China Screws With The Hang Seng

Futures Slide As Asian Stocks Plunge To 2021 Lows https://t.co/EVr5nVG9sS

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 27, 2021

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UK Growth Fastest Since The War

Forecasts published by EY Item Club predict that the UK economy will grow 7.6% this year, the fastest pace of expansion since 1941.

The recent burst in consumer spending triggered by the lifting of restrictions to curb the spread of the virus has prompted forecasters to up their expectations for output growth.

The firm also predicted that the UK economy is likely to recovery faster than other economies due to spending rising rapidly in the services industry, which the economy heavily relies on.

Martin Beck, senior economic advisor to the EY Item Club, is quoted by City AM: 

“Vaccines have played a key role in bringing forward the reopening of the economy and have been a key factor in the upgrades of the forecast throughout this year.

Compared to other economies, the UK is much more dependent on consumer spending on services, such as recreation and leisure activities, which meant that lockdowns had a greater economic impact here than elsewhere. Reopening these face-to-face parts of the economy means the UK should have a correspondingly faster recovery.”

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Don't Panic About Inflation Blip

BANK OF ENGLAND'S BROADBENT SAYS I’M NOT CONVINCED THAT THE CURRENT INFLATION IN RETAIL GOODS PRICES SHOULD IN AND OF ITSELF MEAN HIGHER INFLATION 18-24 MONTHS AHEAD, THE HORIZON MORE RELEVANT FOR MONETARY POLICY

— Michael Brown (@MrMBrown) July 22, 2021

 

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Tight Policy Isn't The Right Policy!

Haskel cementing his place as the most dovish mpc member

BANK OF ENGLAND'S HASKEL SAYS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, IN MY VIEW, TIGHT POLICY ISN’T THE RIGHT POLICY

— Michael Brown (@MrMBrown) July 19, 2021

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US Issues Risk Advisory for Hong Kong

*U.S. ISSUED ADVISORY ABOUT RISKS TO OPERATIONS IN HONG KONG
*U.S.: RISKS FACED IN CHINA INCREASINGLY PRESENT IN HONG KONG

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 16, 2021

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CPI Hits 2.5% - Driven by Used Car Prices

CPI hit 2.5% in June, pushed in a large part by used car prices which rose the most on record in the UK in June.

The cost of previously-owned vehicles rose 4.4% in June, the most since records began in 1996, and contributed to an unexpected 2.5% increase in consumer prices, the Office for National Statistics said this morning. The ONS said consumers were paying more to avoid trains and buses.

The demand for used cars is driven by a shortage of new cars, as a result of car production delays for new vehicles caused by a shortage in semiconductors sending prices surging.

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Question for Wetherspoons

 

The BBC reports the following:

Wetherspoons says it will have to put up the price of food in its pubs by around 40p a meal if a VAT cut for the hospitality industry is not extended.

The tax was slashed on food sold in pubs from 20% to 5% during the pandemic to help struggling businesses.

But it is set to return to normal levels, in stages, over the next year, rising to 12.5% in September 2021.

The chain, which has 860 pubs, said it would "make the entire hospitality industry less competitive".

The BBC has contacted the Treasury for a comment.

"It is an important principle of taxation that taxes should be fair and equitable," Wetherspoons said, adding that its own price rises would come in from September.

"One area of undoubted unfairness, which creates economic distortions, relates to VAT. Supermarkets pay zero VAT on food, but pubs and restaurants pay 20%, in normal circumstances."

My question to Wetherspoons is this, when the VAT rates were reduced did you pass that on to your customers via reduced prices?

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Blue Horseshoe Loves Morrisons

 

Apollo Global, a US investment firm is considering making a rival offer for Morrisons, days after the UK supermarket agreed to a £6.3bn ($8.7bn) takeover.

It is the third firm to show an interest in the UK chain in two months, fuelling speculation of a bidding war.

On Saturday, Morrisons accepted an offer by another US investment group led by the owner of Majestic Wine.

The takeover bid - led by US private equity firm Fortress Investment Group - is subject to shareholder approval, but the supermarket group's directors are recommending it is accepted.

Morrisons' shares are up 11% on the start of the day, and are trading at a three year high.

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Nissan Jobs Boost for Sunderland and Port Talbot

Nissan has announced a major £1BN expansion of electric vehicle production at its car plant in Sunderland which will create 1,650 new jobs.

The Japanese carmaker says it will build its new-generation all-electric model at the site. Its partner, Envision AESC, will also build a new electric battery plant.

Production of the new model will create 909 new jobs and more than 4,500 in its UK supply chain.

Other production locations have not yet been confirmed. More details about the new vehicle will be released closer to the car's launch date.

Envision's new gigafactory will eventually provide batteries to power up to 100,000 Nissan electric vehicles a year. It will create 750 new jobs and secure 300 existing roles.

It is hoped the new plant will operational in time for 2024, when the level of UK-made components in cars manufactured in the UK is required to start increasing, in line with the terms of the UK's trade deal with the EU.

The majority of Nissan's Sunderland-assembled cars are sold in the EU.

Around half the steel used in production at NMUK (Sunderland) comes from Port Talbot, this is therefore a big boost for Welsh steel too.

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House Price Rate Rise Highest Since 2004

Houses prices rose at the fastest pace in more than 16 years in June, jumping 13.4pc year-on-year as buyers rushed to snap up homes before the end of the stamp duty holiday. 

Nationwide said the average house price increased to £245,432 from £216,403 in June 2020.

Nationwide chief economist Robert Gardner said prices were "close to a record high" in relation to average incomes, which he added "makes it even harder" for first-time buyers.

He told the BBC the pandemic had "stimulated" the housing market.

Mr Gardner said lots of people had "reassessed what they want from home" in terms of space and where they live as a result of the coronavirus lockdowns.

"The pandemic is an unusual kind of shock - it has stimulated housing market activity rather than the shock holding back the market which is normally what happens."

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Bank of England Leaves Monetary Policy Unchanged

New: Bank of England says it now expects UK CPI inflation to rise to 3% in the coming months. But insists it will then drop down towards its 2% target pic.twitter.com/YWIoMpIdN1

— Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky) June 24, 2021

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Government Borrowing Falling

Government borrowing on a 12-month rolling basis is falling from its record high of 14.3%, according to data released today by the @ONS.

But it is still 2% of national income above the previous peak during the financial crisis over the 12 months to January 2010. pic.twitter.com/X79reKQr4g

— Institute for Fiscal Studies (@TheIFS) June 22, 2021

UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (May) act: £23.6bn, exp: £24.3bn, prev: £31bn.

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Bermuda Sticks Two Fingers Up To Global Tax Reform

Bermuda's response to global tax reform proposals, intended to prevent giant corporations getting away with paying almost nothing in tax: we're okay.https://t.co/8o1B1MTK52 pic.twitter.com/e92gRb2Atu

— Oliver Bullough (@OliverBullough) June 22, 2021

If it ain't broke, don't fix it!

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The Trans Pacific Trade Deal - Giant Oaks from Little Acorns Grow!

Govt releases macroeconomic study of joining Trans Pacific Trade deal... based on existing members, it is a relatively modest £1.8bn in 15 year’s time, or 0.09% of GDP...

DIT points to possibility of other nations, say Thailand and the S Korea joining boosting it to 5.5bn/ 0.3% pic.twitter.com/dyc25PSVOi

— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) June 22, 2021

 

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Government To Raid Pensions

The government are drawing up plans to raid pensions, in order to pay for Covid.

Three reforms are being considered 

- Slashing the £1M lifetime allowance to £800K

- Bringing in a single tax relief rate

 - Taxing employer contributions

Nigel Green, chief executive and founder of deVere Group, warns that savers to should take action now to offset the raid.

He is quoted by London Loves Business:

“Successive governments have a long history of seeing pensions as easy targets when they need to bolster their coffers.

I would suggest that if this option of slashing the pensions lifetime allowance has been leaked in advance to the media, there’s a very good chance that it will happen.

This reported move by the Treasury would be a stinging, stealthy raid on pension savings.

It would be a slap in the face for those who have worked hard and saved hard, prudently putting money aside in order to be able to enjoy their retirement with loved ones.”

There’s a much, much bigger cohort of people who should be taking action now to mitigate the financial hit of the possible slashing of the lifetime allowance.

It’s not just those who already have a pension over £1m. Others need to look ahead and assess if future contributions and investment growth could drag them into a position in which they’ll be above the threshold.

But many savers are simply unaware of the impact of these reported moves by the Treasury on their retirement income.

There are various measures that can be put in place to avoid the LTA reduction fallout.

This move would serve as a disincentive to save as much as possible for retirement– and therefore it could be harmful to Britain’s long-term economic success,” affirms Mr Green.

I believe the reports on the potential plunder of pensions have merit. The pandemic has provided the government with a reason to do so.

Many more people than you might think would be affected by such a move.

There are steps to be taken to mitigate the hit. I would suggest people seek advice sooner rather than later.”

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