UK Inflation Surges to 3.5%

 

The UK’s inflation rate surged to 3.5% in April 2025, according to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), marking the highest level since January 2024. This sharp rise from March’s 2.6% has exceeded expectations and sparked renewed concerns about the trajectory of the UK economy under Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ fiscal policies and the government’s broader economic strategy. Below, we unpack the actual figures against prior data and forecasts, identify the key drivers of this inflationary spike, and explore its implications for the economy and interest rates, with a critical lens on the role of net zero policies and Reeves’ budget.

Inflation Figures: Actual vs. Previous vs. Expectations

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate for April 2025 rose to 3.5%, up significantly from 2.6% in March, as reported by the ONS. Core CPI, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, climbed to 3.8%, while services inflation hit a striking 5.4%, underscoring persistent price pressures in key sectors. A poll of City economists had forecasted a more modest increase to 3.3%, with the Bank of England (BoE) anticipating 3.4%. The actual figure of 3.5% thus overshot both analyst and central bank expectations, signalling that inflationary pressures are intensifying beyond what was anticipated.

 

Looking ahead, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) projects inflation to peak at 3.8% in July 2025, driven by higher energy and food prices and sustained wage growth, before gradually declining to 2.1% by 2026. This trajectory suggests that the current spike is not a one-off but part of a broader inflationary trend that could challenge the BoE’s 2% target for some time.

Drivers of the Inflation Surge

Several factors have converged to push inflation higher, with policy decisions playing a central role:

 

1. Energy Costs: A significant driver of the April increase was a 6.4% rise in the energy price cap effective from April 1, 2025, which has directly increased household bills. This follows a £279 rise in the energy cap since July 2024, squeezing consumers and businesses alike. The government’s aggressive net zero policies, including heavy subsidies for renewable energy and carbon pricing mechanisms, have contributed to elevated energy costs. These policies, while aimed at reducing emissions, have placed upward pressure on prices by increasing reliance on less stable and often more expensive renewable energy sources, particularly as global fossil fuel prices remain volatile.
2. Minimum Wage Increase: The National Living Wage saw a substantial hike in April 2025, a move championed by the Labour government to support low-income workers. However, this increase has raised labour costs for businesses, particularly in sectors like retail and hospitality, which employ large numbers of minimum-wage workers. These costs are often passed on to consumers, contributing to the 5.4% services inflation rate and fuelling broader price pressures.
3. National Insurance (NI) Contributions: Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ October 2024 budget introduced significant increases in employer National Insurance contributions, a policy that has been widely criticised for its stagflationary impact. The NI hike has raised operational costs for businesses, prompting many to increase prices to maintain margins. This tax increase, combined with the minimum wage rise, has created a double burden for employers, amplifying inflationary pressures across the economy.
4. Other Factors: Additional price hikes in water, broadband, and council taxes, which took effect in April, have further strained household budgets, contributing to the overall inflation surge. Persistent wage growth, driven by a tight labour market, has also kept services inflation elevated, as firms compete for workers in a high-cost environment.

Economic Implications

The jump in inflation to 3.5% has significant implications for the UK economy, which is already grappling with sluggish growth and fiscal challenges. The OBR recently downgraded its 2025 growth forecast to 1%, reflecting concerns about higher interest rates, energy price expectations, and declining consumer and business confidence. The combination of rising inflation and modest growth points to a risk of stagflation—a scenario where stagnant economic output coexists with persistent price increases.

 

For consumers, the inflation surge translates to a higher cost of living, with household bills—particularly energy—eating into disposable incomes. This could dampen consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth, and exacerbate financial pressures for lower- and middle-income households. Businesses, meanwhile, face squeezed margins due to higher labour and energy costs, which could lead to reduced investment and hiring, further slowing economic activity.

Impact on Interest Rates

The inflation spike poses a significant challenge for the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). With inflation now well above the 2% target and services inflation at 5.4%, the BoE’s credibility is under scrutiny. Posts on X reflect growing scepticism about the central bank’s ability to manage inflation without tightening policy further. The MPC had previously signalled a cautious approach to rate cuts, with the base rate steady at 4.75% as of May 2025. However, the higher-than-expected inflation figures may force the BoE to reconsider its stance.

 

Economists now expect the BoE to delay any rate cuts until at least late 2025, with some even suggesting the possibility of a rate hike if inflation continues to climb toward the OBR’s projected 3.8% peak in July. Higher interest rates would increase borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, potentially stifling investment and housing market activity, but they may be necessary to curb runaway inflation. The BoE’s February 2025 projections, which extend through September, will be critical in shaping expectations for monetary policy.

The Role of Net Zero Policies and Reeves’ Budget

Critics, including voices on X, have pointed to the government’s net zero agenda and Chancellor Reeves’ October 2024 budget as key culprits in the inflation surge. The push for net zero, while environmentally ambitious, has driven up energy costs through subsidies for renewables and carbon taxes, which disproportionately burden households and businesses. These policies have failed to deliver affordable energy, leaving the UK vulnerable to global energy price shocks and domestic supply constraints.

 

Reeves’ budget, meanwhile, has been widely panned for its stagflationary effects. The increase in employer NI contributions and the minimum wage hike, while framed as progressive measures, have raised business costs at a time when firms are already grappling with high energy prices and post-Brexit trade frictions. Posts on X, such as those from

@DilipShah_

and @CityAM highlight the tax hikes and wage increases as direct contributors to the 3.5% inflation rate, accusing Labour of mismanaging the economy. The budget’s failure to provide meaningful relief for businesses or address energy cost drivers has eroded confidence, as evidenced by falling sentiment indicators cited by the OBR.

Conclusion

The UK’s inflation rate of 3.5% in April 2025, up from 2.6% in March and above expectations of 3.3%–3.4%, signals a troubling escalation of price pressures. Driven by rising energy costs, minimum wage increases, and higher National Insurance contributions, this surge reflects the unintended consequences of Labour’s fiscal and environmental policies. The economy faces the dual threat of slowing growth and persistent inflation, raising the spectre of stagflation. For the Bank of England, the path forward is fraught, with pressure mounting to maintain or even raise interest rates to tame inflation, at the risk of further choking growth.

 

Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ budget and the government’s net zero policies bear significant responsibility for this economic malaise. The NI hike and wage increases have burdened businesses, while the relentless focus on net zero has inflated energy costs without delivering affordable alternatives. As households and firms brace for higher costs and the BoE grapples with its next moves, the UK economy stands at a critical juncture, with Labour’s policy missteps casting a long shadow over its prospects.

UK GDP Growth: A Deceptive Victory Lap for Rachel Reeves

 

On May 15, 2025, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the UK economy grew by a surprisingly robust 0.7% in the first quarter of the year, surpassing City economists’ predictions of a 0.6% rise. This figure, the strongest in a year, has been heralded by Chancellor Rachel Reeves as evidence that the Labour government’s economic plan is working, with claims that the UK is outpacing major economies like the US, Canada, France, Italy, and Germany. However, while the headline number may look impressive, Reeves’ attempt to claim credit for this growth is not only premature but arguably disingenuous, given the underlying factors driving the figures—factors that have little to do with her policies and much to do with pre-emptive economic activity before her tax rises and Donald Trump’s tariffs took effect.

A Closer Look at the Numbers

The 0.7% GDP growth in Q1 2025, driven largely by a buoyant services sector, paints a picture of an economy defying expectations. Export volumes surged by 3.5%, reversing three consecutive quarters of decline, and international trade added 0.4 percentage points to growth. Consumer spending and business confidence also appeared resilient, despite earlier warnings from business leaders about the impact of Labour’s fiscal policies. On the surface, this suggests a robust economic rebound, and Reeves has been quick to seize the narrative, proclaiming that “the government’s plan is working.”

 

However, the reality is far less flattering. The growth figures reflect economic activity from January to March 2025, a period before the full impact of Labour’s £40 billion tax rises—primarily a £25 billion increase in employer National Insurance contributions (NICs)—began to bite in April. These tax hikes, announced in the October 2024 budget, were widely criticised by business groups like the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), which warned of a “steep” decline in activity in Q1 2025 due to increased costs for employers. The ONS data, therefore, captures a snapshot of an economy operating under the pre-tax-rise status quo, not one shaped by Reeves’ fiscal strategy.

The Trump Tariff Effect

Another critical factor inflating the GDP figures is the pre-emptive expenditure driven by anticipation of Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, which began to take effect in early April 2025. Economists, including Paul Dales of Capital Economics, have noted that much of the growth can be attributed to businesses “pulling forward activity” to get ahead of these trade barriers. The US, a major trading partner for the UK, imposed tariffs as high as 25% on non-USMCA compliant goods from Canada and Mexico, with a baseline 10% tariff on other countries, including the UK, and higher reciprocal tariffs for some nations. UK businesses, anticipating disruptions, ramped up exports and stockpiled goods, contributing to the 3.5% surge in export volumes.

 

This “tariff frontrunning” mirrors patterns seen in the US, where companies built up inventories to beat higher import costs, temporarily boosting economic activity. However, this is a one-off effect, not a sustainable driver of growth. As Dales warned, the increase is “completely at odds” with the plunge in business confidence triggered by both the NIC hikes and tariff concerns, suggesting that the economy may weaken in the coming months as these headwinds materialise. Reeves’ failure to acknowledge this context in her celebratory rhetoric is a glaring omission.

Why Reeves’ Claims Are Misleading

Reeves’ attempt to frame the GDP figures as a vindication of Labour’s economic stewardship is problematic for several reasons. First, the growth occurred before her signature tax policies took effect, meaning they cannot be credited for the uptick. The £25 billion NIC increase, which began in April 2025, is already showing signs of straining businesses, with reports of reduced hiring and downward pressure on wage growth. Unemployment has jumped, and private sector firms are forecasting cuts in output and price hikes in response to higher costs. These are the early consequences of Reeves’ policies, not the drivers of the Q1 growth she is touting.

 

Second, the tariff-driven export surge is a temporary phenomenon, not a structural improvement in the UK economy. The global trade environment is deteriorating, with Trump’s tariffs projected to reduce US GDP by 0.6% to 8% in the long run and disrupt global supply chains. The UK, heavily reliant on exports to the US, faces a “double-edged sword” of rising domestic costs from tax rises and growing uncertainty over international trade. Reeves’ claim that the UK is outperforming major economies ignores the fact that the US economy contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2025, largely due to tariff-related import surges, a dynamic that artificially boosted UK exports in the same period.

 

Finally, the broader economic context undermines Reeves’ optimistic narrative. Real GDP per head fell by 0.2% in Q3 2024 and was 0.2% lower than a year earlier, signalling stagnant living standards. Food banks are at record highs, real wages remain under pressure, and public services are struggling amid rising national debt. Posts on X reflect public scepticism, with users accusing Reeves of “polishing a turd” and pointing to the “upside skew” in the data due to front-running of tax hikes and tariffs.

The Road Ahead: A Sobering Outlook

Economists are near-unanimous in predicting that the Q1 2025 growth will mark a high point for the year. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts UK growth of 1.4% for 2025, close to the Office for Budget Responsibility’s 1% estimate, but this assumes no further escalation in global trade tensions. The CBI’s warning of a “steep” decline in activity, coupled with the Resolution Foundation’s assessment that higher tariffs and economic uncertainty will sap momentum, suggests a challenging road ahead.

 

Reeves’ insistence on claiming credit for growth driven by pre-policy conditions and temporary trade dynamics is not just misleading—it risks eroding public trust. Rather than celebrating a fleeting uptick, the Chancellor should be upfront about the looming challenges: rising unemployment, strained businesses, and a global trade war that could derail the UK’s fragile recovery. Her focus on “fixing the foundations” and “sustainable long-term growth” rings hollow when the immediate outlook is so precarious.

Conclusion

The 0.7% GDP growth in Q1 2025 is a welcome surprise, but it is not a testament to Rachel Reeves’ economic leadership. The figures reflect activity before her tax rises took effect and are inflated by businesses scrambling to outpace Trump’s tariffs. By claiming credit, Reeves is not only misrepresenting the drivers of this growth but also glossing over the storm clouds gathering on the economic horizon. The UK public deserves candour, not spin, about the challenges ahead. As the effects of higher taxes and global trade disruptions begin to bite, Reeves may find that today’s victory lap is a fleeting moment in an increasingly turbulent economic saga.

Cyberattack on Marks & Spencer: Customer Risks and the Broader Wave of Retail Hacks

In April 2025, Marks & Spencer (M&S), one of Britain’s most iconic high-street retailers, fell victim to a devastating cyberattack that disrupted its operations and compromised customer data. The incident, linked to the notorious hacking group Scattered Spider and the DragonForce ransomware, has not only cost M&S millions but also raised serious concerns about customer safety and the vulnerability of UK retailers to cybercrime. This attack is part of a broader wave of cyberattacks targeting major retailers like the Co-op and Harrods, signalling an alarming trend in the retail sector. This article explores the M&S hack, its risks to customers, and the implications of these ongoing cyber threats.

The M&S Cyberattack: What Happened?

The cyberattack on M&S began over the Easter weekend in April 2025, when customers reported issues with contactless payments and click-and-collect services. On April 25, M&S confirmed it was dealing with a “cyber incident” and suspended all online orders, a critical revenue stream accounting for roughly one-third of its clothing and home sales. The attack, believed to be a ransomware assault, encrypted M&S’s servers, halting online operations and disrupting in-store services. More than three weeks later, online ordering remains paused, and some in-store services, such as gift card acceptance, are still affected.

 

The hacking group Scattered Spider, also known as Octo Tempest, is suspected of orchestrating the attack using DragonForce ransomware. This group, comprising young, English-speaking hackers, employs sophisticated social engineering tactics, including phishing, SIM swapping, and impersonating IT help desk staff to gain access to systems. In the case of M&S, hackers reportedly tricked IT workers into resetting employee passwords, allowing them to breach the network. The attack has wiped over £700 million ($930 million) off M&S’s market value, with daily revenue losses estimated at £3.8 million ($5.05 million) due to the online shutdown.

 

On May 13, 2025, M&S confirmed that customer data, likely including names and addresses but not payment details or passwords, had been compromised. While the retailer stated there is no evidence the data has been shared, the breach poses significant risks to customers, as outlined below.

Risks to M&S Customers

The compromise of customer data, even without payment details, exposes M&S shoppers to several risks:

1. Phishing and Social Engineering Attacks: Hackers with access to names and addresses can craft highly targeted phishing emails or text messages, posing as M&S or other trusted entities to trick customers into revealing sensitive information, such as login credentials or financial details. These attacks exploit trust in the brand and can lead to identity theft or financial fraud.
2. Identity Theft: Personal information like names and addresses can be combined with other data available on the dark web to build comprehensive profiles for identity theft. Criminals may use this information to open fraudulent accounts, apply for credit, or commit other forms of fraud in victims’ names.
3. Reputational Damage and Loss of Trust: The prolonged disruption and data breach risk eroding customer confidence in M&S. As consumer expert Kate Hardcastle noted, “In today’s hyper-connected world, silence can be unsettling, particularly when trust and transparency are the most valuable commodities a brand can offer.” Customers may hesitate to shop with M&S, fearing further breaches.
4. Potential for Future Exploitation: Even if the stolen data hasn’t been shared yet, hackers may hold it for future ransom demands or sell it on the dark web. The DragonForce group has claimed to have stolen millions of customers’ data and is pressuring M&S to pay a ransom, potentially in the millions of pounds, to prevent its release.

M&S has advised customers to monitor their accounts and be vigilant for suspicious activity, but the lack of a clear timeline for full recovery and limited communication has fuelled concerns about transparency. The National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) recommends that customers use strong, unique passwords across platforms and check for updates from M&S regarding the breach.

Other Ongoing Cyberattacks: Co-op and Harrods

The M&S attack is not an isolated incident but part of a broader wave of cyberattacks targeting UK retailers. In the same week, the Co-op and Harrods reported similar incidents, raising fears of a coordinated campaign or vulnerabilities in shared systems like SAP, widely used in the retail sector.

The Co-op Hack

The Co-op, a major UK supermarket chain, disclosed on April 30, 2025, that it had shut down parts of its IT systems to fend off an attempted hack. The attack, also linked to DragonForce, compromised a significant amount of customer and employee data, including names, contact details, and dates of birth. Unlike M&S, the Co-op’s stores and funeral homes continued trading as usual, but back-office and call centre services were disrupted. To prevent further breaches, Co-op staff were ordered to keep cameras on during remote meetings and verify all attendees, indicating concerns about hackers infiltrating virtual calls.

 

The Co-op hack highlights similar risks to customers, particularly phishing and identity theft, as the stolen data could be used to target members. The NCSC has urged firms to review IT help desk password reset processes, as hackers exploited this vulnerability by impersonating employees to gain access.

Harrods Cyberattack

On May 1, 2025, luxury department store Harrods confirmed it was targeted by a cyberattack, becoming the third major UK retailer hit within a week. The store restricted internet access across its sites, including its Knightsbridge flagship, as a precaution after detecting attempts to gain unauthorised access. Harrods’ IT security team acted swiftly, and the retailer reported no evidence of customer data being compromised. All stores and the Harrods website remained operational, but the incident underscores the growing threat to retailers handling vast amounts of customer data.

 

Harrods has not disclosed whether the attack was linked to DragonForce or Scattered Spider, but cybersecurity experts suggest the timing and nature of the attacks on M&S, Co-op, and Harrods may indicate a shared vulnerability, such as a compromised supplier or technology. Toby Lewis of Darktrace noted that the incidents could be coincidental, but a common entry point or heightened vigilance following the M&S attack may have prompted other retailers to detect breaches.

Broader Implications and Industry Response

The cyberattacks on M&S, Co-op, and Harrods expose systemic vulnerabilities in the retail sector, which processes over 48 billion payments annually and relies heavily on digital infrastructure. Cybersecurity experts warn that retailers are prime targets due to the volume of identity and payment data they hold and their expanding attack surfaces through e-commerce and mobile platforms. Xavier Sheikrojan of Signifyd emphasised, “Retailers are prime targets because of the volume of identity and payment data they hold,” while Anton Yunussov of Forvis Mazars called for cybersecurity to be treated as a “strategic business priority” rather than just an IT issue.

 

The UK government and NCSC have responded with urgency. Cabinet Office Minister Pat McFadden, speaking at the CyberUK conference, described the attacks as a “wake-up call” for companies to prioritise cybersecurity. The NCSC is working with affected retailers and has issued guidance on securing IT help desk processes and monitoring for “risky logins” to prevent social engineering attacks. The Metropolitan Police’s Cyber Crime Unit and the National Crime Agency are investigating the M&S attack, with six arrests of suspected Scattered Spider members in the UK and US over the past year.

 

Retailers are now on high alert, with many reviewing their cybersecurity defences. However, experts like Jordan Jewell of VTEX warn that “no company is immune” as complexity increases with more systems, vendors, and data. The food and beverage industry, in particular, has been criticised for weak defences, with an M&S employee telling Sky News that the retailer lacked a business continuity plan for such an attack.

What Can Customers Do?

Customers of M&S, Co-op, and Harrods can take proactive steps to protect themselves:

• Monitor Accounts: Regularly check bank statements and accounts for unauthorised activity.
• Use Strong Passwords: Create unique, complex passwords for each platform and avoid reusing them.
• Enable Two-Factor Authentication: Add an extra layer of security to online accounts.
• Be Wary of Phishing: Avoid clicking links or sharing personal information in unsolicited emails or texts claiming to be from these retailers.
• Stay Informed: Check for updates from M&S, Co-op, or Harrods regarding the breaches and follow NCSC advice.

Looking Ahead

The cyberattacks on M&S, Co-op, and Harrods underscore the growing sophistication and audacity of cybercriminals, with groups like Scattered Spider and DragonForce exploiting human and technical vulnerabilities. For M&S, the financial toll—estimated at £30 million in initial profit losses and £15 million weekly—pales in comparison to the potential long-term loss of customer trust. While analysts like Adam Cochrane of Deutsche Bank believe M&S will recover due to strong consumer loyalty, the retailer must act swiftly to restore services and rebuild confidence.

 

The broader retail sector faces a critical juncture. As Helen Dickinson of the British Retail Consortium noted, cyberattacks are becoming “increasingly sophisticated,” requiring retailers to invest heavily in defences. The government, NCSC, and industry must collaborate to strengthen cybersecurity, address skill shortages (only 4% of UK firms are fully prepared for complex threats, per Cisco), and treat digital infrastructure as critical. Until then, customers and retailers alike remain vulnerable to the next wave of attacks, which DragonForce has ominously warned is “just the start.”

Sir Ian Diamond Resigns as Head of ONS

 

Sir Ian Diamond, the UK’s National Statistician and Chief Executive of the Office for National Statistics (ONS), has stepped down from his role citing health reasons, marking the end of a tumultuous tenure. Diamond, who has led the ONS since October 2019, was reappointed for a second term in April 2023, set to run until March 2028. His resignation comes as the ONS faces growing scrutiny over its data quality and relevance, with critics branding the organisation as increasingly ineffective.

 

During his leadership, Diamond oversaw significant projects, including the 2021 Census in England and Wales, which achieved a 97% response rate, and the rapid establishment of the COVID-19 Infection Survey. However, the ONS has been criticised for inconsistent data, particularly on health-related economic inactivity, which Diamond himself defended in February 2025 as aligning with NHS and Department for Work and Pensions figures. The agency reported a rise in economic inactivity due to ill health, reaching 2.8 million by late 2024, up from 2.1 million in 2019. Yet, detractors argue the ONS has struggled to adapt to modern data demands, with some calling its outputs unreliable or outdated.

 

Diamond’s departure follows a controversial exit from his previous role as Principal of the University of Aberdeen in 2018, where he faced backlash over a £119,000 payoff, raising questions about his suitability for the ONS role. Critics, including trade union leaders, have long argued that his appointment was marred by a lack of transparency.

 

The ONS, tasked with providing critical data to inform government policy and public understanding, now faces an uncertain future. Diamond’s resignation highlights deeper challenges within the organisation, with calls growing for a leadership overhaul and a rethink of its approach to data collection and analysis. As the UK grapples with economic and social shifts, the next National Statistician will inherit a pivotal yet troubled institution.