Trump Nails It!

BP's Volte-Farce

Nice round trip to nowhere. Good exemple how US is sprinting while Europe is wasting very precious time yielding to the diktat of a hysterical ideological mob. Only to volte-face https://t.co/MBecUO3iE2

— #bigflip KKGB (Carlo Casio) (@INArteCarloDoss) February 7, 2023

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Total Nixes £100M Investment

Total Pulls £100 Million North Sea Drilling Investment After Windfall Tax https://t.co/KNCuWLNQEs pic.twitter.com/pMQBZixZo7

— Gaia Fawkes (@GaiaFawkes) December 2, 2022

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Don't Use Strategic Reserves To Manipulate The Market

SAUDI ENERGY MINISTER SAYS PEOPLE ARE DEPLETING THEIR EMERGENCY STOCK AND USE IT AS A MECHANISM TO MANIPULATE MARKET WHEN ITS PURPOSE WAS TO MITIGATE SHORTAGES OF SUPPLY

— First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) October 25, 2022

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Egypt is Laundering Russian Oil

Increasing volumes of Russian oil products are appear to be landing in Saudi Arabia by way of Egypt, Bloomberg reported.

While Egypt exported fuels to Saudi Arabia before Russia invaded Ukraine, Saudi Arabia is now taking 3.2 million barrels of power station fuel from Egypt this month, according to data from Vortexa cited by Bloomberg, marking a six-year high. Meanwhile, Egypt's imports of the fuel from Russia are soaring to 1.8 million barrels, the highest since at least 2016.

"It appears that increasing volumes of Russian fuel oil are making their way to Saudi Arabia via Egypt," Jonathan Leitch, an oil market analyst at Turner, Mason & Co., told Bloomberg.

The oil is also being bought by the EU.

 Hence sanctions are not hurting Putin at all!

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Oil Goes Negative

The glut of oil and the massively reduced demand for it has played havoc with the price of crude, to such an extent that the price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark for US oil, fell as low as minus $37.63 a barrel yesterday.

You can't eat it and you can't drink it, so without a functioning global economy its value will continue to fall.

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Total Pulls Out of Iran

BREAKING: French oil giant Total has cancelled its operations in Iran

— The Spectator Index (@spectatorindex) August 20, 2018

Oil Up - World Peace Declared

The Iran sanctions have officially been cast. These are the most biting sanctions ever imposed, and in November they ratchet up to yet another level. Anyone doing business with Iran will NOT be doing business with the United States. I am asking for WORLD PEACE, nothing less!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 7, 2018

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Oil Down

Oil prices fall on U.S. stock rise, higher supply https://t.co/ELziKeSYgd pic.twitter.com/uTqHylpka6

— Reuters Top News (@Reuters) July 18, 2018

This gives Trump room to double down on Iran.

It's The Oil Price Stupid!

If oil prices are “to high,” there’s one obvious culprit – a supply side of the global market that’s looking, um, to tight, says @davidfickling https://t.co/64AySWhCMK via @bopinion pic.twitter.com/bVGnLlaoii

— Bloomberg (@business) July 2, 2018

As the USA looks to put the screws on Iran, in an attempt to change the regime there, it needs a stable oil price.

Of course a cynic might say that stability can be achieved by not fucking around with Middle Eastern countries, but I assume (given that the policy is to fuck around) that those running America have more education and intelligence than I possess!

Oil Prices Jump 5%

BREAKING: Oil prices have jumped 5%

— The Int'l Spectator (@intlspectator) September 5, 2016

Oil Freeze Agreed

OPEC production freeze at Jan level, Oil was up 6%, now 1%

Qatar, Saudi, Russia, Venezuela, Nigeria: account for 27% of production#WTI

— Lawrence McDonald (@Convertbond) February 16, 2016
Let us see how this pans out in reality, given that Saudi Arabia and Russia are about to go toe to toe in Syria!

USA Criticises UK Oil Tax

The US Energy Department has robustly criticised the UK's tax increases on petroleum exploration.

Washington said the increase in Britain’s petroleum revenue tax to 81% of profits for old fields and 62% for newer ventures pushed through in 2011, along with other penalties and a cap on relief for winding down old fields, have choked North Sea exploration and paralysed a string of major projects.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is quoted in the Telegraph:

“As a result of the significant increases in taxes, the UK Continental Shelf [UKCS] projects have become even less competitive.

Increases in operating costs coupled with higher taxes have resulted in decreased investment in both brownfields and new exploration. Even without the increased taxes, operating costs in the UKCS were prohibitively high, exacerbated by the high decommissioning costs of old facilities.”

'Twas ever thus, governments short of cash rarely cut expenditure; instead they increase taxes.
 

Putin In Another World - Markets Panic

As the crisis in Ukraine escalates, exchanges in Europe and Russia are falling and commodity prices (gold and oil in particular) are rising as people seek "safe havens" for their money.

Russian assets in particular are falling, and the Russian central bank increased interest rates (the one-week repurchasing agreement was hiked from 5.5% to 7%) in order to prop up the falling rouble.

Reuters reports that the rouble fell 2% to 36.41 against the dollar and 1.2% to 50.10 against the euro, trading at all-time lows.

The rouble-denominated MICEX index of Russian shares tumbled 9.1% to 1,314.8 points and the dollar-denominated RTS .IRTS collapsed 10.3% to 1,137.1 points.

In effect the markets are reacting out of fear and panic, as and when some clarity emerges the markets will settle. However, there will be significant periods of instability in the coming weeks as there is little evidence that clarity will emerge anytime soon; not least because (as per the New York Times) Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany told Mr. Obama by telephone on Sunday that after speaking with Mr. Putin she was not sure that he was in touch with reality, people briefed on the call said. “In another world” she said.

Suffice to say, Putin and his cronies will have made a fortune on their gold and oil futures!

Greece Oil Shock

In January I warned that the EU embargo on Iranian oil would cause Greece problems:

"There has been much hype and sanctimonious puffing of chests from the EU about its agreement "in principle" to ban imports of oil from Iran.

However, as Paul Stevens economist and emeritus professor at Dundee University in Scotland notes, Greece currently imports 30% of its domestic oil from Iran on favourable terms.

Were Iranian oil imports to be banned, where would Greece get its oil from?

Saudi Arabia?

Maybe, but at an economy busting $150+ per barrel.

As with all EU "plans" this one has not been thought through ."

In February I noted that:

"They are currently negotiating for supplies of oil from elsewhere, any admission that their supplies have been cut will negatively impact those negotiations and cause panic buying in Greece."

As predicted, things are not going well; as reported by News.AZ:

"The EU has postponed an April deadline to review the impacts of the bloc’s embargo on oil imports from Iran due to Greece's concerns on finding new oil suppliers."

As ever with all EU "plans", no one has bothered to think through the consequences of them.

Oh The Irony - Panic Buying Saved Britain

In a twist of irony, it seems that the panic buying of petrol caused by the government mishandling of the tanker drivers' dispute may have helped pull Britain out of recession.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed a 1.8% month-on-month increase in retail sales volumes and a 3.3% year-on-year rise. The increase was above economist forecasts, and were partly helped by a 4.9% increase in petrol purchases.

Obama Demonises Oil Speculators

President Obama has today castigated oil speculators for manipulating the oil market, and has proposed new measures to limit speculation in the oil markets,.

This is rather ironic, as only a month ago the Whitehouse manipulated the oil market by leaking rumours (and then denying them) of a release of strategic reserves which of course sent the price of oil down.

Greece's Oil Shock

In February I wrote that Hellenic (Greece's main oil refiner):

"are currently negotiating for supplies of oil from elsewhere, any admission that their supplies have been cut will negatively impact those negotiations and cause panic buying in Greece."

Today Hellenic have announced that it has suspended purchases of Iranian crude in April, as approaching sanctions on Tehran have made banking payments virtually impossible.

This of course means that its negotiations for reasonably priced supplies for Greece from elsewhere have just been torpedoed.  

Hardly good news for the imploding Greek economy!

Emergency Oil Reserves Tapped

The US and UK have agreed (ahead of the US fleet boosting its presence in the Gulf, and SWIFT cutting Iran off from the world's financial system) to release reserves of emergency oil stocks.

UPDATE

The Whitehouse are currently denying the veracity of this report. Meanwhile the "inaccurate" report has had the desired effect of driving oil prices lower.

Funny that!

FURTHER UPDATE

The Prime Minister's official spokesman re Obama Cameron talks has admitted that the issue was discussed:

"The issue of oil supply was discussed but no decisions were made."

You can rest assured that the decision has been been made, and will be implemented on a predetermined date/event.

Oil Shipment To Greece Stopped

"Greece relied on Iran for more than half of its oil imports during some months last year after traders and oil majors pulled the plug on supplies and banks refused to provide financing for fear that Athens
would default on its debt."

Unfortunately, Iran has just stopped a shipment of oil to Greece:

"Oil tankers that had come to transfer 500,000 barrels of Iranian oil to a refinery in Greece had to go back empty-handed after Iran refused to give the shipment,"

However, Hellenic have denied the veracity of this story :

"That has nothing to do with us ... all supplies from Iran have been processed normally,"

Well, they would have to deny this wouldn't they?

They are currently negotiating for supplies of oil from elsewhere, any admission that their supplies have been cut will negatively impact those negotiations and cause panic buying in Greece.

Beware denials and irrational optimism from Greek oil companies!