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Saturday, February 21, 2015

The Greek "Agreement"

The Eurogroup has given Greece until Monday to come up with a set of budgetary measures that will allow a successful signing off of the 4 month extension agreed yesterday.

The Troika still exists, and will exercise oversight. However, it will no longer be officially called the Troika.

The Greek government, in addition to coming up with budget measures that satisfy the Troika, will have to sell this to its people/coalition partners.

At best this has bought Greece and the Eurozone 4 months. In June everyone will have to go through the whole exercise again. However, before then it is likely that Greece will have left the Eurozone (either willingly, or because its financial system has collapsed).

In the meantime it is highly likely that capital controls will be imposed, probably over this weekend.

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