Flybe Bailed Out

Flybe has been saved from the brink of collapse by the government, with a deal that includes deferred tax payments of approximately £100M.

Aside from the fact that BA is not at all happy with the preferential treatment, I wonder if the same largesse shown to Flybe wrt tax will be shown by HMRC to SME's that are having trouble making ends meet?

No, thought not!

Europe's Moral Obligation To Greece

Greek Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos has said that Europe has a moral obligation to grant Greece some form of debt relief, and the International Monetary Fund needs to make up its mind whether it will join the country's bailout.

All very true, maybe. 

However, the fact that Greece has gone through financial hell as a result of its dishonesty/stupidity and the stubbornness of the EU/IMF, I wouldn't bet any money on the IMF or Europe coming round to Mr Tsakalotos's viewpoint any time soon!

Greek Bailout Deal Delayed Again

Unsurprisingly the much vaunted Greek bailout deal is no nearer fruition.

The IMF is dragging its heels. The Fund’s managing director, Christine Lagarde, said that she expects eurozone lenders to be “far more specific” in their commitment to a debt-relief package for Greece.

Quoted by Keep Talking Greece, she said:

“We will carry on working on this debt relief package.

There is not enough clarity yet but I hope that the European partners will continue to progress in that.

We have two issues, policies which are being voted on now, I hope, by the Greek authorities. Much progress has been made and we certainly hope that the Europeans will be far more specific in terms of debt relief, which is also an imperative.” 

In other words, the Quadriga and Greece are still nowhere near a deal.

No surprises there then!

Greece Failing To Hit Targets

140 prior actions #Greece has to complete for 2nd review, 80 involve legislation, 40 have been completed,100 are left- EU Official

— Eleni Varvitsiotis (@Elbarbie) May 5, 2017

EU official : #Greece 2017 growth forecast will be revised down to about 2% from 2,7% original forecast

— Eleni Varvitsiotis (@Elbarbie) May 5, 2017

Given the poor performance of Greece wrt meeting targets and forecasts, why are people deluding themselves about the chances of a bailout deal being agreed?

Tsipras Demands Debt Relief

Alexis Tsipras, Greek prime minister, insists that Greece will legislate additional tax and pension reforms demanded by the Quadriga.

However, no legislation will be passed until a deal on debt relief was in place.

Notwithstanding this, Tsipras is confident that a deal to be wrapped up by May 22.

How many times have people expressed "confidence" that a deal for Greece would be "wrapped up"?

Delusion at the very height of government!

Greek Bailout Talks Grind To a Halt

'Greek bailout talks stumble on politically sensitive issues' -- my take → https://t.co/2XvV4guqxB #Eurogroup #Greece 🇪🇺 🇬🇷 💶

— Yannis Koutsomitis (@YanniKouts) April 4, 2017

Last week I warned people not to believe the hype over the alleged progress and agreement on the Greek bailout talks.

As can be seen, I was right to issue that warning.

Greece is unwilling and incapable of implementing the reforms that the Quadriga are demanding.

Greek Creditors Allegedly Reach Preliminary Agreement

GREECE, INTERNATIONAL LENDERS REACH PRELIMINARY DEAL ON KEY LABOUR REFORMS, PENSION CUTS IN BAILOUT REVIEW TALKS - SOURCES

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 29, 2017

How many times have we heard this before?

Don't believe the hype!

#Grexit Looms Large Again - Greek Banks Haemorrhaging Cash

Greece’s beleaguered banking system has taken a fresh hit from the country’s shaky bailout talks this year, registering its worst deposit outflows since the height of its debt crisis in the summer of 2015.

The FT reports that the latest figures from the European Central Bank showed households and businesses pulled €1.1bn from the country’s lenders last month, moderating from the €1.7bn withdrawn at the start of the year but marking the worst two-monthly outflow since the country was bought to the brink of a eurozone exit nearly two years ago.

For why?

There is no sign of agreement between Greece and the Quadriga wrt the bailout. Indeed there is no sign of agreement between the IMF and other members of the Quadriga over the terms of the bailout!

IMF and Eurozone Agree Common Stance on Greece

Reuters reports that the IMF and Eurozone have finally come to an agreement as to what they will say to Greece today.

A meeting between the lenders and Greek officials is scheduled for later today, the head of euro zone finance ministers Jeroen Dijsselbloem said in The Hague.

"There is agreement to present a united front to the Greeks," the eurozone official said, adding that the outcome of Friday's meeting with the Greeks was still unclear and it was unclear if Athens would accept the proposals.

I think it fair to say that if the IMF and Eurozone really have come to a common stance, then Greece will not like it!

Malloch Predicts Grexit and Euro Demise

Ted Malloch, the US ambassador to the EU, expects Greece to leave to euro and suspects that the eurozone's days are numbered.

As per Zerohedge:

“If the [IMF] will not participate in a new bailout that does not include substantial debt relief, and that’s what they are saying, then that, more or less, ensures a collision course with eurozone creditors.

Now we all know that primarily [puts pressure on] Germany, which remains opposed to any such actions, so I think it suggests that Greece might have to sever ties and do Grexit and exit the euro."

Suffice to say the EU doesn't want to hear defeatist talk like this, and is collectively whining at full pitch about Malloch's appointment!

Greece's Oncoming Explosion

The International Monetary Fund has warned that Greece’s debts are on an “explosive” path, despite years of bailouts and half hearted economic reforms.

This oncoming explosion existentially threatens the eurozone itself.

The solution according to the IMF is debt forgiveness.

However, as noted many times before on this site, neither Germany nor the other members of the Quadriga (sans IMF) have forgiveness in their hearts.

Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the Eurogroup President repeated the mantra saying there would be no Greek debt forgiveness and dismissing the IMF assessment of Greece’s growth prospects as overly pessimistic.

This will not end well!

Greece - The Crisis That Refuses To Go Away

Despite the media's obsession with Trump, there are other issues in the world.

One such issue being the ongoing Greek financial crisis, which has not gone away and is not likely to be solved.

Those who are optimistic for the chances of a solution should bear in mind that the IMF doesn't think that Greek debt is sustainable and that a write down is required. Germany, however, won't countenance a write down.

In short, there are no signs of a solution.

Greece Moves The Goalposts Again

Moodys says #Greece's renewed tensions with creditors 'signal delays in second programme review, a credit negative'.

— Yannis Koutsomitis (@YanniKouts) December 19, 2016

Greece Caught Between Rock and a Hard Place

IMF:More debt relief,lower surpluses after 2018. Schäuble:IMF in program,but no relief nor lower surpluses. Enough w/ games against #Greece.

— Dim. Papadimoulis (@papadimoulis) December 8, 2016

Greece should do itself a favour, and leave the Eurozone.

Greek Crisis Hasn't Gone Away

Whilst the media have been distracted by Brexit and Trump, the Greek debt crisis hasn't gone away.

As per the Wall Street Journal Germany and the Netherlands have promised their parliaments that they won’t ask for more money for Greece unless the IMF also resumes lending to Greece.

However, the IMF won’t do this unless it is satisfied that Greece’s debt burden is sustainable. For the IMF, this is a question of institutional credibility. It has already put its name to two failed programs, and it is determined that it will only join a third program if it is convinced that Greece can return to the markets at the end of it, its financial sovereignty restored.

Fat chance of that!

Greece Gets Another 2.8BN Euros

Eurozone approves 2.8B euros in bailout funds for #Greece #Luxembourg https://t.co/A0qvCSk2K5 pic.twitter.com/YHNJ4fVsC4

— Trending Greece News (@greekolizer) October 25, 2016

The taxpayers of Europe are throwing their money away, or rather are having their money thrown away for them!

Greece Needs Fourth Bailout

This has been inevitable ever since the third bailout, which was inevitable after the second, which..... https://t.co/xawcCxgcKp

— (((FrancesCoppola))) (@Frances_Coppola) October 14, 2016

Why oh why does Greece want to stay in the Eurozone?

The Greek Guide On How Not To Negotiate

Greek PM: 1 Tears up agreement that would have delivered debt relief. 2 negotiates far worse deal with creditors 3 Demands new debt relief

— Martin Baccardax (@mdbaccardax) September 8, 2016

Greek Bailout Frozen - The Greek Farce Continues

The wheels have fallen off the Greek bailout wagon yet again.

After approving a first tranche of €10.3bn for Greece this spring, of which €7.5bn has so far been released, the 19 Euro finance ministers were due to disburse the rest this month but are to withhold payment for the rest of the year.

For why?

Greece has only implemented 2 of the 15 agreed reforms that were meant to be implemented in order for it to receive the bailout.

The farce continues!

No More Money For Greece

EU won't disburse more bailout money for Greece

Read more: https://t.co/Ei5q72Gxsj pic.twitter.com/8A5PU1mhSe

— Forum MT5 (@forum_mt5) September 5, 2016