The Falling Pound

The falling Pound (post brexit) should not be feared, but instead should be used as an opportunity.

Brexit Will Not Be a Black Swan Event

The central banks and chancelleries of the world stand ready to steady the ship in the event of a Brexit.

There is nothing to fear, the hype and scaremongering is akin to Y2K which was a damp squib.

The Calm Before The Storm

Eerie Calm Across Markets One Day Before The Main Event: Asia, Europe, US Unchanged https://t.co/SCxWGwyzTV

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 22, 2016

BDI Chief Calls For No Trade Barriers Post Brexit

German Business Chief Calls Possibility of Post-Brexit Barriers "Very, Very Foolish" https://t.co/jZyZG5pk2k via @GuidoFawkes

— John Redwood (@johnredwood) June 22, 2016

Housing Market Stagnates Because of Government Manipulation

House sales still in the doldrums after surge before extra stamp duty slapped on buy to let. 89,000 in May, after 153,000 in March

— Simon Gompertz (@gompertz) June 21, 2016

Governments should learn that they cannot manipulate the housing market without causing blowback.

Sterling Continues To Surge

Sterling surge continues. Now +2.1% vs US$, having its best day since 15 Dec 2008, & its 5th biggest rise since the early 90s ~@ReutersJamie

— Yannis Koutsomitis (@YanniKouts) June 20, 2016

The markets have already called the result, it will be a vote to remain.

Pound Skyrockets

Good morning EMEA! This is all you need to know -> you're looking at the Pound's biggest single-day jump in 6 years pic.twitter.com/ef9AkI5bAf

— David Ingles (@DavidInglesTV) June 20, 2016

Traders will be pulling an all nighter on the 23rd, big bucks to be made on the volatility that will ensue as the votes are counted.

ESM Signs Off €7.5bn Greek Bailout

The European Stability Mechanism has given the green light for Greece's €7.5bn bailout.

However, it is not clear as to whether the IMF is onboard with this; as there has yet to be any debt relief offered to Greece.

Britain's Booming - Brexit Worries Shrugged Off

UK MAY RETAIL SALES +6.0 PCT YY, BIGGEST RISE SINCE SEPT 2015
...what #Brexit risk?

— MineForNothing (@minefornothing) June 16, 2016

FCA Kowtows To Banks Over PPI

FCA thought banks should write to customers over PPI but changed mind to just a marketing campaign - banks victory https://t.co/pVcXmx2MMv

— Katherine Griffiths (@KGriffithsTimes) June 16, 2016

UK Inflation Steady at 0.3%

UK inflation, contrary to expectations, has held steady at 0.3%.

NIRP Doomwatch

WATCH LIVE: Breaking news as German 10-year Bund yield drops below zero for first time https://t.co/64SID8sGBA https://t.co/E67S0totlR

— Bloomberg (@business) June 14, 2016

#Germany's 10-year sovereign bond yield turns negative for the first time ever.#ECB #euro

— Yannis Koutsomitis (@YanniKouts) June 14, 2016

Property Bonanza On Brexit Win

Despite dire warnings from Project Fear, about a collapse in property prices, it transpires that international property investors are poised to “pile into” the UK snapping up office blocks, land and luxury homes if Brexit comes to fruition.

For why?

Theoretically, according to experts, sterling will fall thus making property cheap for international investors.

Guy Grainger, head of Europe, the Middle East and Asia for JLL is quoted by the Telegraph:

“This is the big irony of the leave campaign – which is anti any foreign influence. In the event of a Brexit we may see a price correction in property and a fall in sterling which opportunistic international investors will view as a chance to pile in.” 

A recent report from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors also showed that 80% of their members believed that the fear of an unknown future has held back investment flows. This, combined with high property values in the UK, has created pent up demand ready to react to a price correction.

In other words it is the uncertainty that is currently negatively impacting the economy, not the possibility of Brexit.

West Bromwich Rate Rise Overturned

The Court of Appeal has ruled in favour of 350 landlords who sued West Bromwich building society for raising their tracker mortgage rates in 2013, despite there being no rise in base rates.

The result means that 6,000 borrowers will receive a refund. 

Despite the fact that tracker mortgages are supposed to rise and fall in line with a central interest rates, such as the Bank of England's Bank Rate, West Bromwich had argued that smallprint in its contracts entitled it to raise rates even when the Bank Rate was stable.

It rationalised that its savers had been hard hit by low rates, and wanted to redress the balance by raising rates by 2%.

West Bromwich Building Society issued a statement, quoted by the Telegraph:

"We are disappointed with the judgement handed down today.

This judgement relates to the decision taken in 2013 to vary the interest rate margin charged  in line with the terms and conditions of their buy-to-let mortgages.

Savers, who represent the vast majority of the Society’s members, have suffered a dramatic fall in income due to lower interest rates. The Board of the Society therefore acted in accordance with its overarching duties to treat customers fairly and to act in the best interests of members as a whole, savers as well as borrowers."

That's very noble, but did the building society pass on the full benefits of the 2% rise to its savers?

The ECB's Art of Timing

Morning h/lines:

*ECB SAID TO BUY VOLKSWAGEN BONDS

*GERMAN PROSECUTOR CONFIRMS PROBE INTO POSSIBLE VW DATA DELETION

Bad timing.

— Owen Callan (@OwenCallan) June 9, 2016

Fivefold Increase In 95% Mortgages

The Help to Buy mortgage guarantee scheme has led to a fivefold increase in the number of 95% mortgage products on offer since its inception three years ago.

Unsurprisingly, given the rise in property prices (especially in the South East) people are being forced to take on the largest possible mortgages in order to be able to afford to buy a house.

The Telegraph reports that when the mortgage guarantee scheme was introduced in October 2013, there were 56 mortgages available for 95% of a property’s value. Research conducted by Moneyfacts shows that the number on offer now stands at 271.

Ironically these mortgages are often not accessible for those in the South and South East, where they are needed the most. First-time-buyers in London had an average mortgage size of 77%, compared to 82% in the North West and 84.5% in Yorkshire.

The mortgage guarantee scheme is due to end this year. However, the equity loan scheme, also known as Help to Buy One, which launched in April 2013, will continue until 2020.

BHS Goes Into Liquidation

Following on from the demise and liquidation of Austin Reed, another bastion of the high street hit the bricks.

BHS is to be liquidated after its administrators Duff & Phelps failed to find a buyer, with the closure of 163 stores and the loss of 11,000 jobs.

Administrators Duff & Phelps confirmed that although multiple offers for the business were received, attempts at a rescue deal collapsed because of the working capital required to secure the future of the company.

OECD Sounds Brexit Warning

The OECD has slashed its forecast for UK growth this year to 1.7%, down from an estimate of 2.1% three months ago.

The OECD also warned that a Brexit vote will have a negative impact on the global economy, likening it to a hard landing by China.

The alleged negative economic impact of a Brexit indicates that the OECD believes that Britain plays a major, and indeed vital, role in the global economy. Given Britain's economic stature, I am surprise that the OECD gives Britain such a downbeat assessment for making its own way in the world outwith the EU.