Inflation Figures Pave The Way To Stagflation

 

Today's inflation figures show that the UK economy is a basket case.

-Inflation (CPI) unchanged at 8.7% in the 12 months to May 2023.

-CPI rose 0.7% in the month. 

-Core CPI rises in May to 7.1% from 6.8%. 

-Highest reading since 1992. 

Higher prices for air travel and recreational goods and services were a key contributor to inflation over the month. Food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation 18.4%, eased slightly from 19.1% 

Inflation had been expected to fall to 8.4% year on year.

Why is inflation hitting the UK so hard?

1 The billions spunked up the wall on Covid

2 The Covid lockdowns that wrecked the economy

3 The ever useless Bank of England failing to raise rates early enough to stave this off 

4 The war in Ukraine causing a spike in energy prices etc

All of this means that the UK is nnow facing the prospect of several years of stagflation.

Stagflation is a combination of high inflation and slow economic growth. It is a very difficult economic environment to manage, and it can have a devastating impact on businesses and households.

These factors are all combining to create a perfect storm for stagflation in the UK. If inflation continues to rise and economic growth stalls, the UK economy will be in for a very difficult period.

The impact of stagflation will be felt across the economy. Businesses will face higher costs, which would make it more difficult for them to stay profitable. This will lead to job losses and a slowdown in economic activity.

Higher inflation will eat into disposable incomes, making it harder for them to afford essentials. This will lead to a decline in living standards and a rise in poverty.

The government would also face a number of challenges if stagflation were to hit the UK economy. It would need to find ways to support businesses and households, while also trying to control inflation. This would be a very difficult balancing act.

The threat of stagflation is a serious one for the UK economy. It is important that the government and businesses take steps to mitigate the risk. This includes finding ways to reduce energy dependence, supporting businesses to become more energy efficient, and investing in infrastructure.

If the UK is able to avoid stagflation, it will be a major achievement. However, the risk remains, and it is something that businesses and households need to be aware of.

What can you do to prepare for stagflation?

There are a number of things that you can do to prepare for stagflation, including:

• Increase your savings. This will give you a buffer in case your income falls or your expenses rise.
• Pay down debt. This will reduce your monthly outgoings and make you more resilient to financial shocks.
• Invest in assets that are likely to hold their value in stagflation, such as gold or property.
• Diversify your income streams. This will reduce your reliance on a single source of income.
• Make sure you have a financial plan in place. This will help you to stay on track financially, even if the economy takes a turn for the worse.

Stagflation is a serious economic challenge, but it is not insurmountable. By taking steps to prepare, you can reduce your risk and protect your financial future.

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Interest Rates Hit 6% as UK Sleepwalks Into The Next Financial Crisis

 

Interest rates have hit 6%, and the Bank of England is expected to raise them further. Markets expect rates to remain above 6% in 2024. This is bad news for businesses and consumers, who are already struggling with the cost of living crisis.

The problem is that the UK economy is in a very fragile state. Household debt is at record levels, and businesses are facing rising costs. This means that even a small increase in interest rates could have a big impact.

If interest rates continue to rise, it will lead to a recession. This will mean job losses, lower wages, and even more economic pain.

The government needs to do more to help businesses and consumers through this crisis. They need to cut taxes, increase spending, and support businesses that are struggling.

If the government doesn't act, the UK could be sleepwalking into the next crisis.

Here are some of the reasons why the UK is sleepwalking into the next crisis:

• The UK economy is heavily reliant on debt. Household debt is at record levels, and businesses are also heavily indebted. This means that even a small increase in interest rates could have a big impact on the economy.
• The UK is facing rising inflation. Inflation is currently at a 40-year high, and it is expected to continue to rise. This is putting pressure on household budgets and businesses.
• The UK is facing a cost of living crisis. The cost of energy, food, and other essential goods is rising. This is making it difficult for people to make ends meet.
• The UK government is not doing enough to help businesses and consumers. The government has cut taxes, but it has also raised taxes in other areas. This is not helping businesses and consumers who are struggling with the cost of living crisis.

What can be done to prevent the next crisis?

The government needs to do more to help businesses and consumers through this crisis. They need to cut taxes, increase spending, and support businesses that are struggling.

The government also needs to take steps to reduce the UK's reliance on debt. They need to encourage businesses to invest and grow, and they need to help households reduce their debt levels.

If the government doesn't act, the UK could be sleepwalking into the next crisis. This would have a devastating impact on the economy and on people's lives.

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People Think That The Bank of England is Crap - Source: The Bank of England

 

Respondents were asked to assess the way the Bank of England is ‘doing its job to set interest rates to control inflation’. The net satisfaction balance, the proportion satisfied minus the proportion dissatisfied, was -13%, down from -4% in February 2023.

Source: Bank of England

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Bring Back MIRAS to Help Homeowners With Rising Mortgage Rates

 

Mortgage rates have been on the rise in the UK in recent months, and this is putting a strain on many homeowners' budgets. The average rate for a new mortgage is now over 5%, and it's expected to continue to climb in the coming months.

For many homeowners, this means that their monthly mortgage payments are going to go up significantly. This can be a real hardship, especially for those who are already struggling to make ends meet.

One way to help homeowners with rising mortgage rates is to bring back MIRAS. MIRAS, or Mortgage Interest Relief at Source, was a scheme that allowed homeowners to claim tax relief on their mortgage interest payments. This was a great way to help homeowners save money on their monthly mortgage payments, and it also helped to stimulate the housing market.

MIRAS was abolished in 2000, but there have been calls to bring it back in recent years. With mortgage rates on the rise, now is the time to bring back MIRAS and help homeowners with their monthly payments.

How MIRAS Would Help Homeowners

MIRAS would help homeowners in two ways. First, it would reduce the amount of money that homeowners have to pay in mortgage interest each month. This would free up some much-needed cash for other expenses, such as groceries, bills, and transportation.

Second, MIRAS would make it easier for homeowners to afford to buy a home. With MIRAS, homeowners would be able to borrow more money to buy a home, and they would also be able to afford a higher monthly mortgage payment. This would make it easier for more people to become homeowners, which would help to boost the economy.

Why Bring Back MIRAS Now?

There are a few reasons why now is the time to bring back MIRAS. First, mortgage rates are on the rise, and this is putting a strain on many homeowners' budgets. MIRAS would help to offset the rising cost of mortgage interest payments, and it would make it easier for homeowners to afford their monthly payments.

Second, the housing market is currently in a bit of a slump. This is partly due to the rising cost of mortgage interest payments. MIRAS would help to stimulate the housing market by making it easier for people to buy homes.

Finally, MIRAS is a popular policy with the public. A recent poll found that 60% of people support bringing back MIRAS. This shows that there is a clear demand for this policy.

Conclusion

MIRAS is a policy that would help homeowners with rising mortgage rates. It would reduce the amount of money that homeowners have to pay in mortgage interest each month, and it would also make it easier for people to buy homes. Now is the time to bring back MIRAS and help homeowners with their monthly payments.

 

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The Bank of England's Failure Writ Large!

 

Having forgotten the basic rule of economics that a lax money supply stokes inflation, the Bank of England (despite being one of the first central banks to start raising rates) is singularly failing to get inflation under control.

As such, we can expect a long hot summer of continuing interest rate rises.

These will of course push the housing market over the edge, and squash the very modest green shoots of recovery viz the  0.2% rise in GDP in April.

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The Bank of England is Asleep at The Wheel

bit f***ing late for that now

*BOE'S GREENE: MPC MUST `PROACTIVELY ACT' ON INFLATION DYNAMICS

— Michael Brown (@MrMBrown) June 13, 2023

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Russian Banking System Has Crashed

Russia: The entire banking system is at a standstill nationwide because the ISP used for banking communication with the Russian Central Bank is down. Infotel, the ISP, is suspected to have been hacked by a pro-Ukraine group. Sberbank's online services also down. pic.twitter.com/OFjmW8zjLl

— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) June 9, 2023

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Clop Hacks BBC, Boots and BA

A Russian cybercriminal group called Clop has hacked into the payroll service provider Zellis, which provides payroll services to a number of large British companies, including British Airways, Boots, and the BBC. The hackers stole the personal data of tens of thousands of employees at these companies, including names, addresses, Social Security numbers, and dates of birth.

Clop is a ransomware group operating in Russia, that has been active since 2019. Ransomware is a type of malware that encrypts a victim's files and demands a ransom payment in order to decrypt them. Clop is known for using a variety of techniques to infiltrate victim networks, including phishing emails, exploiting vulnerabilities in software, and using brute force attacks.

The BBC has said that the hack will not impact its programming or operations. However, the hack is a reminder of the growing threat of cyberattacks. Businesses of all sizes need to take steps to protect their data from cybercriminals. These steps include:

• Implementing strong security measures: This includes using firewalls, antivirus software, and intrusion detection systems.
• Educating employees about cybersecurity risks: This includes teaching employees how to spot phishing emails and how to create strong passwords.
• Regularly backing up data: This will help to minimize the damage if a cyberattack does occur.
• Having a plan in place to respond to a cyberattack: This plan should include steps for notifying employees, restoring data, and investigating the incident.

Conclusion:

The Clop hack of BA, Boots, and the BBC is a serious incident that highlights the importance of cybersecurity. Businesses need to take steps to protect their data from cybercriminals. By implementing the steps outlined in this blog post, businesses can help to mitigate the risk of a cyberattack.

Call to action:

If you are a business owner, I encourage you to take steps to protect your data from cybercriminals. By implementing the steps outlined in this blog post, you can help to mitigate the risk of a cyberattack.

This is a serious hack that could have a significant impact on the affected companies. It's important for businesses to take cybersecurity seriously and to implement strong security measures to protect their data.

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The City Trumps Europe Again

The UK has widened its lead as Europe’s top draw for financial investors, according to a new report by EY. The report found that the UK attracted 76 financial services FDI projects in 2022, up 17% from the previous year. This represents 26% of all European financial services FDI projects.

The report attributed the UK’s success to a number of factors, including its strong regulatory environment, its skilled workforce, and its access to the single market. The report also noted that the UK government’s post-Brexit reforms to the financial services industry have made the UK an even more attractive destination for investment.

The findings of the EY report are a welcome boost for the UK financial services industry. The industry is a major contributor to the UK economy, generating £2 trillion in annual revenue and employing over 2 million people. The industry is also a key driver of innovation and growth, and it plays a vital role in supporting the UK’s international trade links.

The UK’s continued success in attracting financial investment is a sign that the country remains a leading global financial center. The industry is well-placed to continue to grow and prosper in the years to come.

Here are some of the key reasons why the UK is a top destination for financial investors:

• Strong regulatory environment: The UK has a strong regulatory environment that is designed to protect investors and promote market integrity. The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) is the UK’s financial regulator, and it is responsible for setting rules and standards for the financial services industry. The FCA is widely respected for its expertise and its commitment to protecting consumers.
• Skilled workforce: The UK has a highly skilled workforce that is well-equipped to work in the financial services industry. The UK has a number of world-class universities that produce graduates with the skills that are in demand by financial firms. The UK also has a large pool of experienced professionals who work in the financial services industry.
• Access to the single market: The UK is a member of the single market, which is a free trade area that allows for the free movement of goods, services, capital, and people between 27 EU member states. This gives UK financial firms access to a large and growing market.

The UK government’s post-Brexit reforms to the financial services industry have made the UK an even more attractive destination for investment.

The UK government has introduced a number of reforms to the financial services industry since the UK left the EU. These reforms have been designed to make the UK a more competitive and attractive destination for financial investment. Some of the key reforms include:

• Reduced regulation: The UK government has reduced regulation in some areas of the financial services industry. This has made it easier for financial firms to operate in the UK.
• Lower taxes: The UK government has lowered taxes for financial firms. This has made the UK a more cost-effective place to do business.
• Enhanced access to data: The UK government has enhanced access to data for financial firms. This has made it easier for financial firms to make informed decisions about their investments.

The UK government’s reforms to the financial services industry have been welcomed by many financial firms. These reforms have made the UK a more attractive destination for investment, and they are likely to lead to further growth in the UK financial services industry.

 

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ChatGPT and Google Bard Crash

Both ChatGPT and Google Bard are down.

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The Financial System Explained

 

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Inflation Falls To 8.7%

Inflation has fallen from 10.1% to 8.7%.

However, core inflation (excluding food, energy, booze and fags) rose from 6.2% to 6.8%.

Whatever excuses Bailey and cretins on the MPC come up with, it is clear that the Bank of England have lost control of the situation and have failed in their mandate to keep inflation below 2%

Sack them!

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Bailey Admits He Is Crap!

 

The hapless and hopeless Andrew Bailey (Governor of The Ban of England) has been spewing forth chunks of "wisdom" this morning:

"...We do have a challenge in how we communicate...

...We have a lot to learn about operating policy"

Who appointed this oaf? 

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IMF Couldn't Forecast a Blizzard in The Arctic!

“The IMF said British gross domestic product was set to grow by 0.4% in 2023. In April, it forecast a contraction of 0.3%.” 🥴 https://t.co/dsNf4FQ7RU

— Christopher Snowdon 🇺🇦 (@cjsnowdon) May 23, 2023

 

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US Debt Ceiling Crisis Going To The Wire

The United States is currently facing a debt ceiling crisis. The debt ceiling is the maximum amount of money that the federal government is allowed to borrow. The current debt ceiling is $31.4 trillion. The Treasury Department has warned that if the debt ceiling is not raised by June 1, the government will default on its debt. A default would have a devastating impact on the economy, leading to a recession, job losses, and a decline in the value of the dollar.

Negotiations between Democrats and Republicans over raising the debt ceiling have been stalled. Republicans are demanding spending cuts in exchange for their support for a debt ceiling increase. Democrats have refused to agree to spending cuts, arguing that they would harm the economy.

If the debt ceiling is not raised, the government will be forced to make difficult choices about which bills to pay and which to default on. This could lead to a chaotic situation in which the government is unable to function effectively.

The consequences of a default would be far-reaching. The stock market would likely crash, interest rates would rise, and the value of the dollar would decline. This would make it more expensive for businesses to borrow money and invest, which would lead to job losses and a recession. A default could also lead to a downgrade of the US credit rating, which would make it more expensive for the government to borrow money in the future.

The debt ceiling crisis is a serious threat to the US economy. It is important for Democrats and Republicans to come to an agreement to raise the debt ceiling as soon as possible. A default would have a devastating impact on the economy and could lead to a recession.

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• Attend any meeting with HMRC
• Appeal to the First-tier Tribunal or Upper Tribunal
• Having the security of knowing that fees will be met in full will enable your Accountant (your tax return agent) to defend your position robustly

Please click here for details.