In the past 24 hours, UK gilt yields have surged to a five-month high. This spike follows the announcement of Chancellor Rachel Reeves' Autumn Budget, which has been described as the largest tax increase in over thirty years. The 10-year gilt yield closed 3.5 basis points higher on Wednesday, reversing an earlier fall as markets adjusted to higher borrowing figures than anticipated, and now sits at 4.41%.
Why the Budget is Impacting Gilt Yields
The Budget revealed plans for significant increases in government borrowing to fund infrastructure spending. This has led to uncertainty among investors, who are now demanding higher returns to compensate for the perceived increase in risk. The rise in gilt yields indicates that investors are concerned about the UK's fiscal health and the potential for higher inflation and weaker currency.
Why This is Bad News
Higher Borrowing Costs: As gilt yields rise, the cost for the government to borrow money increases. This means that more of the government's budget will be spent on interest payments, leaving less money available for public services and investment.
Impact on Businesses: Higher borrowing costs can lead to higher interest rates for businesses, making it more expensive for them to finance their operations and investments. This can slow down economic growth and lead to job losses.
Effect on Consumers: Higher interest rates can also affect consumers, making it more expensive to borrow money for things like mortgages and car loans. This can reduce consumer spending and further slow down the economy.
Market Volatility: The rise in gilt yields can lead to increased volatility in financial markets, as investors react to the changing economic outlook. This can create uncertainty and make it harder for businesses and consumers to plan for the future.
In summary the rise in gilt yields highlights the challenges and risks associated with higher borrowing and spending. It remains to be seen how the government will manage these risks and whether they can reassure investors and stabilise the market.
Labour blamed Truss for spiking the gilt market when she was PM.
Yet, here we are with a Labour government and gilts are at 4.41%. This is in fact higher than the Truss spike.
I wonder what Kwasi is thinking?
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