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Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Wheels Start To Come Off Greek Bailout

Unsurprisingly, less than 24 hours after the announcement that the bailout had been agreed and that the Greek crisis had been "solved", the wheels are now coming off the agreement.

There will be a G20 summit in Mexico on 25-26 February, where the EU will beg the IMF to increase its contributions to prop up its firewall.

Unfortunately, the IMF regards the EFSF as a busted flush, and has no intention of throwing any more money into the doomed project. In fact, according to the Telegraph, the IMF will threaten to pull the plug on its contribution to the Euro130BN bailout unless the Eurozone creates a Euro750BN fund.

The small problem with this idea is that Germany has no intention of creating such a fund, because it would increase Germany's exposure to default.

Olli Rehn, the EU's economic and monetary affairs commissioner, wants to merge the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) with a new European Stability Mechanism (ESM) which has yet to be created.

The fantasy value of this yet to be created ESM is Euro500BN.

However, as with the ludicrous "values" placed on the busted flush of the EFSF, it is safe to assume that the ESM will never reach that level.

As with all matters pertaining to the Eurozone firewall and the bailout, the "leaders" of the Eurozone are building castles in the air.

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