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Thursday, September 27, 2012

ONS Revises Its Figures Yet Again!

On July 25 I wrote the following:

"UK GDP has contracted by 0.7% in the second quarter of 2012, thus bringing the UK into a double dip recession.

However, this figure needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, ONS figures are out of date and are invariably wrong
."
In August I wrote the following:
"As predicted, it transpires that the ONS figures were of course wrong. Economia reports that the ONS has revised its figures upwards from -0.7% to -0.5%."
One month on and the hapless and hopeless Office for National Statistics (ONS) have yet again revised their figures upwards, this time to -0.4%.

As I have noted many times before it is extremely unwise to rely on figures provided by the ONS, they are always out of date and invariably wrong; eg in February this year inflation figures spiked partly because the ONS (as per usual) had been erroneously under reporting inflation (clothing) for several years, and the resulting correction caused a spike in inflation.

Instead of the government and the Bank of England relying on and using ONS figures to to try to manage the economy, they may as well rely on reading goat entrails as these would be more accurate, timely and easier to interpret!

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