ONS Data Debacle: £2 Billion Borrowing Blunder Exposes UK's Broken Statistics Machine in 2025

 

In a year already marred by a torrent of statistical scandals, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has delivered yet another humiliating blow to its credibility. On October 8, 2025, the agency sheepishly admitted to overstating UK public sector net borrowing by a staggering £2 billion for the January to August period, thanks to a glaring error in value-added tax (VAT) receipts data supplied by HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC). This isn't just a minor slip—it's the latest symptom of an institution in freefall, churning out unreliable figures that mislead policymakers, rattle markets, and erode public trust. As economists scramble to untangle the mess, one thing remains painfully clear: ONS data in 2025 isn't just inaccurate—it's worse than worthless.

The VAT Fiasco: How ONS Got the Nation's Finances Spectacularly Wrong

Picture this: Treasury officials and investors poring over ONS reports, basing billion-pound decisions on provisional borrowing figures pegged at £83.8 billion for the fiscal year to date. Then, poof—overnight, that number shrinks to £81.8 billion after HMRC confesses to botching its VAT cash receipts reporting. The error? An omission of key payment streams, inflating the deficit outlook by £2 billion and handing Chancellor Rachel Reeves an unexpected £3 billion windfall for her upcoming Budget.

HMRC has owned up, stating it "identified an error in our VAT cash receipts outturn which impacts provisional 2025 to 2026 year to date receipts," boosting April to August figures by £2.4 billion. But make no mistake: ONS, as the guardian of these stats, bears the brunt. This revision doesn't just tweak the numbers—it rewrites the fiscal narrative, potentially easing pressure on borrowing costs and altering spending plans. Yet, in true ONS fashion, the correction arrived months late, after the damage was done.

For businesses and households grappling with economic uncertainty, this isn't abstract. Faulty borrowing data fuels higher interest rates, spooks the bond market, and distorts everything from tax forecasts to infrastructure investments. If you're searching for "ONS borrowing error 2025" or "UK public finances VAT mistake," you're not alone—queries like these have spiked as frustration boils over.

2025: ONS's Year of Relentless Inaccuracies and Delays

This VAT debacle isn't an isolated hiccup; it's the cherry on top of a 2025 catastrophe for the ONS. From retail sales to inflation, jobs, trade, and GDP growth, the agency's outputs have been a parade of provisional promises followed by painful revisions. Critics are calling it a "data quality slump," with regulators demanding urgent fixes.

• Retail Sales Shenanigans: In August, ONS delayed its monthly release over "quality concerns," sparking fresh doubts about data reliability that underpins policy. When the figures finally dropped in September, they revealed weaker-than-expected growth: quarterly retail sales revised down from 1.3% to 0.7% in Q1 2025, with July's monthly uptick at just 0.6% after error corrections. This isn't progress—it's proof of systemic rot, leaving retailers and economists "flying blind."

• Inflation and Growth Gaffes: Back in March, ONS issued stark warnings about errors in its GDP figures, tied to flawed price data that skews the economy's true size. Inflation metrics, crucial for Bank of England rate decisions, have fared no better, with cascading revisions muddying the post-pandemic recovery picture.

• Jobs and Trade Turmoil: Unemployment and trade balance stats have been equally unreliable, with delays and downgrades eroding confidence. An independent review in June slammed ONS's "performance and culture," highlighting underfunding and poor prioritisation that delayed error detection across teams.

By April, the agency was so battered it announced cuts to non-core data work to refocus on essentials—admitting, in effect, that it couldn't handle the basics. Fears now swirl that these woes could torpedo Reeves's Budget, with sources warning of a "muddied economic picture" for the Treasury. If 2025's ONS track record teaches us anything, it's that "provisional" often means "profoundly wrong."

No Accountability, No Change: Why ONS Firings Are as Rare as Accurate Data

Here's the kicker in this farce: accountability? Forget it. As per the dismal tradition of UK public bodies, no heads will roll at ONS for this litany of failures. The June independent review by Sir Robert Devereux exposed deep cultural failings and capacity shortfalls, yet it led to... more reviews and vague promises. Officials were reportedly "kept in the dark" about internal breakdowns until it was too late, per Bloomberg investigations.

The UK Statistics Authority has labelled reversing this "data quality slump" as "critical," giving ONS a mere four weeks in April to act. But where are the consequences? No resignations, no sackings—just endless hand-wringing from an agency that's cut staff and begged for funds while delivering dross. In a private sector equivalent, CEOs would be ousted faster than you can say "revision." At ONS, it's business as usual: errors excused, trust shattered, and taxpayers foot the bill.

Worse Than Worthless: The Poisonous Ripple Effects of ONS Mistruths

Let's cut the euphemisms—ONS data isn't merely flawed; it's actively harmful. "Worse than worthless" because it doesn't just fail to inform; it misdirects. Policymakers chase ghosts with bogus inflation reads, leading to mistimed rate hikes that crush growth. Markets overreact to phantom borrowing spikes, hiking yields and mortgage rates for families. And for everyday Brits? Garbled jobs data sows job market panic, while skewed retail figures lure investors into dud sectors.

This toxicity extends globally: International bodies like the IMF rely on ONS inputs for UK forecasts, amplifying errors worldwide. In 2025 alone, the cumulative fallout—from delayed retail insights to GDP distortions—has cost the economy dearly in lost productivity and misplaced billions. Searching "ONS data reliability crisis" yields a damning verdict: an institution that's not just useless, but a liability.

Time for Radical Reform: Dismantle the ONS Dinosaur Before It Sinks the UK Economy

Enough is enough. The ONS's 2025 implosion demands more than platitudes—it screams for overhaul. Boost funding? Sure, but tie it to ironclad accuracy benchmarks. Mandate independent audits for high-stakes releases? Absolutely. And yes, enforce real accountability: Fire the architects of this mess and rebuild with tech-savvy talent unburdened by bureaucratic bloat.

Until then, treat every ONS bulletin with scepticism. The £2 billion borrowing blunder is just today's headline; tomorrow's could be catastrophic. For reliable UK economic insights, look beyond the official spin—because in the house of statistics, the emperor has no clothes.

 

UK Government Debt Crisis: ONS September 2025 Figures Reveal Shocking Surge Amid Rachel Reeves' Budget Blunders

 

The UK's public finances are in turmoil, with the latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) data painting a grim picture of escalating government debt and borrowing. Released on September 19, 2025, these figures underscore a deepening fiscal hole that's not just alarming but entirely predictable under Labour's stewardship. As borrowing hits £18 billion in August alone—far exceeding forecasts—questions mount over Chancellor Rachel Reeves' handling of the economy. This article dives into the appalling ONS debt statistics, eviscerates Reeves' recent budget decisions, and exposes Labour's spineless approach to public sector pay rises and unchecked welfare spending, all of which are fuelling this debt disaster.

ONS Debt Figures: A Damning Indictment of Fiscal Mismanagement

The ONS public sector finances bulletin for August 2025 is nothing short of catastrophic. Public sector net borrowing soared to £18 billion, up from £14.4 billion in the same month last year and well above the £14.5 billion economists had anticipated. This marks the second-highest borrowing on record for August, only behind the pandemic-distorted 2020 figures. Over the financial year to August, borrowing totalled £83.8 billion—a staggering £16.2 billion increase compared to 2024.

Debt interest payments are equally horrifying, climbing to £8.4 billion in August alone, £1.9 billion more than last year. Public sector net debt now stands at around 96.1% of GDP, with projections suggesting it could breach 100% if trends continue. These aren't abstract numbers; they're a direct hit on taxpayers, with interest costs alone rivalling entire departmental budgets. The ONS data, updated in September 2025, incorporates revisions that only amplify the crisis, showing how Labour's policies have accelerated the UK's slide into deeper debt.

Experts warn this surge obliterates the Office for Budget Responsibility's (OBR) forecasts, leaving a gaping hole in the government's fiscal plans. With borrowing already £10 billion over target for the year, the stage is set for painful adjustments—likely more tax hikes or spending cuts that will squeeze ordinary families.

Rachel Reeves' Budget: A Recipe for Economic Ruin

Rachel Reeves' 2025 budgets—encompassing the Spring Statement and the upcoming Autumn Budget—have been hailed by Labour as "tough choices" for stability. In reality, they're a masterclass in fiscal incompetence. The June 2025 Spending Review promised a modest 2.3% annual real-terms increase in departmental spending, with £113 billion earmarked for public investment. But these figures mask a deeper rot: Reeves has loosened fiscal rules, allowing £30 billion more in annual borrowing, which has directly inflated debt costs.

Critics, including the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), highlight how Reeves' efficiency targets are pie-in-the-sky, risking a "major fiscal issue" if unmet. Growth forecasts have been slashed, inflation is rebounding, and borrowing is skyrocketing—outcomes directly tied to her policies. Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride has lambasted Reeves for creating a "black hole" through reckless spending, warning that working families will bear the brunt via higher taxes.

Reeves' Spring Statement slashed £15 billion in public spending while funnelling billions to military aid, all while taxes hit a 71-year high through stealth measures like frozen thresholds and increased employer National Insurance. Net Zero pursuits, including shutting down North Sea oil, have jacked up energy imports and bills, adding insult to injury. This isn't prudent management; it's economic sabotage, with borrowing costs now at a 27-year high.

Labour's Weakness on Public Sector Pay Rises: Pandering Over Prudence

One of the most egregious contributors to the debt spike is Labour's capitulation to public sector unions. In 2024/25, pay rises reached up to 6%, followed by above-inflation hikes in 2025: 4% for teachers and doctors, 3.6% for nurses, and 4.5% for the armed forces. These generous deals, accepted amid strike threats, have ballooned the public wage bill without corresponding productivity gains.

The IFS notes that capping pay growth above £21,000 could save billions, but Labour's reluctance to confront unions has led to unchecked spending. Over a fifth of government expenditure goes to pay, yet recruitment and retention issues persist, exacerbating fiscal pressures. This weakness isn't leadership—it's electoral cowardice, directly feeding into higher borrowing as the government scrambles to fund these commitments without reforms.

Ignoring the Welfare Elephant: Costs Spiral Out of Control

Labour's refusal to tackle welfare costs is perhaps the most damning failure. Sickness and disability spending is projected to hit £100 billion by 2030, with taxes already at record highs to cover it. Reeves has floated axing billions in disability benefits to ease debts, but action remains elusive.

Instead of meaningful reforms—like tightening eligibility or promoting work—Labour opts for bandaids, loading billions more onto the debt pile. This inaction, combined with massive costs for asylum hotels (£8 million daily) and foreign aid, exemplifies a government prioritising ideology over fiscal sanity. As Stride warns, this "fantasy economics" will force higher taxes or borrowing, hammering growth.

The Path Forward: Time for Real Change, Not Labour's Excuses

The ONS figures are a wake-up call: UK government debt is spiralling due to Reeves' bungled budgets, Labour's union pandering, and welfare inertia. With tax rises now "inevitable" for the Autumn Budget, ordinary Britons face more pain. Growth is stalled, unemployment rising, and the "black hole" is of Labour's own making.

To reverse this, we need bold reforms: slashing wasteful spending by 35%, reforming welfare, and curbing pay hikes without productivity links. Labour's weakness has brought us here—it's time for accountability before the debt crisis becomes irreversible. Stay informed on UK debt trends and share your thoughts below.

UK Inflation August 2025: 3.8% Rate Stays Above Target, Set to Climb Higher Amid Policy Blunders

In a stark reminder of ongoing economic pressures, the UK's Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation rate held steady at 3.8% for August 2025, well above the Bank of England's 2% target. This figure, released today by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), underscores a persistent cost-of-living squeeze that's far from easing. Worse still, forecasts from the Bank of England and independent economists point to an upward trajectory, with inflation potentially peaking at 4% as early as September and lingering near 4% well into 2026. For households grappling with rising bills, this news spells trouble – and fingers are pointing squarely at Chancellor Rachel Reeves' fiscal missteps and the burdensome net zero agenda.

August 2025 UK Inflation Breakdown: Sticky at 3.8%, But the Pain Is Real

The ONS data confirms that headline CPI inflation remained unchanged at 3.8% year-on-year for August, matching July's rate and marking the highest level since early 2024. Core inflation, which strips out volatile energy and food prices, dipped slightly to 3.6% from 3.8%, offering a sliver of relief in transport costs (up just 2.4%).

Yet, this stability masks deeper woes. Services inflation ticked up to 5.6%, driven by wage pressures and higher utility costs, while overall price rises show no sign of abating. For context, this 3.8% UK inflation rate now outpaces both the US and Eurozone, highlighting Britain's unique vulnerability in a global slowdown.

Inflation Set to Surge: Bank of England Warns of 4% Peak in September 2025

Don't hold your breath for relief – experts are unanimous that UK inflation 2025 is on an upward path. The Bank of England has explicitly forecasted a climb to 4% by September, fuelled by lingering energy shocks and domestic policy drags. More pessimistic outlooks from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) suggest it could breach 5% from late 2025, averaging over 4% through mid-2026.

This trajectory isn't random; it's a direct fallout from government decisions. As borrowing costs rise and the pound weakens, the squeeze on disposable incomes will intensify, potentially stalling the fragile post-recession recovery.

The Culprit: Rachel Reeves' Tax Raid and Net Zero Obsession Fuel the Fire

Make no mistake – this inflation spike bears the fingerprints of Chancellor Rachel Reeves. Her Autumn Statement's £40 billion tax hike on businesses has been lambasted for inflating costs and stifling growth, with industry leaders like the CBI warning it would pass expenses straight to consumers. Businesses report passing on higher employer National Insurance and corporation tax burdens, embedding them into product prices and services – a textbook recipe for entrenched inflation.

Compounding this is the Labour government's zealous pursuit of net zero policies, which critics argue are economically suicidal. Mandates for costly green transitions, including rushed renewable subsidies and carbon taxes, have jacked up energy and manufacturing expenses without delivering promised efficiencies. Reeves herself has hinted at prioritising growth over net zero if push comes to shove, yet her administration ploughs ahead with airport expansion blocks and EV mandates that inflate import costs amid global supply chain woes. The Spectator nails it: Reeves' policies have a "clear link" to the 3.5%+ spikes we've seen, turning what could have been a soft landing into a hard thud.

Food Inflation Soars to 5.1%: A Basket of Pain for British Families

No corner of the economy feels this inflation more acutely than the supermarket aisle. Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices jumped 5.1% in the year to August 2025 – the highest in 18 months and up from 4.9% in July. Staples like beef, coffee, and chocolate have seen double-digit surges, driven by poor harvests, import tariffs, and – yes – net zero-driven farming restrictions that crimp domestic supply.

This isn't abstract; it's £500+ extra annually per household on groceries alone, per recent estimates. With food inflation outpacing the headline rate, low-income families are hit hardest, exacerbating inequality in an already strained welfare system.

ONS Data Under Fire: Are UK Inflation Stats Worthless Amid Scepticism?

Adding insult to injury, the very numbers we're dissecting come from the ONS – an institution increasingly viewed with suspicion. While no outright scandals dominate headlines in 2025, persistent critiques from economists and opposition figures highlight methodological flaws, like underweighting housing costs and over-relying on volatile imports. In a post-Brexit, AI-disrupted world, some argue these stats are "worthless" for real-time policy, painting an overly rosy picture that delays action. Reeves' team leans on them to downplay the crisis, but businesses and households know better – the real inflation bite is felt daily.

What Lies Ahead for UK Inflation in 2025 and Beyond?

As September's 4% peak looms, the UK faces a pivotal moment. Without a U-turn on tax hikes and a pragmatic rethink of net zero timelines, inflation could entrench at levels unseen since the 1980s, eroding savings and fuelling wage demands. The Bank of England may hold rates steady, prolonging the pain for mortgage holders.

For now, savvy savers should lock in high-yield accounts before rates fall, while policymakers – starting with Reeves – must prioritise growth over ideology. Britain's economic story in 2025 isn't written yet, but at 3.8% and rising, it's a chapter no one wants to read.

Starmer's Budget Board Exposed: A Cabal of Left-Wing Tax Zealots Undermining Rachel Reeves

In a move that's already sparking outrage among fiscal conservatives and business leaders, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has unveiled his so-called "Budget Board" – a shadowy committee designed to steer the nation's economic policy ahead of the November 26 budget. But far from being a balanced panel of experts, this board is stacked with left-wing ideologues whose track records scream high-tax fanaticism. It's not just a policy misstep; it's a direct slap in the face to Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who, if she had any shred of honour left, would resign immediately. This article dives deep into why Starmer's Budget Board is a recipe for economic disaster, loaded with SEO-optimised insights for those searching for "Keir Starmer Budget Board criticism," "left-wing tax zealots UK," and "Rachel Reeves resignation calls."

What Is Keir Starmer's Budget Board and Why Was It Created?

Announced amid growing tensions with the business community, the Budget Board is purportedly aimed at boosting economic growth and mending fractured relations with City leaders and corporations. According to reports, it's a committee of ministers, officials, and external advisors that will oversee policy decisions, focusing on growth measures while keeping lines open to the private sector. Starmer's allies claim it was jointly agreed upon with Reeves, but the optics tell a different story – this is Starmer consolidating power in No. 10, effectively sidelining the Treasury.

Critics argue it's nothing more than a Potemkin village, a facade to appease businesses while paving the way for more tax hikes in the upcoming Winter Budget. With the UK economy already staggering under Labour's policies, this board's creation signals a deeper entrenchment of socialist-leaning oversight, prioritising ideological purity over pragmatic growth strategies. For anyone Googling "Keir Starmer economic policy failure," this is exhibit A.

The Members: A Roster of Left-Wing High-Tax Zealots

Let's peel back the curtain on who's really calling the shots. The Budget Board is co-chaired by Minouche Shafik and Torsten Bell, both deeply tied to the Resolution Foundation – a centre-left think tank notorious for advocating aggressive tax increases on wealth and businesses. Their 2023 report pushed for significant tax hikes, painting a picture of a group more interested in redistributing wealth than fostering genuine economic expansion.

• Minouche Shafik: Former director of the London School of Economics and short-lived Columbia University president (who resigned amid scandals), Shafik's involvement screams elite left-wing academia. Her affiliation with the Resolution Foundation's tax-heavy agenda makes her a poster child for high-tax zealotry.

• Torsten Bell: Now a Labour MP and ex-CEO of the Resolution Foundation, Bell has long championed policies that burden high earners and corporations with steeper taxes. His leadership on the board is a clear sign that growth will take a backseat to egalitarian experiments.

Other members include:

• Tim Allan, Starmer's new No. 10 communications chief, known for spin over substance.
• Varun Chandra, a business adviser whose input seems token at best.
• Darren Jones, Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister, another Labour insider.
• Morgan McSweeney, a key political strategist with deep roots in left-wing organising.

This isn't a diverse board; it's a echo chamber of progressive tax enthusiasts. If you're searching for "Resolution Foundation tax policies criticism," you'll find plenty of evidence that these folks prioritise soaking the rich over stimulating investment. Their presence guarantees more red tape and revenue grabs, not the pro-business reforms the UK desperately needs.

A Direct Insult to Rachel Reeves: Time for Her to Resign?

Perhaps the most damning aspect of this Budget Board is how it undermines Chancellor Rachel Reeves. Reports describe it as a "hammer blow" to her authority, with Starmer seizing direct control over economic policy and bypassing the Treasury. Reeves, who has been trying to project an image of fiscal responsibility, now finds herself overshadowed by a committee packed with ideologues who could push for even more radical measures.

If Reeves had any honour, she'd resign immediately. This setup isn't just a policy disagreement; it's a clear vote of no confidence in her leadership. By allowing Starmer to "beef up" this committee, she's complicit in her own marginalisation. For those querying "Rachel Reeves insulted by Starmer," the evidence is mounting – this board is a blatant power grab that insults her role as Chancellor.

The Broader Economic Fallout: More Taxes, Less Growth

Starmer's Budget Board isn't about growth; it's about control. With members advocating for tax hikes amid an already strained economy, expect the November budget to feature painful increases that stifle investment and job creation. Businesses, already wary of Labour's direction, will see this as confirmation that the government is hostile to free enterprise.

The irony? The board's stated goal of mending relations with the City is laughable when its leaders have histories of pushing anti-business policies. This could lead to capital flight, reduced FDI, and a prolonged stagnation – all while left-wing zealots pat themselves on the back for "fairness."

Conclusion: Dismantle the Budget Board Before It's Too Late

Keir Starmer's Budget Board is a farce – a collection of left-wing high-tax zealots that insults Rachel Reeves and threatens the UK's economic future. If Reeves won't resign over this blatant power play, voters should demand accountability at the ballot box. For more on "Keir Starmer Budget Board scandal" or "UK tax zealots exposed," stay tuned as this story unfolds. 

Share your thoughts in the comments: Is this the beginning of the end for Labour's economic credibility?

Cracker Barrel’s Disastrous Logo Rebrand Reversal - Go Woke, Go Broke!

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store’s ill-fated attempt to modernise its iconic logo and brand identity has ended in a humiliating retreat, with the company recently announcing a reversal to its classic “Uncle Herschel” logo after a $100 million market value wipeout. The August 2025 rebrand, which ditched the beloved barrel and folksy aesthetic for a sterile, text-only design, sparked fierce customer backlash and proved the adage “go woke, go broke.” Despite warnings from major investor Sardar Biglari in 2024, the board’s catastrophic misstep under CEO Julie Felss Masino demands a leadership overhaul to restore trust and drive a share price recovery.

The Rebrand Debacle: A Betrayal of Cracker Barrel’s Roots

Cracker Barrel launched its “All the More” campaign, spearheaded by CEO Julie Felss Masino, aiming to make the 56-year-old Southern chain more “relevant.” The centrepiece was a new logo that replaced the nostalgic image of an old man in overalls leaning against a barrel with a bland, yellow-backed text design. The move obliterated the brand’s rustic charm, infuriating customers who cherished its Americana heritage. Social media erupted, with posts from figures like Donald Trump Jr. and the “End Wokeness” account (nearly 4 million followers) slamming the “woke” redesign. Even the Democratic Party’s X account called it a flop. The fallout was immediate: shares crashed up to 15%, erasing nearly $100 million in market value in a single day, with trading volume spiking to four million shares against a daily average of one million.

Ignoring Investor Warnings: A Board’s Fatal Flaw

The board’s decision to push the rebrand ignored explicit warnings from major investor Sardar Biglari, who, in 2024, issued four scathing critiques, including a 120-page slide deck titled “CRACKER BARREL IS IN CRISIS.” Biglari, a significant shareholder and Steak ‘n Shake owner, warned that the “obvious folly” of the rebrand would alienate Cracker Barrel’s core audience. He highlighted the stock’s decline from $180 in 2018 to around $55 by August 2025, noting that a $100 investment in 2019 was worth just $30 by 2024. The board dismissed his concerns, approving a $700 million transformation plan that included modernised decor and menu changes, further eroding the brand’s identity.

Going Woke, Going Broke: A Reversal Too Late?

The phrase “go woke, go broke” rang true as customers boycotted the chain, likening the rebrand to Bud Light’s 2023 marketing disaster. Marketing experts, like David E. Johnson of Strategic Vision PR Group, called the logo a “flop,” warning that legacy brands must preserve their cultural core. Carreen Winters of MikeWorldWide noted that in a polarised climate, even neutral changes can spark political backlash. Facing mounting pressure, including calls from country singer John Rich and President Donald Trump to revert the logo, Cracker Barrel announced in 2025 that it would restore the original “Uncle Herschel” design. While the reversal is a step toward appeasing fans, the damage to the brand’s reputation and finances lingers.

The Path Forward: Sack the CEO and Board for a Stock Surge

Restoring the logo is not enough—Cracker Barrel’s board and CEO Julie Felss Masino must be held accountable for the rebrand’s failure. Their refusal to heed Biglari’s warnings and their misjudgment of the brand’s customer base triggered a preventable crisis. Sacking Masino and overhauling the board could signal a commitment to restoring Cracker Barrel’s heritage, rebuilding customer trust, and boosting investor confidence. The stock, at $55.42 in August 2025 (up 7% year-to-date but far below its $180 peak in 2018), could see a significant rally with decisive leadership changes and a return to the brand’s roots.

Conclusion: A Lesson in Leadership Failure

Cracker Barrel’s logo rebrand disaster, now reversed, underscores the perils of straying from a brand’s cultural identity. The board’s dismissal of Sardar Biglari’s 2024 warnings led to a $100 million market value loss and a PR nightmare. While reinstating the classic logo is a positive move, the damage demands accountability. Firing CEO Julie Felss Masino and replacing the board are critical steps to restore Cracker Barrel’s legacy and drive a share price recovery. This American icon can reclaim its place in customers’ hearts and investors’ portfolios—but only with leadership that respects its heritage.

Whither The July Retail Sales Figures? - ONS Delays Publication

 

The ONS, the thoroughly useless and ridiculed statistical agency that revises figures on a daily basis, has managed to destroy its reputation even further by delaying the publication of the July retail sales figures.

Apparently, according to the ONS, the delay is to allow for further quality assurance.

The real reason, so I am led to believe, is that the figures are so appalling that no one in the government has the guts to release them. 

UK Inflation Hits 3.8% in July 2025: A Dreadful Surge Amid Failed Forecasts and Policy Missteps

In a stark reminder of the ongoing economic pressures facing British households, the latest UK inflation figures released on August 20, 2025, reveal a concerning uptick. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.8% in the 12 months to July 2025, up from 3.6% in June—the highest level since January 2024. This hotter-than-expected reading has dashed hopes for swift relief from high prices, underscoring the fragility of the UK's recovery post-pandemic and amid global uncertainties. As families grapple with rising costs, this article delves into the causes behind the increase, the glaring failure of economic experts to predict it, and the inevitable slowdown in Bank of England interest rate cuts.

Understanding the Latest UK Inflation Figures

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) data, published today, paints a grim picture for the UK economy. CPI inflation climbed to 3.8%, surpassing market expectations of 3.7% and even edging above the Bank of England's (BoE) forecast of around 3.76%. This marks the second consecutive month of rising inflation, reversing the downward trend seen earlier in the year when rates dipped below 3%.

Key highlights from the July 2025 data include:

- Monthly CPI Increase: Prices rose by 0.2% from June to July, driven by seasonal and sector-specific factors. 

- Comparison to Previous Periods: Up from 3.6% in June 2025 and significantly higher than the 2% target set by the BoE. 

- Broader Economic Context: This surge comes despite earlier optimism, with inflation now projected to peak at 4% in September before potentially easing.

For everyday consumers, this translates to higher bills for essentials, eroding purchasing power and fuelling discontent across the nation.

Causes of the UK Inflation Increase: Spotlight on Rachel Reeves' Budget

While external factors like global supply chain disruptions and energy volatility play a role, the July spike is attributed to a mix of domestic and international pressures. Notably, sharp rises in airfares, food costs, and fuel prices were the primary culprits, according to the ONS. Airfares alone surged due to summer demand and lingering airline recovery issues, while food inflation ticked up amid poor harvests and import challenges.

However, a significant domestic contributor has been the fiscal policies outlined in Chancellor Rachel Reeves' spring statement and anticipated autumn budget measures. Delivered in March 2025, Reeves' spring budget emphasised growth through targeted spending but avoided immediate tax hikes, forecasting average inflation at just 3.2% for the year. Critics argue that this approach—coupled with plans for significant tax rises in the upcoming autumn budget—has injected uncertainty and upward pressure on prices.

Reeves' strategy, which includes trimming spending in some areas while maintaining fiscal rules, has been linked to higher borrowing costs and a slowdown in growth, indirectly fuelling inflation. For instance, increased government spending on public services and infrastructure, without corresponding revenue boosts, has stimulated demand at a time when supply remains constrained. This fiscal loosening echoes past policy errors, where expansionary budgets have historically amplified inflationary trends. Additionally, the bond market's reaction to Reeves' plans has raised debt servicing costs, passing on higher expenses to consumers and businesses.

Other causes include: 

- Energy and Commodity Prices: Lingering effects from global events, pushing up household bills. 

- Wage Growth: Persistent pay increases in key sectors, adding to cost-push inflation. 

- Supply Chain Issues: Post-Brexit frictions and international trade tensions exacerbating import costs.

These factors, amplified by Reeves' budget decisions, have created a perfect storm for price rises.

The Failure of Experts and Economists to Predict the Rise

As usual, the so-called "experts" and economists have been caught off guard by this inflation surge. Forecasts from the BoE and market analysts pegged July's rate at 3.7% or lower, underestimating the impact of real-world price pressures that ordinary people have been vocal about for months. Social media and public sentiment have long highlighted skyrocketing grocery bills and travel costs, yet these warnings were dismissed in favour of optimistic models.

This isn't an isolated incident. Earlier in 2025, the BoE's Monetary Policy Report projected a milder trajectory, with CPI expected to hover around 3.5% in Q2 before easing. Independent forecasters, including those from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), anticipated inflation remaining above 3% but failed to account for the July acceleration. The disconnect stems from overreliance on outdated data and models that ignore grassroots economic signals, such as consumer complaints about everyday expenses.

In contrast, anecdotal evidence from shoppers and small businesses has consistently pointed to persistent price hikes, proving once again that "everyone else" often has a better grasp of on-the-ground realities than ivory-tower predictions.

Bank of England Forced to Curtail Interest Rate Decreases

The hotter inflation print has immediate implications for monetary policy. Just weeks after cutting the base rate to 4% in early August—the first reduction since March 2023—the BoE now faces pressure to pause further cuts. Economists warn that persistent inflation above 3% could delay the path to the 2% target, potentially pushing rate reductions into late 2025 or beyond.

The BoE's own projections indicate inflation peaking at 4% in September, but today's data raises the risk of even higher figures, denting hopes for aggressive easing. This curtailment means higher borrowing costs for mortgages, loans, and businesses, prolonging the squeeze on households. As one analyst noted, "Sticky UK inflation" could force the BoE to maintain a hawkish stance longer than anticipated.

Conclusion: Navigating the Road Ahead for UK Inflation

The July 2025 inflation figures are a wake-up call for policymakers, highlighting the dangers of fiscal policies like those in Reeves' budget that fail to tame demand-side pressures. With experts once again proven wrong and the BoE likely to slow rate cuts, UK consumers face a tougher winter. To combat this, targeted measures—such as supply-side reforms and prudent spending—are essential. Stay tuned for updates as the autumn budget approaches, which could either alleviate or exacerbate these trends.

For more on UK inflation trends, expert failures, and economic policy impacts, follow my coverage on rising costs in 2025.

Bank of England Cuts Interest Rates to 4.00% as Economy Slows

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced today a 25 basis point cut to the UK base rate, bringing it from 4.25% to 4.00%. The decision, revealed at midday, reflects growing concerns over economic weakness despite persistent inflationary pressures, marking the fifth reduction in the current easing cycle that began in August 2024.

The MPC’s move was widely anticipated by economists, with market pricing and expert forecasts pointing to a cut as Britain’s economy contracted for two consecutive months in April and May 2025. Official figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported a 0.1% GDP contraction in May, following a 0.3% decline in April, alongside a rise in unemployment to 4.7%—the highest in nearly four years. These indicators, coupled with weakening business confidence and a slowdown in wage growth, tipped the scales in favour of easing monetary policy to stimulate growth.

However, the decision was not unanimous, reflecting the delicate balance the MPC is navigating. Inflation, which rose to 3.6% in June 2025 from 3.4% in May, remains well above the Bank’s 2% target. External pressures, including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the impact of US trade policies under President Donald Trump, have fuelled concerns about oil prices and potential inflationary shocks. Despite these risks, the MPC prioritised economic growth, with Governor Andrew Bailey signalling earlier in July that larger cuts could be considered if the labour market showed further signs of deterioration.

The vote was expected to be contentious, with analysts predicting a potential three-way split among the nine-member committee. At the June 2025 meeting, three members—Swati Dhingra, Dave Ramsden, and Alan Taylor—voted for a cut to 4.00%, while six favoured holding rates steady. Today’s decision saw a narrower majority, with some members, including Catherine Mann, likely advocating for no change due to inflation concerns, and others, such as Dhingra, possibly pushing for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut.

Economic Context and Rationale

The MPC’s decision comes against a backdrop of mixed economic signals. While inflation remains a concern, the Bank expects it to peak at 3.7% in September before gradually declining through late 2025 and into 2026, as the impact of earlier shocks, such as Trump’s tariffs and April’s increases in employers’ National Insurance contributions and the National Minimum Wage, fades. The committee emphasised a “gradual and careful” approach, consistent with its pattern of quarterly 25 basis point cuts over the past year.

Tom Stevenson, investment director at Fidelity International, noted the MPC’s challenge: “The UK economy contracted sharply in April, wage growth has slowed, and unemployment is creeping up. There’s a clear case for lowering borrowing costs to kick-start growth. Yet, inflation at 3.6% and rising oil prices due to Middle East tensions complicate the outlook.”

Implications for Consumers and Businesses

The rate cut is expected to provide some relief to borrowers, particularly those with mortgages. The average two-year fixed-rate mortgage has already fallen to 5.02%, and the five-year deal to 5.01%, significantly lower than their peaks of 6.85% and 6.37% in August 2023. Further reductions in borrowing costs could make homeownership more affordable, potentially boosting the housing market, which has seen a recent uptick in prices.

However, savers may face challenges as savings rates, which tend to correlate with the base rate, are likely to decline further. Best-buy cash accounts have already seen rates drop since last summer, with some providers introducing temporary bonuses to attract deposits.

For businesses, particularly those with international operations, the cut could weaken the pound, impacting currency-sensitive transactions. A weaker GBP may reduce profit margins for firms repatriating overseas earnings but could enhance competitiveness for UK exporters.

Looking Ahead

Economists remain divided on the pace of future cuts. ING and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predict one additional cut in November, bringing the base rate to 3.75% by year-end, while Deutsche Bank forecasts three cuts, potentially lowering the rate to 3.5% by December. Pantheon Macroeconomics, however, expects only one more cut this year, citing persistent inflationary pressures.

The MPC’s next meeting on September 18, 2025, will be closely watched for signals of further easing. With inflation expected to remain above target for the remainder of 2025 and external risks like Middle East conflicts and US tariffs looming, the committee’s cautious approach is likely to persist.[](https://moneyweek.com/economy/when-is-the-next-bank-of-england-interest-rate-mpc-meeting)[](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02802/)

George Vessey, lead strategist at Convera, suggested that today’s cut may not be followed by strong commitments to further reductions: “With inflation surprising to the upside, the MPC is unlikely to pre-commit to more easing after today.”

Conclusion

Today’s decision underscores the Bank of England’s attempt to balance economic growth with inflation control in an uncertain global environment. While the rate cut offers a lifeline to borrowers and may stimulate economic activity, the MPC’s gradual approach reflects ongoing concerns about inflation and external shocks. As the UK navigates a stuttering economy, all eyes will remain on the Bank’s future moves to gauge the trajectory of monetary policy in 2025 and beyond.

How Markets Work

🤣 Never forget when my friend Jamie, a LIFFE floor trader, was asked to explain the markets he was trading, during an interview..

Actual Quote -

"See that number? That's the bund. It has got some shit to do with Germany but all you need to know is it goes up and down and…

— PiQ (@PiQSuite) August 3, 2025

UK’s Public Debt Soars to Record Highs: A Fiscal Crisis Looms

 
On July 22, 2025, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released alarming figures revealing that the UK’s public sector net debt (PSND) reached £2.85 trillion in June 2025, equivalent to 97.2% of GDP—the highest debt-to-GDP ratio since the early 1960s. Public sector net borrowing for June alone hit £20.7 billion, £3.2 billion above economists’ estimates of £17.5 billion and £6.6 billion more than June 2024, marking the second-highest June borrowing since records began in 1993. Once again, economists’ forecasts have missed the mark, raising questions about their reliability. With debt interest payments now six times higher than in 2020, the UK is hurtling toward a fiscal crisis that threatens economic stability, public services, and future generations.

A Debt Burden at Unprecedented Levels

The June 2025 figures underscore a grim reality: the UK’s debt-to-GDP ratio has climbed from 95.9% in June 2024 to 97.2%, driven by persistent deficits and economic stagnation. Borrowing for the financial year to June 2025 reached £58.4 billion, £7.5 billion higher than the same period last year and £17.8 billion above the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) March 2025 forecast of £40.6 billion. The OBR’s projections have been consistently off, underestimating borrowing by £14.6 billion for the full 2024/25 financial year, which ended at £151.9 billion.

Debt interest payments have surged to £105.2 billion annually, six times the £17.5 billion paid in 2020, driven by inflation-linked gilts tied to the Retail Prices Index (RPI). In June 2025, interest payments alone cost £16.4 billion, nearly double the previous year’s figure, reflecting a 3.4% RPI increase. This escalation is crowding out spending on essential services like healthcare and education, with debt interest now rivalling major departmental budgets.

Economists’ Forecasts: Consistently Wrong

Economists and the OBR have once again been caught flat-footed. The OBR’s March 2025 forecast underestimated June’s borrowing by £3.2 billion, part of a broader pattern of miscalculations. Historically, forecasts failed to predict the scale of borrowing during the 2008 financial crisis, the Covid-19 pandemic, and the 2022 energy price shock. The OBR’s own “ready reckoners” admit that forecasts become outdated as economic conditions shift, yet policymakers rely heavily on these flawed projections.

Why are economists so often wrong? Their models struggle to account for rapid changes in inflation, interest rates, and global risks like geopolitical tensions or supply chain disruptions. Posts on X highlight frustration with this disconnect, with users like @asentance calling the deficit “totally unsustainable” and criticising the OBR’s £50 billion forecasting error. Overreliance on short-term data ignores structural challenges like an ageing population and declining tax revenues from decarbonisation, which the OBR itself flags as long-term debt drivers. This persistent failure undermines confidence in economic planning and leaves the government ill-prepared for fiscal shocks.

Why This Debt is Bad for the UK

The UK’s spiralling debt poses severe risks to its economy and society:

1. **Crowding Out Public Services**: At £105.2 billion annually, debt interest payments consume a massive share of the budget, surpassing spending on defence and rivalling education and health. This squeezes funding for hospitals, schools, and infrastructure, exacerbating the strain on public services already weakened by years of austerity.

2. **Vulnerability to Interest Rate Shocks**: Around 25% of UK debt consists of index-linked gilts, which are highly sensitive to inflation. A 1% rise in gilt yields could add £30 billion to annual interest costs. With 10-year gilt yields reaching 4.64% in January 2025—the highest since 2008—the cost of borrowing is climbing, and market confidence is faltering. A loss of investor trust could trigger a gilt sell-off, further driving up yields.

3. **Risk of a Fiscal Crisis**: The OBR warns that without policy changes, debt could hit 270% of GDP by 2070, with June’s figures suggesting an even faster trajectory. Borrowing at 5.5-6% of GDP in 2025/26, as projected by some analysts, is “totally unsustainable,” risking a crisis akin to the 1976 IMF bailout. Such a crisis could force tax hikes, spending cuts, or external bailouts, devastating living standards. X users like @darwin_friend1 warn that this debt burden will “haunt future generations.”

4. **Intergenerational Burden**: An ageing population and shrinking workforce will struggle to support rising pension and healthcare costs, leaving future generations to foot the bill through higher taxes or reduced services. Declining fuel duty revenues as the economy decarbonises further limit fiscal options.

5. **Eroding Market Confidence**: With 31% of gilts held by overseas investors, rising yields and a weakening pound signal growing market unease. A sudden loss of confidence could lead to a liquidity crisis, forcing the government to seek external support, as seen in 1976.

The Path to a Fiscal Crisis

A fiscal crisis occurs when a government cannot meet its obligations without extreme measures like default, bailouts, or severe austerity. June’s £20.7 billion borrowing, combined with a £170 billion annual deficit projection, signals a dangerous trajectory. The OBR’s Richard Hughes has noted that the government’s £9.9 billion fiscal headroom is “not very much” given risks like climate change costs or global economic shocks. A single event—such as a cyberattack or a global interest rate spike—could push borrowing beyond sustainable levels, leading to a plummeting pound, soaring yields, and a potential loss of market access. This would force draconian measures, deepening inequality and eroding public trust.

Conclusion: A Critical Juncture

The UK’s public debt, now at 97.2% of GDP, is a crisis in the making. June 2025’s £20.7 billion borrowing figure, far exceeding forecasts, underscores the failure of economists to predict fiscal realities. With interest payments six times higher than in 2020, the government is trapped in a cycle of borrowing to service debt, leaving little room for public services or economic growth. Urgent action—through spending restraint, revenue increases, or productivity-enhancing reforms—is needed to avert a 1976-style fiscal collapse. The UK stands at a critical juncture; ignoring today’s figures risks catastrophic consequences for the economy and future generations.

UK Unemployment Surges to Four-Year High: Reeves’ Budget Blamed for Jobs Crisis

In a stark blow to the UK economy, the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reveal that unemployment has climbed to 4.7% in the three months to May 2025, marking the highest level in nearly four years. This alarming rise, reported on July 17, 2025, continues a troubling month-on-month increase in joblessness since Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ controversial autumn budget, with critics pointing to her £25 billion tax raid on businesses as the primary culprit.

The ONS data paints a grim picture: payroll numbers have plummeted by 178,000 in the 12 months to June 2025, with a further 41,000 jobs lost between May and June alone. Since Reeves’ budget took effect in April, the UK has seen a staggering 276,000 jobs vanish, including a single-month drop of 109,000 in May—the largest since the 2020 Covid lockdown. The hospitality sector has been particularly hard-hit, with 69,000 jobs lost in pubs, restaurants, and hotels since the budget’s introduction, a sharp reversal from the 18,000 jobs created in the same period last year under the previous government.

Reeves’ budget, unveiled in October 2024, included a £25 billion increase in employer National Insurance Contributions (NICs) and a 6.7% hike in the national living wage, measures that business leaders and economists have branded a “jobs tax.” The impact was immediate, with companies scaling back hiring, freezing recruitment, or cutting staff to offset the sharply rising payroll costs. Julian Jessop, an economics fellow at the Institute of Economic Affairs, described the slump as a “painful lesson in basic economics,” arguing that making it more expensive to employ people inevitably leads to fewer jobs. The British Chambers of Commerce echoed this sentiment, noting that “warning lights” on recruitment and employment were already flashing before the budget’s full effects were felt.

The month-on-month rise in unemployment since April—when the NICs hike took effect—tells a clear story. The unemployment rate rose from 4.4% in the three months to December 2024 to 4.5% in the first quarter of 2025, then to 4.6% in the three months to April, and now to 4.7%. Job vacancies have also continued to slide, dropping by 63,000 in the three months to May, signalling a broader slowdown in the labor market. ONS economic director Liz McKeown underscored the severity of the situation, stating, “The job market continues to weaken. The number of job vacancies is still falling and has now been dropping continuously for three years.”

Critics, including shadow business secretary Andrew Griffith, have been quick to pin the blame on Reeves’ fiscal policies. “Unemployment is the only thing growing under Labour,” Griffith remarked, highlighting the government’s failure to deliver on its pre-election promise of “growth, growth, growth.” Posts on X reflect similar public frustration, with users like @CutMyTaxUK stating, “Tax something more and you get less of it. That’s also true of jobs as Rachel Reeves has proved with her tax hikes on jobs.” Shadow chancellor Mel Stride has warned that the economic fallout from Reeves’ budget is undermining tax revenues, potentially forcing further tax rises or spending cuts to balance the books.

The broader economic context only amplifies concerns. The UK economy shrank by 0.3% in April 2025, following a 0.1% contraction in May, defying expectations of growth and adding pressure on Reeves as she prepares for the upcoming autumn budget. The Institute for Fiscal Studies has cautioned that any further economic downturn could necessitate additional tax hikes, with Reeves’ fiscal headroom already described as hanging by a “gnat’s whisker.” Meanwhile, inflation has climbed to 3.8%, further squeezing businesses and consumers alike.

Reeves has defended her budget, arguing that it aims to “fix the foundations” of the economy and boost long-term growth. However, the immediate fallout—rising unemployment, falling job vacancies, and a shrinking economy—has fueled accusations of economic mismanagement. As one X user put it, “Reeves and her Budget have brought the economy to the cliff edge of catastrophe.” With businesses closing, wealthy individuals reportedly fleeing, and fears of further tax rises looming, the Chancellor faces mounting pressure to reverse course or risk deepening the UK’s jobs recession.

As the nation braces for the next budget, the question remains: can Reeves deliver on her promise to put “more money in people’s pockets,” or will her policies continue to drive jobs and growth into the ground? For now, the unemployment figures serve as a stark reminder of the real-world consequences of her tax-heavy approach, leaving many to wonder if Labour’s economic vision is unravelling before it even takes hold.

UK Inflation Soars to 3.6% - A Predictable Fiasco Ignored by So-Called Experts

In a development that should surprise absolutely no one with a functioning grasp of economics, UK inflation spiked to 3.6% in June 2025, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This marks a jump from May’s 3.4% and a significant leap from December 2024’s 2.5%, cementing the UK’s ongoing struggle with rising prices. Yet, financial pundits and self-proclaimed experts are clutching their pearls, calling this surge “unexpected.” The real shock here isn’t the inflation figure—it’s the collective amnesia of analysts who somehow missed the neon-lit warning signs, particularly those flashing since Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ budget.

Actual vs. Estimated vs. Previous: The Numbers Don’t Lie

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation rate for June 2025 hit 3.6%, up from 3.4% in both April and May, and a far cry from the 2.5% recorded in December 2024. Economists, in their infinite wisdom, had forecasted inflation would hold steady at 3.4%, a prediction that now looks laughably optimistic. The Bank of England’s own May 2025 forecast expected inflation to climb to 3.5% by Q3, while the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) projected a peak of 3.7% around the same period. Both were closer to the mark than the City’s analysts, but even they underestimated the pace of the rise.

Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, climbed to 3.7% in June, up from 3.5% in May, signalling persistent underlying pressures. Services inflation, a key metric for the Bank of England, remained stubbornly high at 4.7%. For context, inflation was at a 41-year high of 11.1% in October 2022, and while we’re nowhere near that level, the steady climb from the 2% target is rattling nerves—and wallets.

The Obvious Culprits: Reeves’ Budget and More

Let’s cut through the noise: this inflation spike was as predictable as rain in Manchester. The main drivers are clear, and they’ve been brewing for months, if not years. First, energy and housing costs continue to bite. The ONS highlighted that transport costs, particularly airfares and rail tickets, surged due to smaller-than-expected declines in fuel prices compared to last year. Food prices also rose at a brisk 4.5%, the highest rate since February 2024. Private rents, meanwhile, climbed 6.7% in the year to May, and house prices ticked up by 3.9%. These aren’t random blips—they’re structural pressures exacerbated by policy choices.

Enter Rachel Reeves’ autumn budget, a masterclass in fiscal recklessness. Her £25 billion increase in employers’ National Insurance contributions and a 6.7% hike in the minimum wage from April 2025 have sent shockwaves through businesses. These costs don’t vanish into thin air; they’re passed on to consumers through higher prices. Add to that the Ofgem energy price cap increase of 1.2% in January, with more rises expected in April, and it’s no wonder inflation is climbing. The budget’s tax hikes and borrowing spree have also fuelled domestic inflationary pressures, as businesses grapple with higher costs and a weaker economic outlook.

Then there’s the global context. Donald Trump’s tariff threats, though partially walked back, have rattled markets and raised fears of imported inflation. Supply chain disruptions lingering from the post-COVID era and the Russia-Ukraine conflict continue to keep energy and food prices volatile. These factors aren’t new, yet the “experts” seem perpetually caught off guard.

The “Unexpected” Farce: Experts in Denial

The chorus of financial pundits crying “shock” at these figures is almost comical. The Independent reported that analysts expected a steady 3.4%, while posts on X echoed the same bewildered tone, with one user lamenting the “huge blow” to Reeves as if this wasn’t written on the wall. The Spectator’s Ross Clark nailed it, pinning the 3.5% spike in April squarely on Reeves’ “economically illiterate” policies, yet the broader analyst community seems to have missed the memo.

Let’s be clear: anyone paying attention could see this coming. Reeves’ budget was a textbook recipe for inflation—higher taxes, increased business costs, and a borrowing binge that spooked markets and pushed up gilt yields. The OBR slashed its 2025 growth forecast to 1%, warning of stagflation risks as early as March. Yet, City economists and talking heads act like this 3.6% figure fell from the sky. Did they miss the ONS reports on rising rents? The Ofgem announcements? The minimum wage hike? Apparently so.

The Bank of England, too, deserves a side-eye. Its “gradual and careful” approach to rate cuts now looks like a tightrope walk over a volcano. With inflation climbing, the odds of an August rate cut from 4.25% to 4% are fading, as higher interest rates may be needed to tame prices—bad news for mortgage holders. Yael Selfin of KPMG UK warned that inflation could hit 4% by autumn, a view echoed by the ONS’s Richard Heys, who pointed to persistent tax-driven pressures.

Reeves’ Response: More Spin Than Substance

Chancellor Reeves, ever the optimist, insists her “number one mission” is “putting more pounds in people’s pockets” through growth. In her Mansion House speech, she doubled down on deregulation and investment to “kickstart” the economy. But with the UK teetering on stagflation—low growth paired with high inflation—her promises ring hollow. The economy shrank by 0.3% in April and again in May, and her fiscal policies are squeezing households and businesses alike. Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride called her budget “economic vandalism,” and for once, the hyperbole isn’t far off.

Reeves’ claim that she’s fighting the cost-of-living crisis is hard to swallow when her policies are directly fuelling it. The Lib Dems’ Ed Davey warned of a “new era of stagflation,” and even Treasury Minister James Murray admitted families are “still finding it hard to make ends meet.” Yet, the government’s response is to double down on spending plans with a razor-thin £9.9 billion surplus projected by the OBR—hardly a buffer if growth stalls further.

The Road Ahead: No Easy Fixes

This inflation spike isn’t a one-off; it’s a symptom of deeper systemic issues. The UK’s economy is caught in a vice of high costs, weak growth, and policy missteps. While Reeves talks up growth, the reality is that businesses are passing on higher costs, households are stretched by rising rents and bills, and the Bank of England is stuck between a rock and a hard place. The 2% inflation target looks increasingly like a distant dream, with forecasts suggesting a peak of 4% later this year.

The pundits’ surprise at these figures is a damning indictment of their tunnel vision. When you raise taxes, hike wages, and ignore global pressures, inflation doesn’t just creep up—it gallops. Instead of feigning shock, these experts should be asking why they didn’t see it coming. The answer? They’re too busy reading their own headlines to notice the real world. For UK households, the cost of this oversight is measured in higher bills, pricier groceries, and fading hopes of relief. Reeves may want “more pounds in pockets,” but right now, those pounds are buying less every day.

Reeves’ Mortgage Rule Loosening: A Recipe for Disaster

Today, Chancellor Rachel Reeves is set to announce a significant relaxation of mortgage lending rules, a move heralded as part of the “Leeds Reforms” aimed at boosting homeownership and economic growth. This policy, which includes increasing access to high loan-to-income (LTI) mortgages—loans exceeding 4.5 times a borrower’s annual salary—and a government-backed guarantee for 95% mortgages, is being sold as a lifeline for first-time buyers. However, this approach is not only reckless but dangerously reminiscent of past financial missteps that fuelled the boom-and-bust cycles of the UK property market. Far from solving the housing crisis, Reeves’ reforms risk inflating an already strained market, endangering borrowers and the wider economy

A Dangerous Echo of the Past

The UK housing market has a long history of volatility driven by lax lending practices. The 2007-08 global financial crisis, triggered in part by subprime lending in the US, was exacerbated in the UK by overly generous mortgage policies that encouraged borrowers to take on unsustainable debt. High LTI mortgages, like those Reeves is championing, were a hallmark of that era. Lenders, emboldened by loose regulations, extended credit to borrowers who could barely afford repayments, inflating house prices to unsustainable levels. When the bubble burst, homeowners faced repossession, banks teetered on collapse, and the economy plunged into recession.

Reeves’ plan to allow banks to increase high LTI mortgages—potentially pushing the proportion of such loans from 9.7% to 11% by the end of 2025—ignores these lessons. The Bank of England’s own data shows that high LTI loans are riskier, as they stretch borrowers’ finances to the breaking point, especially in an environment of volatile interest rates. The 2008 crisis demonstrated that encouraging reckless lending doesn’t just harm individual borrowers; it creates systemic risks that can cripple the financial system. By loosening these caps, Reeves is betting on short-term economic stimulus at the cost of long-term stability, a gamble that history suggests will end badly.

Inflating the Bubble, Not Solving the Crisis

The UK’s housing crisis is fundamentally a supply problem—too few homes for a growing population. Yet Reeves’ reforms focus on demand, pumping more credit into an already overheated market. By enabling buyers to borrow more, the policy will likely drive house prices higher, as increased purchasing power chases a limited number of properties. The Guardian reported in April 2025 that similar loosening of affordability tests by lenders like Santander led to borrowers accessing £10,000 to £35,000 more, but critics warned this could “push up house prices even faster.” Jonathan Moser, CEO of Mo’Living, cautioned that such measures risk “skyrocketing” prices, making homeownership even less attainable for those Reeves claims to help.

The government’s “Freedom to Buy” scheme, which guarantees 95% mortgages, further exacerbates this issue. By covering banks’ losses on these high-risk loans, the Treasury is incentivising lenders to prioritise volume over prudence, echoing the reckless lending practices that preceded the 2008 crash. This artificial boost to demand does nothing to address the root cause of unaffordability—insufficient housing supply. Instead, it risks creating a new generation of homeowners trapped in negative equity if prices collapse, as they did in the early 1990s and post-2008.

The Human Cost of Risky Lending

Reeves’ reforms are being sold as a boon for first-time buyers, with the Bank of England estimating that 36,000 more high LTI mortgages could be issued annually. But this ignores the harsh reality for borrowers. High LTI loans mean higher monthly repayments, leaving households vulnerable to even small interest rate hikes. With the Bank of England’s base rate at 4.25% as of May 2025, and inflation rising to 3.5%, the risk of future rate increases is real. Borrowers stretched to their limits could face default and repossession if economic conditions worsen—a scenario made more likely by global uncertainties like US tariffs and geopolitical tensions.

Posts on X reflect growing public concern, with users like @nickdebois warning that “with increasingly volatile interest rates and unemployment levels, this is risky … and we have been here before.” Another user, @boblister_poole, highlighted fears that Reeves’ push could “end in more people losing their homes.” These sentiments underscore a critical truth: loosening lending rules may offer short-term relief but exposes borrowers to long-term peril.

Economic Folly in a Fragile Global Context

The timing of Reeves’ announcement could not be worse. The UK economy faces headwinds from global trade disruptions, particularly US tariffs under President Trump, which could weaken demand and increase costs for UK businesses. The Bank of England has already noted increased financial instability due to these global shifts, with a weaker US dollar and higher borrowing costs adding pressure. Encouraging households to take on more debt in this environment is akin to pouring fuel on a smouldering fire. If global demand falters or supply costs rise, UK borrowers could face a perfect storm of higher repayments and economic stagnation.

Moreover, the Financial Conduct Authority’s (FCA) earlier moves to relax affordability stress tests in March 2025 have already set the stage for riskier lending. Reeves’ latest reforms double down on this approach, prioritising growth over stability. The FCA’s own data shows that 68% of first-time buyers are taking out mortgages with terms of 30 years or longer, a sign of how stretched finances already are. Further loosening rules risks pushing borrowers into even longer terms or interest-only mortgages, which the FCA is now considering, trapping them in debt for decades.

A Better Path Forward

If Reeves truly wants to tackle the housing crisis, she must shift focus from demand-side gimmicks to supply-side solutions. Increasing housing construction—through streamlined planning permissions, incentives for developers, and investment in social housing—would address the root cause of unaffordability. The Bank of England itself noted that 80% of potential first-time buyers lack the savings for a 5% deposit, highlighting the need for policies that reduce upfront costs rather than inflate borrowing.

Additionally, maintaining prudent lending standards is essential to protect consumers and the economy. The post-2008 regulations, while imperfect, were designed to prevent another crisis. Scrapping them risks repeating past mistakes. Instead, Reeves could explore targeted support for first-time buyers, such as shared ownership schemes or deposit assistance, without destabilising the financial system.

Conclusion

Rachel Reeves’ decision to loosen mortgage rules is a reckless gamble that prioritises short-term political wins over long-term economic stability. By flooding the market with high-risk loans, she risks inflating a property bubble that could burst with devastating consequences for homeowners and the economy. History shows that lax lending fuels boom-and-bust cycles, and today’s fragile global context only heightens the danger. Rather than repeating the mistakes of the past, Reeves should focus on building more homes and supporting buyers without endangering their financial future. The UK housing market deserves better than a policy that bets the house on borrowed time.

UK Economy Shrinks in May 2025: A Shocking Blow to The Expectations of The Ignorant

On July 11, 2025, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the UK economy contracted by 0.1% in May, marking a second consecutive month of decline following a 0.3% drop in April. This unexpected downturn has stunned economists and media experts, who widely anticipated a modest 0.1% expansion. The failure to predict this contraction raises serious questions about the foresight of economic analysts, particularly in light of mounting pressures from domestic policies and global uncertainties. This article examines the reasons behind the GDP fall, with a focus on Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ budget, and highlights why the quarterly GDP figures may be overstated due to significant ONS adjustments.

A Missed Forecast: Why Economists and Media Got It Wrong

The consensus among City economists, as reported by Reuters, was for a slight rebound in May, with expectations of 0.1% growth following April’s contraction. Yet, the ONS data revealed a continued decline, catching analysts off guard. Posts on X echoed this sentiment, with some users arguing that the shrinkage was foreseeable given the economic headwinds. One user remarked, “Nobody in business believes the U.K. economy ‘unexpectedly’ shrank. We knew it was coming,” pointing to Labour’s policies as a key driver. This disconnect suggests that economists and media have underestimated the immediate impact of recent policy changes and global trade disruptions, focusing instead on earlier positive quarterly data that masked underlying weaknesses.

The failure to anticipate this downturn is particularly striking given the clear signals of economic strain. Businesses have been vocal about the pressures from higher taxes and global uncertainties, yet these were seemingly overlooked in mainstream forecasts. This raises concerns about the reliability of economic modelling and the media’s tendency to over-rely on optimistic projections, potentially ignoring on-the-ground realities.

Reasons for the GDP Fall

The May contraction was driven by several factors, with the ONS pinpointing sharp declines in manufacturing and construction as primary culprits. Here’s a breakdown of the key reasons:

1. Rachel Reeves’ Autumn Budget and Tax Rises: - 

The Labour government’s £40bn tax-raising budget in October 2024, particularly the £25bn increase in employer National Insurance contributions (NICs) effective from April 2025, has significantly impacted businesses. Companies have responded by cutting jobs and scaling back investment, with HMRC data showing a loss of 109,000 jobs in May—the largest monthly drop since the 2020 COVID lockdown. Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride labelled this “economic vandalism,” arguing that the budget has dented business confidence and stifled growth. - The budget’s impact was compounded by other measures, such as changes to stamp duty thresholds, which led to a slump in real estate and legal activity in April and May. This contributed to a 0.4% contraction in the services sector in April, with lingering effects into May.

2. Global Trade Uncertainty and Trump’s Tariffs: - 

The global economic environment has been rocked by US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements, which began impacting UK exports in early 2025. The ONS reported a £2bn drop in exports in April, the largest monthly decrease since 1997, as companies faced uncertainty and higher costs. While a US-UK trade deal has mitigated some of the steepest tariffs, the broader “tariff war” has dampened business investment and consumer spending. Reeves herself acknowledged that “uncertainty about tariffs” contributed significantly to the April and May contractions.

3. Sector-Specific Weaknesses: - 

Manufacturing output fell by 0.9% in May, driven by declines in oil and gas extraction, car manufacturing, and the volatile pharmaceutical industry. Construction also contracted by 0.6%, reflecting poor weather and reduced investment. Although the services sector grew by 0.1%, driven by legal firms recovering from stamp duty changes, it was not enough to offset the broader declines. - Retail sales were “very weak,” further signalling subdued consumer demand amid rising inflation and economic uncertainty.

4. Fragile Business and Consumer Confidence: - 

Business surveys, such as the Confederation of British Industry’s growth indicator, have shown firms expecting to cut hiring and raise prices in early 2025 due to increased costs from NICs and a 6.7% rise in the national living wage. Consumer confidence has also waned, with households dipping into savings and real GDP per head falling by 0.2% in Q3 2024. This fragile sentiment has amplified the economic slowdown.

Overstated Quarterly Figures: The ONS Adjustment Issue

While the monthly GDP figures for April and May 2025 paint a grim picture, the quarterly figures tell a different story—one that may be misleadingly optimistic. The ONS reported that the economy grew by 0.5% in the three months from March to May 2025 compared to the previous three months, following a strong 0.7% growth in Q1 2025. However, this quarterly growth is overstated due to significant ONS adjustments and seasonal factors.

- Frontloading in Q1 2025: 

The robust Q1 growth was driven by temporary factors, such as manufacturers rushing exports to beat US tariff deadlines and homebuyers completing purchases before stamp duty tax breaks expired. These activities artificially boosted early-year figures, creating a “bumper” effect that has since unwound, contributing to the April and May contractions. Economists like Paul Dales from Capital Economics suggest that this frontloading has skewed quarterly data, making the economy appear healthier than its underlying trajectory.

- Seasonal Adjustment Issues: 

The ONS has noted a pattern since 2022 where GDP tends to be stronger in the first quarter and weaker in the second half, raising questions about the accuracy of seasonal adjustments post-COVID. These adjustments may exaggerate quarterly growth, masking the true extent of the slowdown in monthly data. For instance, the 0.5% growth in the March-to-May period contrasts sharply with the monthly declines, suggesting that the quarterly figure is not fully reflective of current economic momentum.

- Volatility in Monthly Data: 

Monthly GDP figures are notoriously volatile and subject to revisions, but the consistent downturns in April and May indicate a genuine weakening. The ONS’s reliance on broader quarterly metrics can obscure these short-term trends, leading to an overestimation of economic health. Economists like Sanjay Raja from Deutsche Bank have revised Q2 2025 growth expectations downward to 0.1% from 0.25%, aligning more closely with the monthly data.

Implications and Outlook

The unexpected GDP contraction in May, coupled with the overstated quarterly figures, poses significant challenges for Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who has made economic growth her “number one mission.” The data underscores the fragility of the UK economy, with analysts like Hailey Low from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research warning that growth remains “fragile” amid global and domestic uncertainties.

The Bank of England is now widely expected to cut interest rates from 4.25% in August, as the weak GDP figures outweigh concerns about inflation, which has risen above 3%. However, with forecasts for 2025 GDP growth downgraded to 0.5–1.2% by institutions like Capital Economics and Goldman Sachs, the outlook remains subdued. Reeves faces pressure to balance her fiscal plans, with speculation of further tax rises in the autumn budget adding to business and consumer unease.

Conclusion

The 0.1% GDP contraction in May 2025, following a 0.3% drop in April, has exposed the vulnerability of the UK economy and the shortcomings of economic forecasting. Far from being “unexpected,” the downturn reflects the tangible impacts of Reeves’ tax-heavy budget, global trade disruptions from US tariffs, and sector-specific weaknesses in manufacturing and construction. The quarterly growth figures, while positive, are inflated by earlier frontloading and questionable ONS adjustments, masking the economy’s underlying struggles. As Reeves prepares for the autumn budget, the government must address these challenges head-on to restore confidence and deliver on its growth promises. For now, the UK economy remains on shaky ground, with businesses and consumers bracing for a turbulent second half of 2025.

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