More Unfounded Greek Optimism

Sources in Greek PM's office optimistic for a deal with institutions soon. At 2PM ministers' council in Athens. #Greece

— Stratos Safioleas (@stratosathens) April 30, 2015

Such were the headlines this time last week, just before last Friday's car crash of a Eurogroup meeting!

Greek Pension Cuts Unconstitutional

#Greece Supreme Court to declare austerity cuts in pensions as unconstitutional, reports say. Ruling could completely derail fiscal position

— Yannis Koutsomitis (@YanniKouts) April 30, 2015

Banquo's Ghost

Varoufakis claims that he is still in charge of Greece's debt "negotiations".

Greek Banks Have EU3BN of Liquidity Left

*GREEK BANKS SAID TO HAVE ABOUT EU3B LIQUIDITY AFTER ELA RAISE

— lemasabachthani (@lemasabachthani) April 29, 2015

Greece Warns Holidaymakers To Take Cash

Despite the recent rearrangement of the deckchairs on the sinking Trireme, wrt the sidelining of Varoufakis, Greece is still very much on the precipice.

Municipalities have refused to comply with the central government's smash and grab raid on local cash reserves, and have demanded to know what the cash will be used for and whether Syriza will be honouring its election pledges.

Faced with the reality of capital controls and bank runs, the Greek tourist board in London has advised holidaymakers going to Greece to take euros in notes and coins in case then ATMs are switched off (which seems very likely in the not too distant future).

The Foreign & Commonwealth Office has weighed in, and said that travellers should take "enough money to cover emergencies and any unexpected delays".

It is going to be long hot summer in Athens this year!

Varoufakis To Be Thrown Under The Bus

It would appear that despite the fact that he welcomes hatred, Varoufakis has managed to piss off everyone to such an extent that Tsipras is rearranging the deckchairs of his negotiating team even though the Greek trireme is rapidly sinking beneath the waves.

This rearrangement is somewhat late in the day and will not be enough to save the situation.

Greek Bank Run Continues

According to Bloomberg Greek households and companies withdrew almost 1.3 billion euros in savings from Greek banks last week.

Unsurprisingly the Greek government is beginning to "fret" about the situation (albeit two months too late). Bild reported today that Tsipras asked Merkel to convene an emergency European Union leaders’ summit. Needless to say a Greek government spokesman denied the report.

I dare say that the denial is based on the fact that Merkel refused. Quite rightly so, as she has repeatedly told Tsipras that the decision for providing finance to Greece is not in her gift, but in the hands of the Troika.

Tsipras's attempts to short circuit the Troika simply serve to further isolate the country from its European "partners".

Two Days Is a Long Time In The Greek Tragedy

Just to be clear, Greece was spinning this bullshit only two days ago!! http://t.co/eFPC1Hk0AN #greece #bullshit #hype #delusional

— Ken Frost (@ken_frost) April 24, 2015

Varoufakis The Gambler and Time Waster

@FerroTV "Varoufakis Said to Be Called Gambler, Time-Waster in Meeting"
— MacroMuse (@Manish_05Singh) April 24, 2015

Greece will be back on the agenda again in May, as fuck all was achieved today.

 EPIC FAIL!

Riga Meeting Summary

Summary of what we know on #Eurogroup so far: over quickly, little progress, lots of frustration with #Greece, less than amicable.

— Open Europe (@OpenEurope) April 24, 2015

Unfriendly and fuck all progress.

No surprises there then!

No Greek Deal

Dijsselbloem: "We're going to take stock of the situation and then we'll see what the next weeks will bring us" - i.e. no deal today #Greece
— Open Europe (@OpenEurope) April 24, 2015

Schäuble ahead of #Eurogroup: No one should have any expectations that we will make definitive progress on the question of Greece today

— Open Europe (@OpenEurope) April 24, 2015

As expected, and contrary to the fantasy headlines being pushed by Greece, there will be no deal or even a sniff of a deal in Riga today.

No Breakthrough Expected At Riga

Contrary to Greece's fantasy, there will be no breakthrough at Riga.

DOMBROVSKIS SAYS NO BREAKTHROUGH EXPECTED AT RIGA TALKS

— Jonathan Ferro (@FerroTV) April 23, 2015

Greece Loses Touch With Reality

*GREECE EXPECTS POSITIVE SIGNAL FROM EUROGROUP MEETING IN RIGA *GREEK GOVT OFFICIAL SAYS DEAL WITH CREDITORS VERY CLOSE
— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) April 23, 2015

A remarkable degree of optimism being displayed by Greece, given that it hasn't submitted an acceptable list of reforms and that the ECB is planning for a haircut!

Greece Will Not Present List of Reforms

Thomas Wieser, who heads the Eurogroup Working Group, has said that Greece will not present a list of economic reforms to euro zone finance ministers on Friday

It never had any intention of doing so, the laughable 6 day deadline has long since passed as has any credibility that this process might have once had!

ECB Losing Patience With Greece

Bloomberg reports that the European Central Bank is studying measures to rein in Emergency Liquidity Assistance to Greek banks, as resistance to further aiding the country’s stricken lenders grows in the Governing Council.

ECB staff have produced a proposal to increase the haircuts banks take on the collateral they post when borrowing from the Bank of Greece.

While the measure hasn’t been formally discussed by the Governing Council, it may be considered if Greece’s leaders fail to quickly convince euro-area finance ministers they can reform their economy and secure bailout funds.

Greece - Nothing Achieved!

“Nothing, literally nothing has been achieved.” @Simon_Nixon on the end game for Greece: http://t.co/alhzyEOshO

— Katie Martin (@katie_martin_FX) April 20, 2015

Abject failure by anyone's standard of measurement!

Greece Misses Deadline Again!

On 9th April I wrote the following:

"As per Reuters:

"Euro zone deputy finance ministers gave Athens a six working day deadline to come up with revised reform proposals to enable a deal to be reached at a Eurogroup meeting on April 24."

Greece doesn't believe in deadlines, and the rest of the world has given up on these particular deadlines.

Do not expect anything tangible to be produced by the deadline!"

Fast forward to 20th April and, surprise surprise, nothing tangible has been produced by Greece!

The IMF has made some bleating noises about being "hopeful", but Greece has reiterated that it will not cross its electoral "red lines".

Like it or not, Greece has no intention of producing a reform list that is either coherent or acceptable to the Troika. The IMF and other bodies must now face reality, Greece will default and there is nothing that can be done to avoid that.

Why Did Bloomberg Crash?

Yesterday's Bloomberg outage caused chaos in global financial markets.

Despite the fact that Bloomberg stated that their multi system back didn't kick in, as was self evident, no one has yet publicly stated why the system crashed.

The questions stands, why did Bloomberg crash?

Schauble Washes His Hands of Greece

Wolfgang Schauble, quoted by the Telegraph, has washed his hands of Greece:

"If they want to find money somewhere else, whether in Moscow, or Beijing, or New York, that's fine, we'll be happy.

We will not help a country that refuses to help itself. If Greece wants the next disbursement of €1.8bn, it must fulfil what is agreed. That is called the Memorandum of Understanding."

Over and out!

NatWest Mobile App Issue

@NatWest_Help my Natwest app keeps shutting down before I even type in my password please help thanks

— Ken Frost (@ken_frost) April 17, 2015

@ken_frost Hi Ken, please try to delete the app, text stop to 82628 re-install. Let us know how you get on. AS

— NatWest Help (@NatWest_Help) April 17, 2015

@NatWest_Help thank now working again, why did it collapse?

— Ken Frost (@ken_frost) April 17, 2015

@ken_frost It was just an issue with the recent update, apologies for the inconvenience. AC

— NatWest Help (@NatWest_Help) April 17, 2015

Those of you having problems with your NatWest app may need to follow the steps outlined in the Twitter exchange above.

Greece's Hail Mary

#Greece FinMin @yanisvaroufakis meets in Washington #ECB President at 10am, US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew at 4.30pm & #Italy FinMin at 6pm.
— Manos Giakoumis (@ManosGiakoumis) April 17, 2015

Still attempting a political solution, and avoiding facing the Troika.

This will fail.

Grexit Odds On Cert

NO MORE BETS http://t.co/sWAAMIoTIP pic.twitter.com/57wgLLrh2g

— Joseph Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) April 16, 2015

Greece Planning To Default and Grexit

Yannis Koutsomitis reports that Greek officials have made an informal approach to the IMF to delay repayments of loans to the international lender, highlighting the parlous state of Greek finances, but were told that no rescheduling was possible.

According to officials briefed on the talks by both sides, Athens was persuaded not to make a specific request for a delay to the Fund, which is owed almost a €1bn in two separate payments due in May.

However, this is something that Greece is now denying.

Gov't spox denied the same day that Greece would ask for delay or repayments to the IMF.
— Yannis Koutsomitis (@YanniKouts) April 16, 2015

Whilst a denial is all very well, the reality is that Varoufakis will (as per City A.M.) on Friday (on the tail end of his last chance saloon meeting with Obama) meet with infamous sovereign debt lawyer Lee Buchheit, who has helped numerous countries restructure their debt. Buchheit is a partner at top US law firm Cleary Gottlieb.

Varoufakis is clearly not meeting Buchheit to talk about the weather!

Greece has of course denied that it is planning to leave the euro.

We must of course disregard the denial and look to the reality, Greece is quite evidently planning to:

- Default
- Exit, and
- Devalue its soon to be reintroduced Drachma

The Greek Master Class On How To Win Friends and Influence People

GREEK GOVT HASNT MADE TOO MANY FRIENDS: GUINDOS
— Dealingroom (@Dealingroom_EN) April 15, 2015

1 Join the eurozone by fiddling the books.

2 Borrow an exorbitant amount of money from people, which you know you can't pay back.

3 Don't bother collecting taxes.

4 Blame everyone else for your predicament.

5 Claim an exorbitant amount in war reparations from one of your fellow eurozone members.

6 Miss all deadlines.

7 Publicly slag off fellow eurozone members, especially Germany.

8 Put together a slapdash list of half baked "reform" measures in Greek. but not in any other eurozone language.

9 Threaten to write off "illegal" debt.

10 Threaten to default and call an election if the your creditors don't come to terms with you.

Job done!

Grexit

Greece is preparing for a final showdown with its creditors in the coming days and, if media reports are accurate, will default and hold a snap election if it fails to reach an agreement with its creditors.

Suffice to say Greece has denied these reports.

However, its creditors are no longer in any mood to "play nice" and will view this as an attempt to push for better terms and conditions, an attempt that will be refuted.

Greece's days in the eurozone are numbered, the only question is whether it will leave on its own terms or be pushed out.

The Greek Taxi Driver

Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung (FAS) reported over the weekend that euro zone officials were "shocked" at Greece's failure to outline detailed structural reforms and its demands for cash at talks in Brussels last week. According to FAS, the sources said Greece's representative asked where the money was "like a taxi driver" and insisted his country would soon be bankrupt.

Suffice to say Greece's finance ministry has dismissed the report, saying it was inaccurate and undermined ongoing negotiations.

Irrespective of the accuracy or otherwise of the tax driver comment, Greece has yet to come up with a coherent, viable and auditable reform plan. Hence, it is certain that the euro group is feeling very frustrated at the delays.

Greece's Six day Deadline

As per Reuters:

"Euro zone deputy finance ministers gave Athens a six working day deadline to come up with revised reform proposals to enable a deal to be reached at a Eurogroup meeting on April 24."

Greece doesn't believe in deadlines, and the rest of the world has given up on these particular deadlines.

Do not expect anything tangible to be produced by the deadline!

Greek Easter Bank Holiday

Greek banks will be on Easter holidays later today.

Prepare for an announcement from the Greek government when the markets close.

Greece's Illegal Debt

Greek PM Tsipras says financial aid from Russia is not the solution for negotiations with Eurogroup (@RANsquawk)
— Open Europe (@OpenEurope) April 9, 2015

Meaning that the terms and conditions requested by Russia were not what Greece can currently accede to, and that Greece has a much better plan.

What is the plan?

To write off the debt that it regards as "illegal"!

How will it determine what is "illegal"?

Via the Debt Truth Committee.

Simples!

Greece Pays On Time

Confirmed: #Greece has forwarded €448ml repayment to #IMF.

— Yannis Koutsomitis (@YanniKouts) April 9, 2015

Greek Government Is Stupid

Sigmar Gabriel German Economy Minister and Vice chancellor has called Greece's Euro278BN war reparations demand "stupid".

Quite so!

Not only will Germany not pay it, but the demand has wasted/destroyed what political capital, time and sympathy others may have for Greece.

Thus it is not not just the demand that is "stupid", but the Greek government as well.

Tsipras In Moscow

Greece has not asked #Russia for aid, Greek official says #theEuropeanUnion #greece http://t.co/RwDb8JS14d pic.twitter.com/q09uTiefik

— Trending Greece News (@greekolizer) April 8, 2015

The only reason that Greece hasn't asked Russia for aid, is because Russia has already offered loans etc.

Germany Rejects Greece's Reparations Demand

Greece demands €279bn from Germany in Nazi war reparations | via @Telegraph http://t.co/h0FHFzqih5

— Allister Heath (@AllisterHeath) April 7, 2015

It goes without saying that Germany has rejected this.

Mr Tsipras Goes To Moscow

Tsipras to Moscow today, meeting Putin tmrw. Russia ready to give Greece cheaper gas, loans, wants “Greek assets” in exchange - @kommersant.
— Tom Parfitt (@parfitt_tom) April 7, 2015

Greece is now playing its last hand, designed to try to force the Troika's hand.

It won't work!

Varoufakis Speaks

Varoufakis: The solution for the Greek economy should be found within #EU's framework http://t.co/expDmAX67W /via @naftemporikigr #Greece
— Yannis Koutsomitis (@YanniKouts) April 6, 2015

"should be found"..lest we ask Russia!

Varoufakis To Meet Lagarde

#Greece StateMin Flambouràris says Varoufakis to ask Lagarde to agree on postponement of pensions & labor reforms to June talks ~@skaigr

— Yannis Koutsomitis (@YanniKouts) April 5, 2015

@YanniKouts and pay them with money from...?

— Evangelos (@Evangelos2012) April 5, 2015

Shut The Door Behind You Greece

All sorts of tough talk coming out of Athens as standoff with Eurozone creditors worsens: not paying back IMF, nationalising banks ...

— Andrew Neil (@afneil) April 3, 2015

Varoufakis Plays The Blame Game

Varoufakis blames the 'Institutions' for leaks of reform proposals. "Citizens' trust is undermined by such actions" http://t.co/SNcfSvP01v
— Yannis Koutsomitis (@YanniKouts) April 2, 2015

Leaked or not, it doesn't detract from the fact that the Troika has rejected the list of reforms as being inadequate and woolly.

Greece Is Overoptimistic

#Greece | General Accounting Office notifies Gov't cash runs out May 15 http://t.co/OhDhBjiNGn /via @EFSYNTAKTON
— Yannis Koutsomitis (@YanniKouts) April 1, 2015

I think that Greece is being way too overoptimistic, it will most likely run out of money before the end of April.