Germany is Not Very SWIFT

GERMAN GOVERNMENT SPOKESPERSON SAYS - A SUSPENSION OF SWIFT PAYMENTS SYSTEM WOULD HAVE MASSIVE IMPACT ON GERMAN BUSINESS AND REQUIRE LOTS OF PREPARATION

— First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) February 25, 2022

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Swift Wars II - Sanctions Ratcheted Up

The Telegraph reports that the US, Japan, Germany, Britain, France, Italy and Canada have agreed to "intensify targeted sanctions to increase the costs of Russia's actions" unless the Kremlin takes immediate steps to defuse the crisis in Ukraine.

The G7 is for now holding back Iranian-style "stage 3" sanctions against the whole Russian banking system, mining industry, or the oil and gas nexus. This nuclear option will be deployed only if Russia escalates from black operations in Eastern Ukraine to an outright invasion, said Alastair Newton, head of political risk at Nomura.

Maybe so in public.

However, behind the scenes the UST will already be pressuring banks and financial institutions to "review" their dealings with Russia. Indeed some institutions are so nervous about UST disapproval that they act before being approached, step forward JPMorgan.

SWIFT Wars - America Blinks First

America's attempt to use SWIFT (letting JPMorgan block a Russian payment for Sogaz, part-owned by sanctioned Bank Rossiya) as a means of pressurising Russia into backing down in the Crimea dispute has fizzled out, as America has blinked first.

JPMorgan will now, "following consultation with our regulators", process the payment.

Whilst this little financial skirmish, on the face of it, appears to have fizzled out there will be long term ramifications. Russia and other countries (eg China, those in the Middle East etc) will not accept having their economies threatened by US actions such as this, the Dollar will not remain the reserve currency of the world for much longer.