Friday, July 31, 2015

Tsipras Backs Varoufakis

Fearful of what might happen if Yanis Varoufakis is charged with treason, Tsipras has given him some protective cover.

The questions are:

- Will this be enough, and

- What happens of Tsipras is also charged with treason?

Thursday, July 30, 2015

Greek Bond Market To Collapse

Greece Reverts To Barter Economy

It seems that despite the "benign" intentions of the Quadriga, Greece is slipping back into a barter economy.

This will not end well!

Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Varoufakis The Traitor?

A week is a long time in politics and, having outed himself as planning a surreptitious hack of the Greek tax system in order to create a parallel currency, Yanis Varoufakis now faces the very real prospect of being tried for treason.

It is not without irony that the Quadriga (nee Troika), having overridden the Greek referendum result and turned Greece into a vassal state, is now looking around for "traitors" in order to publicly punish them:

"pour les encouragement des les autres".

Step forward Yanis Varoufakis, whose head will soon adorn the eagle headed spear of the Quadriga!

Oh, and for the record, the European commission has denounced as “false and unfounded” claims by Greece’s Varoufakis that the Quadriga had exclusive control over Greece’s tax system.

All clear then?!

Tuesday, July 28, 2015

Troika Morphs Into Quadriga

It seems that the Troika s simply not larger enough to deal with Greece's third bailout negotiations. As such an extra member has been added, namely the ESM.

Thus the Troika has been officially renamed the Quadriga.

What is a Quadriga?

It is a chariot of the gods drawn by four horses.

As Zerohedge points out, the finest example of a Quadriga sits astride the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin.

There's irony for you!

Lamont Assesses Varoufakis's Plan

Lamont was the Chancellor who took Britain out of the ERM in 1991 (or rather "managed" it crashing out of the ERM).

Monday, July 27, 2015

China Is Crashing

Troika Arrives - Confusion Reigns Supreme In Athens

As the Troika starts to arrive in Athens (even though its safe house has yet to be arranged), there is some confusion over what happens next.

The Greeks say no further prior actions will be taken prior to an ESM loan:

Yet the Troika, according to ekathimerini, expect the Greek government to draft another bill with prior actions so it can be passed through Parliament in the next two or three weeks.

As ever with this ongoing car crash confusion reigns supreme!

Sunday, July 26, 2015

Greek Capital Controls To Continue For Months

Reuters reports, not unsurprisingly, that Greek capital controls are going to remain in place for months until Greece is bailed out again.

The ongoing capital controls are strangling the economy and thus increasing the amount that Greece will need as a bailout. The banks alone will require Euro25BN at the very least to be recapitalised.

I wonder if anyone seriously believes that a third bailout, given the amount and restructuring required, will actually ever come to fruition?

Saturday, July 25, 2015

The Return of The Troika

The Troika are set to return to Athens.

However, their return is currently being delayed (and thus the start of bailout negotiations are also delayed) because of security fears. A safe house needs to be found for the group of technocrats, lest the local population try to do them some harm.

Such is the state of affairs within the eurozone!

Friday, July 24, 2015

Third Greek Bailout Causing Fractures

As the third bailout negotiations are set to begin in Athens, there are rumours of a SYRIZA split. Unsurprisingly, the Germans are none to happy about things either.

Additionally, as if things were not bad enough, people are not best pleased about providing Greece with a second bridging loan (as bailout negotiations are unlikely to be concluded - positively or negatively - before December).

For why?

A complete and utter lack of trust!

As per MNI, a top Commission source said the idea of more bridge financing for Greece was "not finding fertile ground among many Eurogroup members."

That's putting it mildly!

Thursday, July 23, 2015

Greece Needs Another Bridging Loan

Despite the delusional belief held by some that Greece is "fixed", the reality is that it is far from "fixed".

Negotiations about the next bailout (estimated to be around Euro85BN) are expected drag on until December. In the meantime Greece needs more money to fund its ongoing IMF payments, as last week's bridging loan of Euro7BN has already been swallowed up on IMF/ECB payments.

Thus the European Financial Stability Mechanism (EFSM) will probably be tapped again next month, and creditors' money will  be used to pay the self same creditors.

Circular funding at its best and most ludicrous!

Wednesday, July 22, 2015

Tsipras Wanted To Bring Back The Drachma

It seems that Tsipras really did want to Grexit and bring back the Drachma.

Greek media report that Tsipras asked Putin for Euro10BN to underwrite the currency. However, Putin said no.

However the fact that, had Tsipras still opted for Grexit, he would have got a Euro50BN handout from Schaeuble raises serious questions as to why he bottled it and opted for a deal that will destroy Greece.

Toshiba's False Profits

It seems that 30% of Toshiba's "profits" in the past 7 years were fabricated!

An independent panel appointed by Toshiba said that the firm had overstated its operating profit by a total of £780M.

Toshiba's chief executive and president Hisao Tanaka has resigned. Eight senior executives have now resigned after the independent report found that senior management were involved in a scheme to inflate profits over several years.

Tuesday, July 21, 2015

The Bank of Greece Website Crashes

It is now back up, but very slow to access.

Monday, July 20, 2015

Greece Makes Circular Payment

The Euro50BN Greek Fuck Off Fund

On July 8th I wrote the following:
"As I have noted several times before on this site, a fund (aka "fuck off money") has been set aside to be given to Greece as and when it exits, in order for Germany et al to wash their hands (with a "clean" conscience) of any further problems within Greece."
The value of the fund has now been disclosed, it was Euro50BN.

Greece will regret rejecting Schaeuble's offer.

Greek Banks Reopen

Greek banks have reopened today, with restricted services and capital controls still firmly in place.

The withdrawal limit of €60 per account per day has been replaced with a weekly limit of €420. 
This change  is designed to encourage people to withdraw their maximum weekly allowance today, thus giving the semblance of "normality" during the rest of the week (ie large queues today, and very few for the rest of the week).

Sunday, July 19, 2015

Greek VAT Rise

Friday, July 17, 2015

Not All Greek Banks Will Open

Thursday, July 16, 2015

Greece Dies A Little Bit More Everyday

Tsipras "won" the vote, at the cost of his party's support.

That was the easy bit!

Now all he has to do is stay in office, secure some funding in the short term then acquire Euro85BN in the coming months.

As I write this the Eurogroup conference call is underway, that will determine if Greece gets any short term funding.

Wednesday, July 15, 2015

Schaeuble Is Right

Despite the "#thisisacoup" hyperbole whipped up by the those with a rose tinted glasses view of the eurozone and Greek "democracy", and the US attempt to use the IMF as a bulldozer to force through its own geopolitical agenda, Schaeuble's Grexit plan was the best option on the table for Greece.

It is a pity that the Greeks choose to live in fantasy land wrt the eurozone!

Tuesday, July 14, 2015

Varoufakis Interview - Grexit Planned

As per The New Stasman Varoufakis was prepared to do three things:

- issue euro-denominated IOUs;
- apply a “haircut” to the bonds Greek issued to the ECB in 2012, reducing Greece’s debt;
- and seize control of the Bank of Greece from the ECB.

All nixed, thus he resigned.

However, he is doubtless busy writing his book!

Bank of England Rubbishes Greek Deal

UK Won't Fund Greece Deal

One way or another the UK will end up footing some part of the bill!

Monday, July 13, 2015

Greece Needs Approximately Euro90BN

'Nuff said!

Greek Deal Online

Here is a link to the Greek "deal" in all its "glory".

By 15 July
• the streamlining of the VAT system and the broadening of the tax base to increase revenue;
• upfront measures to improve long-term sustainability of the pension system as part of a comprehensive pension reform programme;
• the safeguarding of the full legal independence of ELSTAT;
• full implementation of the relevant provisions of the Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance in the Economic and Monetary Union, in particular by making the Fiscal Council operational before finalizing the MoU and introducing quasi-automatic spending cuts in case of deviations from ambitious primary surplus targets after seeking advice from the Fiscal Council and subject to prior approval of the Institutions;

Not a chance in hell!

Greek Bailout Deal Agreed????

Allegedly, if reports and headlines are to be believed (and the algos will certainly believe them), a bailout deal has been agreed.

As to whether the Greeks have agreed this, or indeed will action whatever it is, remains to be seen!

It seems unlikely, as per the FT Tsipras:
"agreed to sequestrate €50bn of Greek assets - for privatisation, bank recapitalisation and debt repayment - and put them into a special Athens-based fund. 

However, Greek officials warned that such violations of Greek sovereignty and democracy would be impossible to pass through a restive Greek parliament.

Mr Tsipras must implement the list of economic pledges by Wednesday as a pre-condition for a possible start to formal negotiations later this week on a financing package to stave off the bankruptcy of the fast-deteriorating economy."
The wheels will fall off this wagon before the ink is dry on the official Euro Summit statement!

Sunday, July 12, 2015

Greece on Euro Knife Edge

One things is for sure, the catering companies of Brussels have done very well out of the Greek crisis!

Friday, July 10, 2015

Greece Back To The Future

Greece managed to submit its proposal before yesterday's deadline.

The irony being that it is more or less the same as the one put forward by the Troika in June, which was rejected by Tsipras and the Greek people.

As Robert Peston says, it's more or less total "capitulation":

Thursday, July 09, 2015

Greece's D Day

Today really is the final deadline (even the eurozone won't flex this one again) for Greece to submit a detailed proposal on the back of yesterday's vague one.

The French are so worried about Greece screwing this up again, that they have sent a team of experts to Athens to go through and edit the proposal line by line before it is officially submitted.

Meanwhile the banks and stock exchange remain closed. Didn't Yanis promise that they would reopen on Tuesday?

ECB Governing Council member Ardo Hansson said in an interview in Estonian newspaper Postimees:
A few months ago I wouldn’t have believed that Greece would leave the euro area. 

Now several months have passed without moving toward a solution. By now Greece’s situation is much worse than it was even 10 days ago. 

The situation isn’t hopeless but it is quickly and sharply deteriorating.” 
This will not end well!

Wednesday, July 08, 2015

Tsipras Speaks #EPlenary

Tsipras is speaking at the European Parliament #EPlenary.

Make of it what you will.

The reality is that no proposal has been submitted and, if one springs forth that includes debt restructuring, it is unlikely to be accepted (as Tsipras knows full well!).

The Eurozone's Fuck Off Greece Fund

Despite Euclid meeting his fellow eurozone financial ministers in Brussels yesterday, he brought no proposals with him.

Unsurprisingly, even the eurozone is now exasperated by these games. As such Tusk and Juncker have given Greece a "final deadline" (how many times has Europe given Greece "deadlines" only to move them back?) to present a credible plan by Thursday, that will be decided upon by a full EU summit on Sunday.

Why are the EU leaders outside the eurozone coming?

Plan B now has been officially mentioned.

Juncker has said that if the proposal by Greece is unacceptable, Greece will be exiting the eurozone. As such the EU leaders will discuss what humanitarian aid will be given to Greece.

As I have noted several times before on this site, a fund (aka "fuck off money") has been set aside to be given to Greece as and when it exits, in order for Germany et al to wash their hands (with a "clean" conscience) of any further problems within Greece.

Syriza has played the game in order to maximise the "fuck off" fund. Once it has left the eurozone Syriza will turn Greece into a Marxist state funded by the eurozone's fuck off fund.

Tuesday, July 07, 2015

Euclid In A Nutshell

Expect no change in Syriza's policy.

Grexit Coming

Juncker has said that the solution to the Greek crisis won't come Tuesday.

Quite so!

However, what he has failed to mention is the date that he expects the "solution" to materialise.

Whilst the naive idiots who think that Syriza's rehash of a proposal that was rejected may start the ball rolling towards a solution within the eurozone, the reality is that Syriza is preparing for Grexit and has been doing so ever since it took office.

Coming soon:

- Bank nationalisations
- Parallel currency
- Full blown Grexit

I wonder if the people who voted OXI realised that this is what they voted for?

Monday, July 06, 2015

Varoufakis Resigns

Hot on the heels of an Oxi vote of around 61% Varoufakis, the man who said he would resign if the vote was Nai, has resigned as Finance Minister.

He cites the fact that he wants to give Tsipras every chance to maximise his negotiating strength with the Troika.

Very noble, given that he called the Troika "terrorists". However, let us not also forget that he promised a deal would be done within 24 hours of the result.

How's that looking then?

Oh, irrespective of him no longer being officially Finance Minister of Greece, he will doubtless still be advising Tsipras in the background and most certainly remains an MP.

Sunday, July 05, 2015

The Elephant in The Parthenon

As the embattled people of Greece go to the polls today, there is one small point that everyone is ignoring.

What is that?

The package on which they are voting is no longer on the table; ie the vote is irrelevant.

Whatever the outcome of this vote, the powers that be will use the result for their own agenda and the Greek people will continue to suffer.

Saturday, July 04, 2015

Varoufakis Speaks

Friday, July 03, 2015

Mafia Style Democracy In Action

Greece Is Fucked

The IMF has said that Greece needs another Euro50BN bailout, and that the debt is unsustainable and will need to be restructured.

Music or not, Greek banks are down to their last Euro500M. The emergency is now, not in the months it will take to negotiate/approve (if at all) a Euro50BN bailout and debt restructure!

Thursday, July 02, 2015

Varoufakis To Resign If Yes Vote

I bet 10 Drachmas he doesn't!

Pressure on Greece Increases

Eurozone finance ministers have ruled out any further talks on a fresh bailout for Greece until after the referendum.

Meanwhile the IMF put the other boot in, as Christine Lagarde said that Greece must sign up to economic reforms before it gets debt relief.

However, Varoufakis has stated that the banks will open next Tuesday. Quite how they will open remains a mystery. For good measure he has also had a go at the ECB.

Wednesday, July 01, 2015

Greece Crisis Live

Schaeuble Says Nein!

Schaeuble says there is no basis to have serious negotiations with Greece at moment.

Latest Greece Rumour - Tsipras Folds

Greece Defaults To The IMF

Greece has become the first developed country to default to the IMF.

Lagarde will act immediately, and will not delay reporting the default officially.