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Thursday, February 23, 2012

European Commission Forecast Worse Than Worthless

The European Commission, in its February 2012 forecast, has admitted that its November 2011 forecast for the Greek economy is in fact wrong.

"In 2011, economic activity was much weaker than anticipated in the autumn forecast."

Real output in Greece is expected to shrink by 4.3% compared with the November forecast of around 2.6%.

"Greece, Portugal and Spain account for 95% of the rise in unemployment in the EU since late 2010".

Unfortunately, the "success" of the Greek bailout "plan" rests on the reliability of the Commission's eight year forecast for Greece (which states that by 2014 Greece will return to growth). However, as the Commission has admitted, the forecast isn't worth the paper it is printed on.

"Greater spillovers from potential worsening conditions in Greece, due to the large exposure of the financial sector, are substantial."

Here is the Commission's February forecast, which will doubtless be out of date and worthless by mid year!

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