The True Costs of Independence

As the consequences of a "yes" vote finally dawn, Britain’s banks have been laying plans lest there be a run on the banks' ATMs in Scotland on Friday after a "Yes" vote.

As such they have, according to the Independent, been moving millions of banknotes to Scotland.

Sources at major banks said they had been issuing clear instructions to their Scottish branches to reassure customers there was no reason to panic.

Aside from bank runs, and losses of corporate headquarters another cost (that has yet to be openly factored in/discussed) is the rebranding of Britain. The loss of the Union Jack will be more than just the flag flying above public buildings, but also its removal from all products currently sporting the image.

Add into that the duplication of bureaucracy and paperwork caused by a divorce of a 300 year old marriage, and you have some very large costs indeed.

I wonder if people really have woken up to the costs of this divorce?

Will Ye No Come Back Again?

Royal Bank of Scotland, Lloyds Banking Group, TSB, Clydesdale, Tesco Bank and Aegon will all leave Scotland if it votes for independence.

The economic costs of such a move cannot be dismissed by Salmond as merely the "removal of a brass plaque". The fact that Salmond does not want to discuss this issue indicates that he has not factored in the costs, or does not want to admit that he has factored in the costs of independence.

Don't do it Scotland, you will regret it!

RBS To Leave Independent Scotland

In the event that Scotland votes "Yes", it has emerged that RBS (without any sense of irony) and Lloyds will leave Scotland and decamp to England setting up their HQ's in London.

With a week to go until the vote, markets are reacting to the daily poll results (they rise when "No" leads, and fall when "Yes" is in the ascendancy). As I have noted before traders are doing very nicely out of the politically induced volatility, let us trust that none of them have foresight of the polls before they are published!

Traders Love Volatility

Unsurprisingly, since the publication of a poll that shows that Scotland is sitting on a knife-edge over independence, the pound has fallen.

The Telegraph reports that Sterling suffered its biggest intra-day loss in over a year, sliding to $1.6150 against the dollar, its lowest point since November. This follows last week’s decline of 0.7% as support for the “Yes” campaign continued to rise.

Kit Juckes, head of foreign exchange research at Societe Generale, said:

“If the ‘Yes’ vote wins, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 3pc to 5pc fall in sterling.”

So what?

A fall in the value of Sterling will be good for exports, and good for England (in the event Scotland leaves the Union).

That being said, there are ten days left before the poll; during this time the FX traders will be making some serious money playing around with the value of Sterling, as newspaper headlines become ever more shrill wrt "saving the Union".

Traders love volatility!