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Monday, July 18, 2011

The Greek Tragedy - Politicians Dither

As the results of the "stress tests" on European banks are digested, the markets have started the week in negative territory.

Aside from the fact that the "stress tests" appear to have been very "biased" in favour of a positive result, and the fact that Greece is quite clearly going to default, markets are particularly spooked by the fact that the EU continues to dither over what to do about the ongoing crisis.

Splits at the heart of Europe have developed over whether to cut Greece lose, or support it.

Realistically the EU faces two choices; either abandon the Euro experiment as it currently stands, or opt for full speed fiscal and political union.

Given that the latter requires significant political will, and given that the leaders of Europe cannot agree, it is clear that full-scale union will not happen.

Therefore the markets know full well that, at the very least, countries such as Greece will leave the Euro.

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