If You Fuck With The Hospitality Sector, You Fuck With GDP!

More importantly, almost all the real GDP growth during Q3 came from hospitality - there is no economic recovery without hospitality and that is why it is so important to ensure industry properly supported not just now but through a longer slower recovery post Omicron https://t.co/3OALcrINR3

— Kate Nicholls (@UKHospKate) December 22, 2021

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Sunak's Hospitality Support Package

The Government support package will be a Billion pound.

🔺Grants up to 6k per business
🔺30 m culture package.
🔺Statutory sick pay

NO mention of Furlough.
Does that suggest that Lockdown off the table?

Also,Hospitality businesses couldn’t afford to pay staff if closed inside

— Adam Brooks (@EssexPR) December 21, 2021

To be announced today at 13:00

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Interest Rates Raised to 0.25%

Bank of England raises interest rates from 0.1% to 0.25%.

The Bank of England’s monetary policy committee (MPC) of nine members voted eight to one in favour of increasing interest rates to 0.25% from 0.1%.

The central bank said all committee members other than Silvana Tenreyro supported the increase, as inflation continues to soar beyond its target rate.

Meanwhile, the central bank will also keep up its £895 billion quantitative easing programme after a unanimous vote in favour.

In my view this is a mistake, given that the hospitality sector is on its knees and that Omicron has not yet peaked.

The economy could have run hot until May/June next year. 

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'Twas The Hour Before Rate Announcement

Outside the ⁦@bankofengland⁩ ahead of the interest rate announcement. Streets v empty. Feels quite reminiscent of March 2020 pic.twitter.com/TOh36aHYnk

— Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky) December 16, 2021

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Inflation Hits 5.1% - Let It Run Hot

The cost of living surged by 5.1% in the 12 months to November, up from 4.2% the month before, and its highest level since September 2011.

Higher transport and energy costs drove the rise, which was above forecasts of a 4.7% increase, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

I am relaxed about letting it run hot until May or June. Also, given omicron imminent shutdown it is nigh on impossible for the MPC to raise rates. 

I could of course be wrong though, this is economics though not the accurate science of covid models!

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Advice To NatWest

When a client deposits large sums of money in bin bags, that really ought to set the alarm bells ringing!

As per BBC:

NatWest has been fined £265m after admitting it failed to prevent money-laundering of nearly £400m by one firm.

A gold trading business suspected of money-laundering deposited £700,000 in cash into one NatWest branch in black bin bags, a court heard on Monday.

A criminal gang deposited huge sums of cash across about 50 branches, prosecutors for the UK's financial watchdog said.

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Omicron To Delay Rate Rise

BOE's Saunders: Omicron is key consideration for Dec decision #gbp

— Michael Hewson 🇬🇧 (@mhewson_CMC) December 3, 2021

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Slow Hand Clap of Derision for CEO of Moderna - Market Manipulation

Stéphane Bancel, the head of Moderna, has said that Covid-19 jabs were unlikely to be as effective against the variant.

Unsurprisingly the FTSE et al all fell dramatically.

Well done Stéphane!

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Andrew Bailey's Murky Job

 

The Bank of England governor, Andrew Bailey, has said the difference between providing commentary on the state of the economy and what the central bank is likely to do with interest rates is hard to define.

“The boundary between a commentary and guidance is quite murky, actually, when you think about the words we use,”

The Bank shocked financial markets this month when it kept interest rates on hold at their pandemic lows. Investors had interpreted remarks made by Bailey in October as a signal that rates would rise at the November meeting of the monetary policy committee.

The next decision is due to be announced on December 16.

Answering questions, Bailey said there were three forms of forward guidance and the one that was currently in use was “not so much forward guidance as a reminder of where we are”.

He then went on to blame his predecessor for the confusion.

He said the system put in place by his predecessor, Mark Carney, “is pretty hazardous [and] more hazardous in a more uncertain world”. In 2013, Carney told markets that the Bank would consider raising interest rates when unemployment fell to 7 per cent.

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Bulb Goes Bust

 

Bulb Energy, which has 1.7 million customers, has announced that the firm will be put into administration.

It is the largest UK energy company to face difficulties following a sharp rise in wholesale gas prices this year.

Bulb will become the first energy company to be placed into "special administration", where it is run by the government through the regulator Ofgem.

"Customers of Bulb do not need to worry - Bulb will continue to operate as normal," Ofgem said.

"Customers will see no disruption to their supply and their account and tariff will continue as normal. Bulb staff will still be available to answer calls and queries."

The special administration measure is only used if Ofgem is unable to find another company to take over an energy firm's customers. The regulator said it was planning to apply to a court to appoint an administrator who will run the company.

Bulb said energy supplies were "secure and all credit balances are protected".

Bulb is the UK's seventh biggest energy company and has 1,000 staff. It has been trying to shore up its finances for several weeks.

Ofgem set up the Special Administrator Regime (SAR) for when an energy company goes bust but is too big to have its customers transferred to another firm.

What can I do if my energy supplier goes bust?

The aim of the regime is to stop financial failure spreading across the industry.

Under the SAR scheme, the government can make grants and loans to the company while its future is sorted out.

It could come in the shape of a takeover by another company, selling parts of its business or customers being transferred to another firm.

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Monetary Policy Explained

BoE's Haskel smashing the objective of making monetary policy more transparent accessible for the general public 😂$GBP pic.twitter.com/VtU1Do0Lct

— Viraj Patel (@VPatelFX) November 23, 2021

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Kensington Launches 40 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage

Kensington Mortgages is to launch fixed-rate mortgages of up to 40 years on Tuesday in what will be one of the first products of its kind in the UK market. The lender has partnered with Rothesay, the UK’s largest pensions insurance specialist which has more than £60bn in assets, to finance the longer-dated mortgages. Its “Flexi Fixed for Term” mortgages will allow borrowers to fix the rate paid on their mortgage for the full term of the loan — anywhere between 11 and 40 years.

Mark Arnold, chief executive at Kensington Mortgages, said that while many homeowners had never known anything but ultra-low interest rates, the environment was likely to change. 

“Nothing lasts forever and it looks very likely that we will see a succession of interest rate hikes and we may begin to slowly approach again an historical average,” he added. “A fixed-for-term mortgage — already very popular in some parts of continental Europe — is likely to become increasingly attractive in a rate-rising environment.” 

Rates will depend on the fixed term chosen and amount borrowed. A 95 per cent loan to value mortgage will be available for new purchases and 85 per cent LTV for remortgage. 

 For the longest-dated mortgages of 35 years and 40 years, rates will start at 3.16 per cent and 3.34 per cent respectively, at a 60 per cent LTV. Rates at the shorter end of mortgage terms will be lower — starting at 2.83 per cent for a 15-year product at the same LTV. For 25 and 30-year terms, rates will be available from 2.85 per cent and 2.90 per cent respectively. 

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£96BN Rail Investment Confirmed

Transport Secretary Grant Shapps announces integrated rail plan, which he says will provide faster journeys and increased capacity "ten years sooner than previously planned"

HS2 "would not have reached East Midlands and the North until the early 2040s"https://t.co/OlIYXeNnIk pic.twitter.com/6noF7unFRZ

— BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) November 18, 2021

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RPI Hits 6%

And there we have it:

CPI 4.2%
RPI 6%
RPIx 6.1%

There was no doubt that this was coming.

Industrial natural gas up over 100% from a year ago. Card up over 50%. Electricity c40-50% increases.

Very challenging period ahead for businesses and consumers. https://t.co/SqGZGmUvbY

— Chris Soley (@chrissoley) November 17, 2021

It is mainly due to higher fuel and energy prices but the cost of second-hand cars and eating out also rose, the Office for National Statistics said.

Needless to say the media and others are fulminating at the numbers, and are wondering if Bailey and the MPC will finally follow through on his threats to raise rates (even though he doesn't think they will have any effect).

Given that these costs are related to the reopening of global economic activity, in my view we can allow the economy to run hot for the next few months without the need to raise rates.

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Amazon Calls Visa's Bluff

 

Visa is to raise interchange fees on cross-border transactions between the UK and EU.

The move comes as Visa faces an investigation by the US Justice Department over possible anticompetitive practices in debit card transaction routing. 

Prior to Brexit, UK merchants and card holders benefited from a 0.3% cap on credit card interchange fees imposed by the European Commission.

As from October Visa will increase the fees for online and over-the-phone purchases to 1.5%. The fee for debit card payments is also set to rise from 0.2% to 1.15%.

In response, Amazon has called Visa's bluff and has written to its customers telling them it will no longer accept Visa credit card payments (Visa debit cards will still be allowed) as from 19 January 2022. This gives Visa the opportunity to reflect on its decision.

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