IMF Predicts 7% Growth for UK

Sky reports that Britain's economy will grow faster than any major economy in Europe as it rebounds from the COVID-19 recession and emerges from lockdown, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted.

In the latest update to its World Economic Outlook, the IMF forecast that the UK economy would grow by 7% this year; the strongest year for economic growth since comparable records began following the Second World War.

The UK growth rate this year is stronger than Germany (3.6%), France (5.8%) and Italy (4.9%).

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China Screws With The Hang Seng

Futures Slide As Asian Stocks Plunge To 2021 Lows https://t.co/EVr5nVG9sS

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 27, 2021

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UK Growth Fastest Since The War

Forecasts published by EY Item Club predict that the UK economy will grow 7.6% this year, the fastest pace of expansion since 1941.

The recent burst in consumer spending triggered by the lifting of restrictions to curb the spread of the virus has prompted forecasters to up their expectations for output growth.

The firm also predicted that the UK economy is likely to recovery faster than other economies due to spending rising rapidly in the services industry, which the economy heavily relies on.

Martin Beck, senior economic advisor to the EY Item Club, is quoted by City AM: 

“Vaccines have played a key role in bringing forward the reopening of the economy and have been a key factor in the upgrades of the forecast throughout this year.

Compared to other economies, the UK is much more dependent on consumer spending on services, such as recreation and leisure activities, which meant that lockdowns had a greater economic impact here than elsewhere. Reopening these face-to-face parts of the economy means the UK should have a correspondingly faster recovery.”

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Don't Panic About Inflation Blip

BANK OF ENGLAND'S BROADBENT SAYS I’M NOT CONVINCED THAT THE CURRENT INFLATION IN RETAIL GOODS PRICES SHOULD IN AND OF ITSELF MEAN HIGHER INFLATION 18-24 MONTHS AHEAD, THE HORIZON MORE RELEVANT FOR MONETARY POLICY

— Michael Brown (@MrMBrown) July 22, 2021

 

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Tight Policy Isn't The Right Policy!

Haskel cementing his place as the most dovish mpc member

BANK OF ENGLAND'S HASKEL SAYS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, IN MY VIEW, TIGHT POLICY ISN’T THE RIGHT POLICY

— Michael Brown (@MrMBrown) July 19, 2021

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US Issues Risk Advisory for Hong Kong

*U.S. ISSUED ADVISORY ABOUT RISKS TO OPERATIONS IN HONG KONG
*U.S.: RISKS FACED IN CHINA INCREASINGLY PRESENT IN HONG KONG

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 16, 2021

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CPI Hits 2.5% - Driven by Used Car Prices

CPI hit 2.5% in June, pushed in a large part by used car prices which rose the most on record in the UK in June.

The cost of previously-owned vehicles rose 4.4% in June, the most since records began in 1996, and contributed to an unexpected 2.5% increase in consumer prices, the Office for National Statistics said this morning. The ONS said consumers were paying more to avoid trains and buses.

The demand for used cars is driven by a shortage of new cars, as a result of car production delays for new vehicles caused by a shortage in semiconductors sending prices surging.

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Question for Wetherspoons

 

The BBC reports the following:

Wetherspoons says it will have to put up the price of food in its pubs by around 40p a meal if a VAT cut for the hospitality industry is not extended.

The tax was slashed on food sold in pubs from 20% to 5% during the pandemic to help struggling businesses.

But it is set to return to normal levels, in stages, over the next year, rising to 12.5% in September 2021.

The chain, which has 860 pubs, said it would "make the entire hospitality industry less competitive".

The BBC has contacted the Treasury for a comment.

"It is an important principle of taxation that taxes should be fair and equitable," Wetherspoons said, adding that its own price rises would come in from September.

"One area of undoubted unfairness, which creates economic distortions, relates to VAT. Supermarkets pay zero VAT on food, but pubs and restaurants pay 20%, in normal circumstances."

My question to Wetherspoons is this, when the VAT rates were reduced did you pass that on to your customers via reduced prices?

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Blue Horseshoe Loves Morrisons

 

Apollo Global, a US investment firm is considering making a rival offer for Morrisons, days after the UK supermarket agreed to a £6.3bn ($8.7bn) takeover.

It is the third firm to show an interest in the UK chain in two months, fuelling speculation of a bidding war.

On Saturday, Morrisons accepted an offer by another US investment group led by the owner of Majestic Wine.

The takeover bid - led by US private equity firm Fortress Investment Group - is subject to shareholder approval, but the supermarket group's directors are recommending it is accepted.

Morrisons' shares are up 11% on the start of the day, and are trading at a three year high.

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Nissan Jobs Boost for Sunderland and Port Talbot

Nissan has announced a major £1BN expansion of electric vehicle production at its car plant in Sunderland which will create 1,650 new jobs.

The Japanese carmaker says it will build its new-generation all-electric model at the site. Its partner, Envision AESC, will also build a new electric battery plant.

Production of the new model will create 909 new jobs and more than 4,500 in its UK supply chain.

Other production locations have not yet been confirmed. More details about the new vehicle will be released closer to the car's launch date.

Envision's new gigafactory will eventually provide batteries to power up to 100,000 Nissan electric vehicles a year. It will create 750 new jobs and secure 300 existing roles.

It is hoped the new plant will operational in time for 2024, when the level of UK-made components in cars manufactured in the UK is required to start increasing, in line with the terms of the UK's trade deal with the EU.

The majority of Nissan's Sunderland-assembled cars are sold in the EU.

Around half the steel used in production at NMUK (Sunderland) comes from Port Talbot, this is therefore a big boost for Welsh steel too.

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