False Flag Op In Greece

Piraeus Bank management has contacted Stratfor and categorically denies problems reported at Piraeus banks in Athens. http://t.co/8KizHn13C4

— Stratfor (@Stratfor) February 27, 2015

The question is who tipped off Stratfor with the misleading story in the first place, and why did they want to start a bank run?

Germany Votes Ja!

*GERMAN BUNDESTAG VOTES 542 IN FAVOR OF EXTENSION; 32 REJECT (via @markets)

— Fabrizio Goria (@FGoria) February 27, 2015

Nein Nein Nein!

"I wouldn't buy an old car from Varoufakis or Tsipras, therefore I vote Nein! to Greek aid" - Willsch, CDU #Bundestag

— *Russian Market (@russian_market) February 27, 2015

Schaeuble Gives Greeks Rope To Hang Themselves - Germany's Cunning Stunt

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble urges parliament to approve extension of Greece's bailout - @Reuters http://t.co/KiJkyR4cby

— Breaking News (@BreakingNews) February 27, 2015

Thus Schaeuble has ensured that Greece will exit the Eurozone of its own accord, as and when it defaults and fails to fulfil its side of the agreement, ensuring that Germany will not be blamed.

Cunning eh?

Lagarde's Greek List

Here is a link to a list of 2,059 names of Greek citizens that have bank accounts with HSBC’s branch in Geneva, Switzerland.

Swiss Wait For Greek Action On Stashed Billions

As per Swissinfo:

"It’s estimated that billions of francs have been stashed in Swiss bank accounts by Greeks looking to evade taxes at home. The Greek government promised to take vigorous action against such moves, but Switzerland says the ball is still in their court."

Tax evasion is part of the Greek psyche, fat chance anything will happen on this!

Greece Admits Problem To Repay Debt

Varoufakis admits Greece will 'have problems in making debt payments' - http://t.co/4aGplvZh3t pic.twitter.com/gyQnxKHskv

— enikos_en (@enikos_en) February 26, 2015

Wheels Coming Off Greece's Reform Wagon

Been in Greek parliament for hours. Total storm going on at Syriza's revolutionary caucus. Left going wild. People charging around. Plots
— A Evans-Pritchard (@AmbroseEP) February 25, 2015

Who Wrote The Greek Reform Letter?

Step forward European Commission (ECFIN) bureaucrat Declan Costello and take a bow!

Coming Soon - The Third Greek Bailout!

Rheinische Post quotes unnamed German officials who say 3rd prog for Greece in summer will be worth at least €20bn: http://t.co/hdYRIi6f2l

— Open Europe (@OpenEurope) February 25, 2015

Troika Kyboshes Greek Reforms

Despite the fact that the European Commission in effect wrote the Greek letter outlining its proposed reforms, it seems that the Troika in the shape of the ECB and IMF are not yet on board.

The Troika has warned that Greece will have to do more if it is to be granted a €7.2bn bail-out extension before the end of the month.

Christine Lagarde, the director of the IMF, is quoted by the Telegraph warning that the Greek plan lacked “clear assurances that the government intends to undertake the reforms envisaged in the memorandum on economic and financial policies”.

The IMF still requires “clear commitments” on pensions, VAT, privatisation and labour reforms.

“We consider such commitments and undertakings to be critical for Greece’s ability to meet the basic objectives of its fund-supported programme.”

The ECB also voiced its lack of support for the reforms, as per Mario Draghi:

"We note that the commitments outlined by the authorities differ from existing programme commitments in a number of areas.

In such cases, we will have to assess whether measures are replaced with measures of equal or better quality in terms of achieving the objectives of the programme."

This hard nosed stance should come as no surprise, given that the letter from Greece contained no KPI's and was in effect a wish list of vague assurances.

Coming soon, capital controls!

Greek Conference Call

DIJSSELBLOEM: CONFERENCE CALL ON GREECE AT 14.00 THIS AFTERNOON

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 24, 2015

Varoufakis's Letter To Dijsselbloem

Here is a link to the text of Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis's letter to Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem outlining Greece's proposed reforms.

Good luck with achieving all of that within the next four months!

Greece Finally Submits List

DIJSSELBLOEM SAYS GREEK REFORM LIST RECEIVED YESTERDAY EVENING

— Jonathan Ferro (@FerroTV) February 24, 2015

DIJSSELBLOEM SAYS GREEK REFORM LIST ARRIVED `JUST IN TIME'

— Jonathan Ferro (@FerroTV) February 24, 2015

*GERMAN LAWMAKERS TO VOTE ON GREECE FRIDAY, GROSSE-BROEMER SAYS

— lemasabachthani (@lemasabachthani) February 24, 2015

.@EU_Commission rules #Greece list "sufficiently comprehensive", but #IMF & @ecb yet to decide. Both on "same wavelength" tho, offial sez

— Peter Spiegel (@SpiegelPeter) February 24, 2015

The Greek Tragedy Turns To Farce

Yet another twist in the ongoing Greek soap opera RT @FerroTV: EU COMMISSION HASN’T RECEIVED GREEK LIST YET, SPOKESWOMAN SAYS

— Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky) February 23, 2015

.@YanniKouts @minefornothing We have not received a list. Deadline is close of business tonight. We are in talks with #Greek authorities.

— Mina Andreeva (@Mina_Andreeva) February 23, 2015

GERMANY HASN’T RECEIVED LIST OF GREEK PROPOSALS YET: JAEGER

— Jonathan Ferro (@FerroTV) February 23, 2015

Greece Teeters on The Edge

Today Greece has to acquire the sign off of its creditors on its financial reforms, if it wishes to have the four month "breathing space" agreed to on Friday.

Irrespective of whether it obtains a sign off, Greece is on the verge of financial collapse and will, most likely, have to impose capital controls.

ICYMI: Greek bank deposit outflows last week ~€3B vs ~€2B week before, at which rate 8 weeks collateral left vs 14 a week ago -JP Morgan

— Jamie McGeever (@ReutersJamie) February 22, 2015

ICYMI: Greek bank deposit outflow this year now around €25B, reckons JP Morgan. Estimates are up to and include last week, so pre-agreement.

— Jamie McGeever (@ReutersJamie) February 22, 2015

The Greek "Agreement"

The Eurogroup has given Greece until Monday to come up with a set of budgetary measures that will allow a successful signing off of the 4 month extension agreed yesterday.

The Troika still exists, and will exercise oversight. However, it will no longer be officially called the Troika.

The Greek government, in addition to coming up with budget measures that satisfy the Troika, will have to sell this to its people/coalition partners.

At best this has bought Greece and the Eurozone 4 months. In June everyone will have to go through the whole exercise again. However, before then it is likely that Greece will have left the Eurozone (either willingly, or because its financial system has collapsed).

In the meantime it is highly likely that capital controls will be imposed, probably over this weekend.

Greek Bank Holiday This Monday

!! RT @LorcanRK Bank holiday in Greece on Monday.

— Chris Adams (@chrisadamsmkts) February 20, 2015

Fortunately for Greece, in view of its imminent exit from the Eurozone, it would appear that it has a bank holiday this Monday.

This should give the government enough time to impose capital controls and cash limits on withdrawals from atms etc, without utter chaos ensuing.

Greece To Be Allowed To Exit

GERMAN-LED BLOC WILLING TO LET GREECE LEAVE EURO, SCICLUNA SAYS

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 20, 2015

Eurogroup Meeting Rescheduled

Start #Eurogroup rescheduled to 16.30. Very brief statement president Dijsselbloem somewhere around 15.00 at VIP entrance.

— Jeroen Dijsselbloem (@J_Dijsselbloem) February 20, 2015

Grexit Headlines, Trial Balloons and Market Volatility

As per Zerohedge:

"...the biggest source of revenue for Reuters is not reporting the news but FX trading."

Think about it!

Another Eurogroup Meeting Next Week

Those of you who are naive enough to believe that today is D Day for a conclusion as to whether Greece will exit the Eurozone, or be bunged another few billion Euros, will be sorely disappointed.

Today will, at best, see members of the Eurogroup saying that "some progress may have been made" and that another meeting will be needed next week.

However, it is not all bad news, those individuals who make money out of market volatility will be earning fortunes as the markets rise and fall as every trial balloon is launched across the headlines.

Greek Capital Controls Needed

Irrespective of the outcome of today's talks about talks at the Eurogroup meeting, capital controls will most assuredly be needs in Greece in the next few days.

* Greek bank deposit outflows topped 1 bln Euros over past two days amid jitters over upcoming three-day weekend-banking sources - RTRS
— Fabrizio Goria (@FGoria) February 20, 2015

Germany Rejects Greece's Request

The balloons are being launched thick and fast.

The latest headlines are that Germany has rejected the Greek request for an extension, thus killing the brief rally in the markets that the earlier Greek balloon was designed to stimulate.

Has Greece Folded?

#Greece bailout extension document seen by @reutersJanS shows Athens accepting #EU terms, including troika monitoring, concluding bailout

— Alastair Macdonald (@macdonaldrtr) February 19, 2015

Does this mean that Greece has folded, or will there be more trial balloons in the coming hours before tomorrow's Eurogoup?

Another Eurogroup Meeting

There will be a Eurogroup meeting on this Friday in Brussels at 15.00 local time to discuss the Greek request for extension.

Cue unsupportable rallies of stocks based on trial balloons released by various Eurogroup members.

Greece Asks for 6 Month Extension

Received Greek request for six months extension.
— Jeroen Dijsselbloem (@J_Dijsselbloem) February 19, 2015

Terms and conditions of Greek request?

Greece To Ask For Loan

As per Capital.gr:

"Greece is expected to submit today a request for a 6-month extension of its current loan agreement i.e. not the current bailout programme, along the lines of the so-called Moscovici draft, which was initially presented to the Greek FinMin on Monday (reportedly having also the support of EC’s President Mr. Juncker) but later withdrawn and replaced with another document that the Greek FinMin denied to sign.

In this original draft, the exact phrasing was: “The above forms a basis for an extension of the current loan agreement, which could take the form of a [four-month] intermediate programme, as a transitional stage to a new contract for growth for Greece, that will be deliberated and concluded during this period”.

The first reaction of Berlin was negative with FinMin Schaeuble saying that there is no loan agreement with Greece but a bailout programme and the issue is whether the programme will be concluded or not.

Greece is willing to agree to a moratorium on any steps that could affect the country’s fiscal targets and is ready to discuss other measures but is not willing to adopt the terms of the existing bailout programme. In other words, the request for the extension is designed to be disengaged from the obligation of the current bailout programme as the Greek government already announced yesterday a series of social reform measures which will be tabled to the parliament tomorrow.

The proposal is due to be sent to Eurogroup chief Mr. Dijsselbloem today and he will then decide if it merits calling an extraordinary Eurogroup on Friday, 20 February.

Greece΄s government confirmed it would ask on Wednesday for an extension to its loan agreement with the euro zone, which it distinguishes from its full bailout program.

"Let΄s wait today for the request for an extension of the loan contract to be submitted by Finance Minister (Yanis) Varoufakis," government spokesman Gabriel Sakellaridis told Greece΄s Antenna TV."

Let's see if this has legs or not!

Some in the media are claiming that Greece has "blinked first".

Nonsense!

The Greeks are asking for money but they are not offering to agree to any of the conditions set by the Eurozone wrt lending more money.

Irrespective of whether this headline balloon gains any real traction, Greece is running out of money and will have to impose capital controls.

Eurozone Taxpayers Defrauded By Greek Bailouts

Unsurprisingly yesterday's Eurogroup meeting ended in fractious failure, with the Greek side leaking the proposed draft agreement put forward by Greece's creditors which Greece rejected absolutely.

Like it or not there was no chance of an agreement, given that Greece is now being led by a Communist, Trotskyist, Nazi coalition.

Add to that the fact that Greece hasn't got a cat's chance in hell of paying back its debt, or even servicing it, and it is clear to one and all that no viable agreement can ever be negotiated.

The money is gone, and the taxpayers of the Eurozone have been royally screwed by their governments (who claimed that the bailouts were viable).

A new "deadline" of this Friday has been set. Even if an "agreement" is reached, I can guarantee that it will not be viable; and that the taxpayers of the Eurozone will once again be asked to roll over and divi up more money to be thrown into the financial blackhole that is Greece.

Like it or not, Greece is going to leave the Euro; whether it is now or in a a few months time.

The Eurogroup Clusterfuck

Unsurprisingly there has been no deal agreed at the Eurogroup meeting wrt "solving" the Greek crisis.

Indeed, the meeting was such a clusterfuck that the participants couldn't even agree on a joint statement; hence none was released.

However, The Greek government issued its own statement (as per Zerohedge):

“At this euro group there has been no agreement.”

“An extension of the memorandum cannot be accepted. Negotiations will continue with the goal [of achieving[ a mutually beneficial agreement.”

Greece Welcomes The Bear's Embrace

Ahead of today's Eurogroup meeting, wherein Greece will not be offered an olive branch, by happenstance Greece's Foreign Minister Nikolaos Kotziasis is in Moscow cosying up to the Russian bear and looking for money.

Whether or not he succeeds in finding a Russian backer, Greece's actions and pronouncements on the subject of changing the terms of the bailout have pissed everyone off and ensured that whatever the outcome Greece (a member of Nato) will be treated as a pariah nation by all and sundry in the West.

Given that the newly elected government of Greece is made up of Communists, Marxists and Nazis it is hardly surprising it has come to this state of affairs. The Greek people have elected a government that has turned the country into a pariah state. It is time to lance the boil and expunge Greece from the Eurozone.

Europe Fears Grexit Into Arms of Bear or Panda

Further to my earlier article today about the US fearing a Grexit to Russia. It seems the Eurozone is shitting itself over such a move, combined with a possibility of Greece cosying up with the Chinese.

Hence the Eurozone appears to be caving in over Greece's brinkmanship.

That is until the next next headline anyway!

Whatever the outcome, the Eurozone will never forgive Greece for this.

US Frets About Grexit Into Arms of a Bear

As the ongoing Greek tragedy nears its logical conclusion (capitulation by Syriza or Grexit), the USA is becoming increasingly worried about the consequences of a Grexit.

President Obama has pushed the Eurozone to "lighten up" on Greece, noting that there has to be a plan for growth if Greece is ever to pay down its debts and dig itself out of its own self constructed hole.

Senator Bernard Sanders has gone one better, and suggested that the Fed bail Greece out.

Whilst the concern of the US for the welfare of Greece and the Euro may appear to be altruistic, not all may be as it seems.

The US knows that Russia is waiting in the wings to use this crisis to her advantage. Loans offered by Russia to Greece could be made in exchange for the rights to set up bases etc in the area. In other words Russia would use Greek as a pivot into Europe, something the that US has sleepless nights about.

Grexit Looming

Prime Minister held meeting with Treasury and Bank of England to plan for and protect UK from possible Greek exit from euro, I have learned
— Robert Peston (@Peston) February 9, 2015

It should come as no surprise to anyone that Greece is likely to exit the Euro.

Prime Minister Alexis Tsiprasis is sticking to his commitment not to accept an extension of the bailout, but instead to seek a bridging loan until June. He also insists all election pledges will be adhered to and, for good measure, wants to pursue war reparations against Germany.

All in all he has lit the blue touch paper.

As such the final touches to plans prepared by banks, countries and other interested parties for Grexit are now being made. Once finalised Greece will be allowed to self implode and leave the Eurozone of its own free will; ie no one will be lamed for pushing it out.

No surprises there at all!

In the meantime, it is likely in the dying days of Greece's membership of the eurozone it will run out of cash and impose capital controls.

Schaeuble Varoufakis Meeting Summarised In One Photo

Source Zerohedge

ECB Ups The Ante on Greece

The European Central Bank has announced that it it restricting Greek access to its direct liquidity lines, citing concerns about the country’s commitment to existing bailout pledges. This means that Greek sovereign debt can no longer be used as collateral for lines of credit. Greek lenders must now apply for funding from their national central bank at higher rates.

The ECB is quoted by Bloomberg:

“The ECB today decided to lift the waiver affecting marketable debt instruments issued or fully guaranteed by the Hellenic Republic.

The Governing Council decision is based on the fact that it is currently not possible to assume a successful conclusion of the program review and is in line with existing Eurosystem rules.” 

The Greek government is spinning the line that the ECB action puts pressure on the Eurogroup to quickly strike "a mutually beneficial deal".

This is either naive, or disingenuous. The ECB action is designed solely to pressure Greece to decide as to whether it wishes to honour its debts or leave the Euro.

When Is A Default Not A Default?

When is a default not a default?

When it's a distressed debt exchange under the pseudonym of "smart debt engineering.

The Greek Finance Minister Varoufakis has proposed a debt swap wherein loans from the EU bailout would be replaced by GDP-linked bonds. Money owed to the ECB would be converted into “perpetual bonds”.

Whilst this sounds all very reasonable in theory, if the ECB et al were to agree to it, it would nonetheless represent a "notifiable event" and a breach of the conditions of the bailout; ie Greece will have defaulted.

This despite the fact that Greece is trying to spin the line that it isn't.

Greece Changes Its Tune

As per Reuters, late on Monday, Greek Finance Minister Varoufakis issued a statement saying that earlier comments of his to financial investors had been misinterpreted (ie the new Greek government is backtracking on its statements of last week).

As such the new economic plan is for Greece to swap bonds for growth linked debt or perpetual bonds. This is of course subject to the plan being costed and agreed by Germany et al. 

Next week, doubtless there will be another plan on the table as reality finally dawns that there is no way out of this mess without either paying down the debt or leaving the Euro.

Greece Goes Cold Turkey

Yanis Varoufakis, the Greek finance minister, will meet Chancellor George Osborne in London today.

Doubtless the subject of Greece's debt will come up in conversation.

Varoufakis claims that Greece will honour its debts, but repayment of these debts is subject to Greece's economy growing. 

So far so plausible.

However, he also went on to say that Greece will not take on new debt and will go "cold turkey" wrt its debt addiction.

The trouble with this is that, like it or not, Greek banks are currently underpinned by ECB credit lines that come to and end this month. In order for the banks to survive they will need continued lines of credit.

Given that the ECB are saying that no new lines will be given if Greece reneges on its debt repayments, and Varoufakis is saying that he will take on no new debt, how are the banks and the Greek economy meant to survive beyond 28 February?