Monday, May 17, 2010

Euro Hit by Austerity and Debt Worries

The Euro is continuing to fall, as markets fret over debt and austerity issues within the Eurozone.

The Euro750BN EU/IMF rescue package has, as I noted last week, produced nothing more than a dead cat bounce.

Once the cats have firmly returned to earth, the next stage in market adjustment will be the "panic" stage (ie a sustained sell off of the Euro).

Like it or not, in order for the Eurozone to succeed in the long term, the 16 members' economies have to be in sync. Aside from the idiocy of Greece fraudulently fixing the numbers in order to gain entry, the "happy coincidence" of 16 such widely diverse economies ever being in true sync simply is never going to happen.

One centrally fixed interest rate/monetary policy will not fit all 16 members. The result of the economic imbalance between member states will be social and political meltdown, as already seen in Greece, in the weaker members of the Eurozone.

Der Spiegel have published an interview with Jean-Claude Trichet, the European Central Bank president, in which he says that Europe's economy "is in its most difficult situation since World War II or perhaps even since World War I."

One by one the weaker members (PIGS) will be forced out of the Euro.

Quite frankly, from their perspective and indeed from the perspective of the "core members" of the Eurozone (France and Germany), that will be the best possible thing that could happen for everyone.

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