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Wednesday, August 15, 2012

#Grexit Next Month?

I see that with the depressing inevitability of the return of an unloved season, there is renewed speculation (which frankly has never gone away) that Greece will exit the Eurozone possibly as early as next month.

CNBC quote Paul Day, Chief Strategist, at Market Securities:
It’s a question of when, not if. 

Next month there is the ratification of the ESM [European Stability Mechanism] in Germany and you may well see a situation where Greece leaves the euro, the ESM is ratified and Spain and Italy then go in and ask for the money. 

There is a feeling that time is running out.
He is of course correct, Greece will exit the Euro. The trouble is no one can know for sure when. As I have noted before, as and when it happens, it will have to take the markets and the citizens of Greece "by surprise".

When Greece leaves the Euro there will be, at the very least, the following "events":

- an imposition of capital and border controls,
- atms will run out of cash
- foreign banks and companies will treat Greece as a "plague ship", and stop all financial dealings in the short-term
- credit cards will not be accepted by many establishments (in fact this is already the case)
- there will be issues of street and civil disorder to contend with
- airports will be full, as foreigners rush to leave

Will Greece leave next month?

I don't know.

However, pressure is mounting; eg Greece is seeking a two year extension to its austerity program.

It is just a matter of time.

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