Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Don't Believe The Hype - Slowing Unemployment

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) released figures today that purport to show that the ongoing rise in unemployment is slowing, climbing by a "mere" 30,000 in Q3 of this year to 2.46M ("experts" had been predicting 2.5M).

Doubtless the government and other organisations may well spin this as signs of a recovery. However, before popping the champagne corks, the following needs to be taken into account:

1 There are still 30,00 more people out of work than there were in Q2.

2 ONS figures are notoriously unreliable.

3 Q3 ended two months ago, the figures are not real time and are irrelevant for decision making.

4 The true number of "unemployed" are hidden by government schemes that hold people off the register (eg work experience schemes, creation of "non" universities etc).

The figures are meaningless.

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