The Economic Wasteland That Is The Eurozone

The September unemployment figures for the Eurozone make grim reading, for the Eurozone as whole the unemployment rate hit a record high of 11.6%.

That is a figure that is both shameful and dangerous.

However, dig deeper and it can be seen that Spain and Greece are suffering even more with rates of 25.8% and 25.1% respectively.

To add to the woes of the Greek people Greek finance Minister, Yiannis Stournaras, has submitted the 2013 budget to parliament. If the current policies of austerity, being imposed to assuage the Troika, are maintained/pursued:

-Public debt to GDP will hit 189.1%
-There will be a general government deficit of 5.2%
-There will be an economic contraction of 4.5%

It is clear that with rates of unemployment and debt at these levels democracy will be hard pressed to survive, as people will reach out for any ideology other than Eurozone austerity to save them.

Yet what does the European Commission do?

It asks for a budget increase of 5% to feed its bloated bureaucracy and those that serve it, whilst forcing the people of Greece and other Southern European states into penury.

This is a recipe for revolution.

UBS Redundancies Smokescreen

Whilst UBS is enveloped by the smokescreen of publicity derived from its mass culling (and handling of that mass culling) of staff today, it seems to have been a "good" day for it to also let the world know that it is under investigation in Singapore, along with other banks, for possible manipulation of Libor and other benchmark rates.

As per Reuters:

"These investigations focus on whether there were improper attempts by UBS (among others), either acting on our own or together with others, to manipulate LIBOR and other benchmark rates at certain times."

 

UBS - U've Been Sacked

UBS may well regret how it has handled informing its staff about their redundancies today.

The FT reports that UBS was one of the most popular trends on twitter, as the blogosphere flooded with comments describing the shock and resentment of staff.

According to the PR bullshit being spouted by UBS the redundancies are a ‘strategic acceleration from position of strength.’

Who hires these people, and why are they still in their jobs?

UBS Redundancies Update

Ralph Sinclair has tweeted the follwoing:

"From inside 100 Liverpool Street: "Whole desks are gone and there are people stood outside without access to the building."

UBS Redundancies

It seems that UBS is making some people redundant today and over the next three years (10,000 in total).

Sadly, as per Owen Callan, UBS is using the "old school" method of informing them.

People arrive at work, if their passes don't work they are ushered into a special room where they are told that they are on special leave.

Greece Riskier Than Syria

The Washington Post reports that an annual survey of finance directors by BDO has found that Greece is considered a riskier place to invest and set up business in than Syria.

Only Iran and Iraq are considered more risky than Greece.

Greece Fails To Meet Targets

Unsurprisingly Greece is failing to meet its debt targets.

Reuters reports:

"Greek debt will be above the target of 120 percent of GDP in 2020, a preliminary report by the IMF showed on Thursday, and Athens will need more reforms before emergency credit from international lenders can start flowing again."

What now then?

Exit or political fudge?

Cynthia Carroll To Leave Anglo American

Anglo American, the mining giant, has announced that Cynthia Carroll will step down as chief executive after six years at the helm, once a replacement has been found.

She has come under increasing pressure from investors over Anglo's deteriorating share price and the company's industrial relations at its platinum operations in South Africa. Earlier this year shareholders asked the chairman to look for a new chief executive. 

Pensioners To Work For Pensions

In an admission as to how parlous the finances of the UK are, especially wrt funding pensions, Lord Bichard a former benefits chief has suggested that retired people should be encouraged to do community work such as caring for the "very old" or face losing some of their pension.

He is right to prompt a discussion about how pensions can be funded. However, I am not so sure that this is a viable solution.

Aside from the obvious political difficulties of "selling" it to the public, a good many fit retired people play an active role in their local communities already. As such, it is unlikely that even if this idea ever came to fruition it would achieve any measurable financial benefits.

Legs Kicked From Under Property Market

New rules to be announced tomorrow by the FSA wrt conditions on which mortgages can be granted will kick the legs out from under the struggling property market and, by definition (since the British economy is underpinned by the property market), the economy.

The new rules will make it much harder for the following to take out a mortgage:

- those over 50
- the self employed
- those wishing to use an interest only mortgage

Thus, at a stroke, the tenuous recovery that might be occurring within the economy has been stymied.

Das Rheingold - The Funeral of Siegfried?

Germany, the economic "powerhouse" of Europe, is experiencing a crisis of confidence; so much so that in order to assuage some of the more extreme doubters, the Bundesbank audited its gold held in Frankfurt (lest people doubt that it had been sold off) and even allowed MPs to visit it to check for themselves.

So far so wunderbar!

Unfortunately, Germany also holds gold deposits abroad. The FT reports that Suddeutsche estimates about 1500 tonnes are held by the Fed, and about 800 tonnes by the central banks of England and France. The total value being approximately €133BN.

The German court of auditors has, not unreasonably, demanded regular audits of Germany's gold reserves abroad.

Fair enough, and perfectly reasonable, were it not for one "small" problem.

The last audits in New York were in 1979/80, and since then whilst the Bundesbank has been allowed into vault it has not been allowed to open the boxes in which the gold is allegedly stored.

As we all know markets are driven sentiment, and sentiment is affected by fear and doubt. Unless a full audit is conducted in the near future, the fear and doubt will grow to a critical mass and Siegfried may well meet his end.

Rumour has it that the US gold reserves in Fort Knox haven't been audited either, maybe the US needs to do the same as Germany and lance the boil of doubt?

Greece Runs Out of Cash

Greek Prime Minister Samaras has warned that Greece will run out of cash on November 16 unless it receives additional funds before then.

Nokia Rumours

Unsubstantiated rumours are going around that Nokia is to file a chapter 11 in the face of Q3 losses of €576 million.

Merkel Frets About Greece's Schneckentempo

Chancellor Merkel is, not unsurprisingly, becoming a tad peeved at the schneckentempo (snail's pace) of economic reforms in Greece. So peeved in fact that she told the German Lower House of Parliament so this morning, ahead of today's EU summit on the ongoing Eurocrisis.

Sadly, the only ones who will benefit from today's summit are the caterers!

Heil Our EU Overlords!

Germany has demanded an EU “currency commissioner” with sweeping powers to strike down national budgets; a “large step towards fiscal union”; and yet another EU treaty.