Wednesday, December 20, 2023

Inflation Falls To 3.9%

Headline inflation, as measured by the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), fell to 3.9% in the 12 months to November, down from 4.6% in October. This marks the second consecutive month of decline, and it was better that expectations of 4.3%; bringing a sigh of relief to many households, businesses, and policymakers.

The fall is largely attributed to the easing of energy price pressures. Global oil prices have moderated, and the government's energy price guarantee scheme is helping to shield consumers from the worst of the energy crisis.

Reasons for Cautious Optimism:

  • Downward trend: This is the second consecutive month of declining inflation, suggesting a possible turning point.
  • Energy reprieve: Lower energy prices are playing a key role in the slowdown, offering financial breathing room for many.
  • Policy measures: The Bank of England's rate hikes and the government's energy support programs are contributing to the easing of price pressures.

Challenges Ahead:

  • Core inflation remains high: While headline inflation is falling, core inflation, which excludes volatile items like energy and food, remains stubbornly high at 5.1%, indicating broader price pressures persist.
  • External uncertainties: Global economic turmoil and the ongoing war in Ukraine continue to pose risks to price stability.
  • Household financial strain: Despite the downward trend, many households are still struggling with the affordability of essentials, with wage growth lagging behind inflation.

It goes without saying that the Bank of England will be slow to lower rates, as it has been consistently behind the curve.

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Thursday, December 14, 2023

MPC Leaves Rates Unchanged

As expected the MPC held rates at 5.25%. 

The MPC voted 6-3 to hold rates steady, with dissenters preferring to raise rates by 0.25% to 5.5% 

Inflation is expected to return to 2% by the end of 2025.

Rates are not expected to be reduced anytime soon.

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Thursday, November 23, 2023

Autumn Statement Summarised

The 2023 Autumn Statement, delivered by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt on November 22, 2023, outlined a series of measures aimed at tackling inflation, boosting economic growth, and supporting households and businesses. Here's a summary of the key points along with their potential pros and cons:

Key Points:

  1. Tax Cuts for Working People: The income tax threshold will be increased to £17,000, and the National Insurance rate will be cut for earnings below £50,250.

Pros:

  • Increased disposable income for individuals, potentially boosting consumer spending.
  • Reduced tax burden for low- and middle-income earners.

Cons:

  • Limited impact on high-income earners, who may not see a significant benefit.
  • Potential for increased government borrowing.
  1. Support for Businesses: Full expensing for capital spending by businesses will be made permanent, encouraging investment and growth.

Pros:

  • Increased investment in plant and machinery, potentially boosting productivity and innovation.
  • Enhanced competitiveness for UK businesses.

Cons:

  • Potential for increased government borrowing.
  • Limited impact on businesses facing other challenges, such as supply chain disruptions.
  1. Measures to Reduce Inflation: The government will continue to support the Bank of England's efforts to control inflation, including through measures to reduce public spending.

Pros:

  • Potential to bring inflation under control, protecting household budgets and business operations.
  • Maintaining fiscal discipline and reducing government borrowing.

Cons:

  • Potential impact on essential public services and infrastructure investments.
  • Short-term economic pain as interest rates may rise further.

National Insurance (NI) Cut:

  • The NI rate will be cut from 12% to 10% for earnings below £50,250, effective from April 2024.

Pros:

  • This cut will provide an average annual saving of £330 for workers earning £30,000 per year.
  • It will increase take-home pay for low- and middle-income earners.

Cons:

  • The cut will have a limited impact on high-income earners.
  • It may not be sufficient to offset the impact of rising inflation and other costs of living.

Full Expensing for Capital Spending:

  • Full expensing for capital spending by businesses will be made permanent, allowing businesses to deduct the full cost of qualifying plant and machinery from their taxable profits in the year of purchase.

Pros:

  • This measure will encourage businesses to invest in new equipment and technology, which could boost productivity and innovation.
  • It will make the UK more competitive.

Cons:

  • The measure is likely to be expensive for the government, as it will reduce tax revenue.
  • It may not be effective in stimulating investment in all sectors of the economy.

Freezing of Alcohol Duties:

  • Alcohol duties will be frozen for a year, providing a small tax cut for alcohol producers and consumers.

Pros:

  • The freeze will provide some relief to the alcohol industry, which has been struggling with higher costs and supply chain disruptions.
  • It may also lead to lower prices for consumers.

Cons:

  • The freeze will have a limited impact on overall government revenue.
  • It may be seen as a regressive measure, as it benefits higher-income earners who are more likely to consume alcohol.

Additional Measures:

  • The government will invest £4.5 billion in British manufacturing to increase investment in eight sectors across the UK.
  • The government will provide £2.4 billion in funding for research and development to support innovation and growth.
  • The government will invest £1.5 billion in skills training to help people get into work and develop the skills they need to succeed in the 21st-century economy.

These measures are part of a broader government strategy to boost economic growth, improve productivity, and level up the economy across the UK. The success of this strategy will depend on a number of factors, including the global economic outlook, the government's ability to implement its plans effectively, and the response of businesses and individuals.

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Wednesday, November 22, 2023

Sid's Back!


 

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Autumn Statement Live

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Tuesday, November 21, 2023

"Unexpected Fiscal Headroom" - Michael Brown Nails It!

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Monday, November 20, 2023

Altman To Join Microsoft

Sam Altman, the recently ousted CEO of OpenAI, is joining Microsoft along with Greg Brockman another ex OpenAI board member.

This means that OpenAI's "plan" to ensure the market of AI remains "open" has just imploded rather spectacularly.

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Wednesday, November 15, 2023

Inflation Falls To 4.6%


 

The rate of inflation has fallen to 4.6% (expected rate 4.8%).

Primarily as a result of falling energy prices, monetary tightening and lower global commodity prices.

Producer input prices fell by 2.6% in the year to October (down further from -2.1% in September), and producer output (factory gate) prices fell by 0.6% (down from +0.2% in September).

Whilst the Bank of England won't be rushing to cut rates, it is clear that it won't be raising them either! 

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Thursday, November 02, 2023

Bank of England Holds Rates at 5.25%

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Wednesday, October 18, 2023

Inflation Flatlines at 6.7%

Inflation stays unchanged at 6.7% in September. 

This is slightly above the expectations of 6.6%. However, it is still below where the Bank of England thought it would be at 6.9%.

Next month the figure will fall significantly because of the fall in the price cap, and tightening credit conditions.

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Friday, October 06, 2023

Metro Bank Hits The Skids


 

Metro Bank was once the darling of the British banking sector. It was founded in 2010 and quickly gained a reputation for its innovative approach to customer service. The bank offered seven-day-a-week opening hours, a free dog biscuit with every account opening, and even a dog walking service.

Metro Bank's shares soared in the early years, and the bank was valued at over £2 billion at its peak. However, things started to go wrong in 2019. The bank was found to have overstated its asset values by £1 billion, and it was forced to raise emergency capital.

Metro Bank's shares have been in freefall ever since. They are now down over 90% from their peak, and the bank is worth less than £200 million.

So what went wrong?

There are a number of factors that have contributed to Metro Bank's downfall. One is that the bank grew too quickly. It opened hundreds of new branches in a short period of time, and it was unable to keep up with the regulatory requirements.

Another factor is that Metro Bank made a number of bad loans. The bank lent heavily to commercial property developers, and many of these loans have gone sour.

Finally, Metro Bank has been hit by a number of scandals. In 2019, the bank was fined £10 million by the Financial Conduct Authority for overstating its asset values. And in 2023, the bank was fined £2 million for failing to properly report suspicious transactions.

Metro Bank's story is a cautionary tale for other banks and financial institutions. It shows that it is important to grow at a sustainable pace and to make sound lending decisions. It also shows that banks need to have strong compliance and risk management systems in place.

Metro is currently seeking to shore up its balance sheet by £600M. It is unlikely to raise this money.

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Monday, October 02, 2023

Michael Lewis "FTX Was Not A Ponzi Scheme"

TWAT!

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Thursday, September 21, 2023

Bank of England Holds Rates at 5.25%

 

The MPC voted 5-4 to hold rates at this level.

The question is how long will the rate remain at this level, before the Bank starts to reduce it?

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Wednesday, September 20, 2023

Inflation Falls To 6.7%

With the much better than expected inflation figures some people are expecting that the Bank of England will not raise rates tomorrow.

That would require intelligence and flexibility from Bailey and the dullards on the MPC!

via GIPHY


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Friday, September 15, 2023

Discord at The ECB

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Thursday, September 14, 2023

Apple's Watch Series 9 - Go Woke Go Broke!

 Translating the hype :

1 Powered by coal

2 30% more microplastics by weight for your intake

3 Shipped by sea in oil powered container ships

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Wednesday, September 13, 2023

July GDP Falls 0.5%


 

The ONS estimates of July's GDP shows a fall of 0.5%.

However, as with all ONS figures, this should be taken with a very large pinch of salt. As I have noted many times before, as evidenced by fact, ONS figures are notoriously unreliable and are rotuinely revised upwards.

As such, using their figures to make economic decisions is as reliable as reading the entrails of a goat.

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Wednesday, September 06, 2023

Go Woke Go Broke ETF Launched

Tuttle has launched an and Inverse Socially Conscious ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) that aims to short companies that follow the latest con "woke" investment policies.

Companies such as Disney and Budweiser will doubtless be amongst its targets.

In the short term this may well have some traction. However, as compliances begin to realise that woke financial policies are a good way to lose money, they will change tack and abandon them. As such, I doubt this ETF will have a long shelf life.

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Tuesday, September 05, 2023

Birmingham's Bust!

The equal pay claims will bankrupt a few other councils too!

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Friday, September 01, 2023

ONS Revises 2021 GDP Upwards by 2%

 As I have said many times, the fact that the ONS constantly has to revise its figures upwards means that its figures cannot be relied on for real time decision making and forward planning.

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Wednesday, August 30, 2023

Orsted Falls 20% - Go Green Go Broke!

Denmark's Orsted (ORSTED.CO), the world's largest offshore wind farm developer, said on Wednesday it may see U.S. impairments of 16 billion Danish crowns ($2.3 billion) due to supply chain problems, soaring interest rates and a lack of new tax credits.

Orsted's share price tumbled 20% to its lowest level in more than four years and is down almost 70% from its 2021 peak.

"The situation in U.S. offshore wind is severe," Chief Executive Mads Nipper told reporters on a conference call.

Orsted said the company's discussions with "senior federal stakeholders" on obtaining more U.S. tax credits for its offshore wind projects had not progressed as expected, which in turn could lead to impairments of another 6 billion crowns.

A company that relies on tax credits to survive is not viable, a country that squanders billions on tax credits for such companies will not survive.

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Wednesday, August 16, 2023

Inflation Falls To 6.8%

Inflation in the UK fell to 6.8% in the year to July, down from 7.9%.

Primarily due to falls in household energy prices. However, core inflation remained at 6.9% and services inflation rose by 7.4% (up on last month).

Interest rate rises have had little effect, as such the Bank of England will raise rates again. 

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Friday, August 11, 2023

GDP Hits 0.5% in June


 

The UK economy grew by 0.5% in June, according to figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This is the third consecutive month of growth, and the strongest since March 2023.

The ONS said that the main drivers of growth in June were the production and construction sectors. Production output grew by 1.8%, the largest monthly increase since March 2020. Construction output grew by 1.1%, the strongest monthly growth since January 2023.

The services sector also grew in June, but by a more modest 0.2%. This was the weakest monthly growth for the services sector since February 2023.

The ONS said that the increase in GDP in June was partly due to the additional bank holiday in May. However, it also said that there were signs of underlying strength in the economy.

For example, the ONS said that business investment grew by 0.9% in the three months to June, the strongest quarterly growth since March 2023. This suggests that businesses are becoming more confident about the future and are investing in their operations.

The ONS also said that the number of people in employment increased by 100,000 in the three months to June, the largest quarterly increase since March 2023. This suggests that the labor market is still strong, despite rising unemployment.

Overall, the figures for June suggest that the UK economy is on a solid footing. However, there are some risks to the outlook, such as rising inflation and the ongoing war in Ukraine.

What does this mean for the UK economy?

The increase in GDP in June is a positive sign for the UK economy. It suggests that the economy is recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic and is on a path to sustainable growth.

However, there are some risks to the outlook, such as rising inflation and the ongoing war in Ukraine. Inflation is currently at a 40-year high, and it is expected to continue to rise in the coming months. This could put a squeeze on household budgets and businesses' bottom lines.

The war in Ukraine is also a major risk to the UK economy. The war has caused energy prices to surge, and it has disrupted global supply chains. This could lead to slower growth in the UK economy in the coming quarters.

Despite these risks, the increase in GDP in June is a positive sign for the UK economy. It suggests that the economy is on a solid footing, and it is well-placed to withstand the challenges ahead.

 

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Thursday, August 10, 2023

Wilko Goes Into Administration

 


Wilko, the discount homewares retailer, has gone into administration, putting 12,000 jobs at risk. The company has been struggling financially for some time, and has been unable to find a buyer to save it from collapse.

Wilko was founded in 1930 and has over 400 stores across the UK. It is known for its wide range of products at affordable prices. However, the company has been hit hard by the rising cost of living and the decline of the high street.

In recent months, Wilko has been forced to close a number of stores and lay off staff. It has also struggled to pay its suppliers on time. This led to the company filing a notice of intention to appoint administrators on August 3.

The administrators, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), are now looking for a buyer for Wilko. However, it is unclear if they will be able to find one. If Wilko does go into liquidation, it will be a major blow to the UK high street.

In a statement, PwC said: "We are aware that this news will be concerning for Wilko's employees, customers and suppliers. We will be working closely with all stakeholders to assess the situation and agree a way forward."

The collapse of Wilko is the latest in a string of high street casualties. In recent years, a number of well-known brands, including Toys R Us, Maplin and Debenhams, have gone into administration.

The high street is facing a number of challenges, including the rise of online shopping and the decline of consumer spending. These challenges have made it difficult for many retailers to survive.

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Wednesday, August 09, 2023

Monetary Policy Adviser to Megan Greene (External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).)


 

"This vacancy is a permanent position as Adviser to Megan Greene, External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). You will work at the heart of monetary policy, supporting on policy decisions and public communications. The precise balance of responsibilities is very flexible and can be adapted to suit the successful candidate’s preferences and ability..."

Apply here.

Unfortunately the Bank is not yet looking to replace the hapless and hopeless Bailey! 

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Tuesday, August 08, 2023

Bank of England Clueless!

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Thursday, August 03, 2023

Bank of England Raises Rates To 5.25%

The Bank of England raised interest rates today by a quarter of a point to 5.25%, the highest level since 2008. The move was widely expected, as the Bank is under pressure to bring inflation under control.

Inflation in the UK is currently at a 40-year high of 7.9%. The Bank has been raising rates in an effort to cool the economy and bring inflation back down to its target of 2%.

The decision to raise rates will have a significant impact on borrowers. Mortgage rates are already at their highest level in years, and they are likely to go even higher. This will make it more expensive for people to buy homes and refinance their mortgages.

Savers, on the other hand, will benefit from the higher interest rates. They will earn more interest on their savings accounts and other deposits.

The Bank of England has said that it is prepared to raise rates further if necessary. It will be watching inflation closely in the coming months to see if it is starting to come down.

By happenstance the Bank of Brazil cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points today, to 13.25%. This is the first rate cut in three years, and it comes as inflation in Brazil has begun to cool.

Inflation in Brazil was running at a 10-year high of 11.73% in June. However, it has since come down to 10.9% in July. The Bank is now confident that it will reach its target of 4% by the end of the year. The Bank of Brazil is hoping that by cutting rates, it can help to boost economic growth and further cool inflation.

The decision to cut rates was widely expected by economists. They had been forecasting a rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points. The fact that the Bank of Brazil opted for a larger cut suggests that it is more confident that inflation is starting to come under control.

Brazil was among the first major economies to start increasing their interest rates. They are now the first to cut, it is a sign of things to come.

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Wednesday, August 02, 2023

Fitch Downgrades US Credit Rating To AA+

 


Fitch Ratings has downgraded the United States' credit rating from AAA to AA+. The downgrade comes as a result of concerns about the country's fiscal health, as well as the political gridlock that has made it difficult to address these concerns.

Fitch cited a number of factors in its decision to downgrade the US rating. These include:

  • The country's growing debt burden, which is now over $30 trillion.
  • The projected decline in the US economy, which is expected to grow at an average annual rate of just 1.2% over the next three years.
  • The repeated debt ceiling crises that have threatened the government's ability to pay its bills.
  • The political gridlock in Washington, which has made it difficult to pass legislation that would address the country's fiscal problems.

The downgrade is a significant blow to the US government's reputation and could make it more difficult for the government to borrow money in the future. It could also lead to higher interest rates, which would make it more expensive for businesses and consumers to borrow money.

The US government has responded to the downgrade by saying that it is "confident" in the country's fiscal future. However, the downgrade is a reminder that the US government's finances are not as strong as they once were. It is also a sign that the political gridlock in Washington is having a negative impact on the country's economy.

The Treasury Department responded to the downgrade by calling it "arbitrary" and "unjustified." The department said that the US government remains "the most creditworthy sovereign in the world" and that the downgrade "does not reflect the underlying strength of the US economy."

The Treasury is ignoring the very likely probability that the US is heading towards a government shutdown later this year.

The debt trajectory is NOT sustainable and the US is now spending 14% of tax revenues in interest payments.

UNSUSTAINABLE!

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Tuesday, August 01, 2023

Coutts Performs Volte Farce - Offers To Reopen Farage's Accounts


 

Nigel Farage has said that Coutts is offering to keep his personal and business accounts open. The former Ukip leader had previously accused the private bank of closing his accounts because of his political views.

Farage said that he had received a letter from the new chief executive of Coutts, Mohammad Syed, offering to reinstate his accounts. Syed said that he had "reconsidered the decision" to close Farage's accounts and that he was "happy to welcome him back as a customer."

Farage said that he was "grateful" for the offer, but that he was still considering his legal options. He said that he wanted to understand why Coutts had originally closed his accounts and that he wanted to ensure that no other customers were treated in the same way.

The decision by Coutts to offer to reinstate Farage's accounts comes after a period of intense public scrutiny. The bank has been accused of political bias and of discriminating against customers on the basis of their political views.

In response to the criticism, Coutts has said that it is "committed to providing a fair and impartial service to all of our customers." The bank has also said that it is "reviewing its policies and procedures" to ensure that no other customers are affected in the same way as Farage.

It remains to be seen whether Farage will accept Coutts' offer to reinstate his accounts.

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Costa Coffee Currently In Doubling Down Phase of Brand Destruction

 


Costa Coffee is currently in the doubling down phase of brand destruction (before it conducts a 180 degree U turn and admits it got wrong).

My sympathies to the shareholders of Coke (the holding company), this will give your shares a wobble.

I wonder why it is that companies never learn that fucking around with your brand and your customer base is never a good idea?

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Thursday, July 27, 2023

CEO of Coutts Peter Flavel Resigns

Howard Davies will be next.

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EAC Worried That Bank of England is Over Egging The Pudding


 

The Bank of England is facing growing pressure from its own Treasury advisers to slow down its campaign to raise interest rates.

A majority of the seven-member Economic Advisory Council to Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt believes that the bank is risking pushing the UK into an unnecessary recession by raising rates too quickly.

The council's concerns are based on the view that inflation is already starting to fall, and that further rate hikes would do more harm than good.

The Bank of England has raised rates five times since December, taking them to their highest level in 13 years.

The central bank has said that it is committed to bringing inflation back to its 2% target, but the council's members believe that the bank is now overshooting its mark.

"We are worried that the Bank of England is raising rates too fast," said one council member. "We believe that inflation is already starting to fall, and that further rate hikes would risk pushing the economy into a recession."

The council's concerns are echoed by some economists, who believe that the Bank of England is now behind the curve in its fight against inflation.

"The Bank of England has been slow to react to the rise in inflation, and now it is overcompensating," said one economist. "This could lead to a sharp slowdown in economic growth."

The Bank of England is due to announce its next interest rate decision on August 4.

It is unclear whether the bank will heed the advice of its Treasury advisers and slow down its campaign to raise rates.

However, the council's concerns suggest that the bank is facing mounting pressure to change course.

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