Thursday, June 20, 2024

Rates On Hold

Under normal circumstances, rates would have fallen today. However, the Bank of England has chosen to do nothing lest it be accused of interfering in the election.

Another reason why Sunak was idiotic to call the election now!

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Wednesday, June 19, 2024

Inflation Hits 2%


 

In May CPI fell to 2%. Under normal circumstances we would expect the Bank of England to reduce rates tomorrow. However, because we are in the middle of an election, the Bank may well put off any change until after the election in order to avoid being caught up in a political row.

This of course makes Sunak's decision to call an election, before the rate cut, completely barking!

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Thursday, June 13, 2024

Russian Bank Run Following US Sanctions

The US has broadened its sanctions on Russia, including a fresh crackdown on banks dealing with sanctioned entities.

It expands a December programme to target foreign banks deemed to be aiding Russia's war effort in Ukraine.

The US also placed sanctions on the Moscow stock exchange, leading to it halt trading in dollars and euros.

It also moved to try to restrict Russia's use of technology, including chips and software.

US President Joe Biden signed an executive order in December that imposed sanctions on banks dealing with about 1,200 individuals and companies deemed to be helping Russia's war machine.

Those measures, which expose banks to the risk of being cut off from the US financial system, have now been expanded to about 4,500 entities.

The US will also target on gold-laundering.

Peter Harrell, a former White House senior director for international economics, told the Reuters news agency that the US "is shifting towards something that begins to look like an effort to set up a global financial embargo on Russia".

As part of this effort, the US Treasury announced that it would impose sanctions on parts of Russia's financial system, including the Moscow Exchange, which is one of Russia's main stock exchanges.

The stock exchange, which is Russia's largest foreign exchange market, said the sanctions had forced it to stop trading in dollars and euros.

The US also focused on technology. Chips and other technology made in the US have been found in downed Russian equipment on Ukraine battlefields, including drones, radios, missiles and armoured vehicles.

As a result of these sanctions announced yesterday, there has be a major run on Russian banks, a fall in the Russian stock exchange and a fall in the Ruble.

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Tuesday, May 28, 2024

NatWest Outage


 

NatWest suffered a severe system outage this morning both online and on their app for several hours.

It seems to be up and running now.

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Wednesday, May 22, 2024

Inflation Falls To 2.3%



The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has stated that the UK inflation rate fell to 2.3% in the year to April 2024. This decline marks the lowest annual rate of price rises since July 2021 when it was at 2%. Here are the key points:

1. Energy Prices: The significant drop in inflation is primarily driven by cooling energy prices. Specifically, prices of electricity, gas, and other fuels fell by 27.1% in the year to April, which is the largest decrease since records began in 1989.

2. Core Inflation: Despite the overall decline, core inflation remains elevated. The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) rose by 3.8% in the 12 months to March 2024, unchanged from February. On a monthly basis, CPIH increased by 0.6% in March 2024, compared to a rise of 0.7% in March 2023.

3. Interest Rates: The drop in inflation could potentially bring the UK closer to the Bank of England's target of 2%. This development may impact interest rate decisions in the near future.

In summary, while overall inflation has eased due to energy price reductions, core inflation remains a concern. Keep an eye on how these figures evolve in the coming months! 

For more detailed information, you can refer to the official ONS report .

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Monday, May 13, 2024

Bank of England's Miserable Incompetence


 

In a recent turn of events, Jacob Rees-Mogg has accused the Bank of England of 'miserable incompetence' over its handling of inflation. This accusation comes amidst a backdrop of rising inflation rates and a growing concern over the Bank's strategies.

The Accusation

Rees-Mogg's criticism is primarily targeted at the Bank's failure to reduce inflation more quickly and its bond-selling strategy. He has accused the Bank of damaging the economy with its interest rate decisions and costing the taxpayer tens of billions of pounds by selling off government debt too quickly. This strategy, known as quantitative tightening (QT), is aimed at reducing the Bank's balance sheet.

The Fallout

The former business secretary's comments have stirred up controversy, especially as rightwing Tories prepare to renew their attacks on the Bank's independence¹. Rees-Mogg's criticism is particularly scathing, stating that the Bank's 'miserable incompetence allowed inflation to peak at almost six times its target rate'.

Furthermore, he has accused the Bank of demanding higher taxes due to its 'hopeless bond trading strategy. He even went as far as to compare the Bank's strategy to Nick Leeson's, who famously bankrupted the London-based bank, Barings.

The Response

The Bank of England has yet to respond to these accusations. However, this incident has highlighted the fractious relationship between the Bank and the right of the Tory party. This tension has been present since Liz Truss's short tenure in Downing Street, during which she considered sacking its top bosses¹.

The Future

As the situation unfolds, members of Conservative Way Forward, a Thatcherite group of Tory MPs, are preparing to launch a report that once more calls into question the Bank's independence. This report focuses on the losses made by the Bank's quantitative tightening policy.

In conclusion, Jacob Rees-Mogg's accusations have sparked a heated debate about the Bank of England's handling of inflation and its independence. As the political and economic landscape continues to evolve, it remains to be seen how this situation will unfold and what impact it will have on the UK's economy.

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Friday, May 10, 2024

GDP Growth Hits 0.6% - UK Out of Recession

UK Economy Bounces Back: A Look at Today's GDP Figures

The United Kingdom has officially exited its recession, according to the latest GDP figures. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reports that the UK economy grew by 0.6% in the first quarter of 2024, marking the end of a short, albeit impactful, economic downturn.

A Closer Look at the Numbers

The 0.6% growth rate exceeded expectations, signalling a faster-than-anticipated recovery. This figure represents the UK's strongest expansion in over two years³. The rebound was driven by a 0.7% growth in the services sector and a 0.8% increase in the production sector⁵. However, the construction sector saw a decline of 0.9%.

The Bigger Picture

While the latest GDP figures offer some better news, it's important to remember that the overall growth picture tells a different story¹. The UK economy had been in a technical recession, with activity falling in the third and fourth quarters of the previous year⁵. Despite this, the economy has shown resilience and adaptability in bouncing back.

Looking Ahead

The recent GDP growth is a positive sign for the UK economy, but it's not a guarantee of continued expansion. The government and businesses will need to continue their efforts to stimulate growth and navigate the post-recession landscape.

In conclusion, today's GDP figures are a testament to the resilience of the UK economy. While challenges undoubtedly remain, the UK has taken a significant step forward in its economic recovery. The hope is that this upward trend will continue, bringing more stability and prosperity to the nation.


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Tuesday, April 23, 2024

The Bank of England Is Teasing Us!


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Tuesday, April 09, 2024

DEI - The Destroyer of Equity and Innovation

The cult of DEI has wrecked another business, this time the DEI wrecking ball trashed John Lewis which for reasons best known to itself (ie DEI) hired Dane Sharon White a civil servant with no retail experience (in brief, she Didn't Earn It).

Having racked up losses of £234M she has left and been replaced by Jason Tarry, a man with 30 years experience in retail.

DEI is the kiss of death to business and organisations.


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Thursday, March 21, 2024

Bank of England Keeps Rates At 5.25%


In a widely anticipated move, the Bank of England (BoE) has decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25%. One vote for a cut and eight for unchanged. This decision comes despite recent fluctuations in inflation and the ongoing economic recovery in the UK.

Context of the Decision

The BoE's decision to maintain the current interest rate level comes in the wake of falling inflation. Inflation fell to 3.4% in February, down from 4% in January, marking the lowest rate since September 2021. Despite this decrease, the inflation rate remains above the BoE's target of 2%.

The decision also comes at a time when the UK economy is showing signs of recovery. The FTSE 100, a share index of the 100 companies listed on the London Stock Exchange with the highest market capitalization, has hit a 10-month high.

Implications of the Decision

The decision to hold interest rates steady has several implications. For borrowers, it means that the cost of borrowing will remain relatively high, potentially slowing down consumer spending and investment⁵. For savers, it means that they will continue to earn interest at the current rate.

The decision also signals the BoE's cautious approach towards managing inflation and supporting economic recovery. By keeping interest rates steady, the BoE is aiming to strike a balance between curbing inflation and fostering economic growth.

Looking Ahead

Looking ahead, the BoE's focus is not just on bringing inflation back to target but keeping it there in the longer term. Analysts predict that the BoE may start cutting rates from August this year. However, the exact timing will depend on a range of factors, including the trajectory of inflation and the pace of economic recovery.

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Wednesday, March 20, 2024

Inflation Falls To 3.4%


According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the UK's inflation rate has fallen to 3.4% vs 3.5% expected. This is the lowest annual rate of price rises in more than two years. The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) rose by 4.2% in the 12 months to January 2024.

What's Driving the Change?

The slower pace of food price rises helped push down inflation, along with soft drinks, restaurants, and hotels. However, this effect was partially offset by petrol prices and rental costs.

The Impact on Interest Rates

These latest inflation figures are particularly significant as they come just before the Bank of England's interest rate announcement. The Bank of England, which has a target rate of inflation of 2%, uses the latest figure when weighing up whether to raise or lower interest rates⁵.

The Political Response

The drop in inflation has sparked responses from both sides of the political spectrum. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has stated that the figures show the government's plan is working. On the other hand, Labour's Rachel Reeves has called for an election, stating that the country cannot afford another five years of a Conservative government.

Looking Ahead

While the drop in inflation is certainly good news, it's important to remember that this doesn't mean the cost of living is falling. Instead, it means that prices are rising less quickly than they were before. As such, the impact on households will vary depending on their specific circumstances.

In conclusion, while the latest inflation figures provide some cause for optimism, they also highlight the ongoing challenges facing the UK economy. It will be interesting to see how these figures influence policy decisions in the coming months.

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Wednesday, March 13, 2024

HP After Sales Service


 

I am in the process of communicating with the HP returns department about a faulty printer that I bought from them less than 3 weeks ago.

They have told me to print off the returns label.

How do I do that, given that my printer doesn't work?

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Thursday, March 07, 2024

The Budget - Key Points

 


Here are the key points from Jeremy Hunt's budget:

1. Tax Cuts: The Chancellor announced a 2p cut to the rate of National Insurance paid by employees.
 

2. Long-term Growth: The budget was set against the backdrop of the UK’s struggling economy, which slipped into a technical recession at the end of 2023.
 

3. Pensions and Wages: The cap on the amount workers can accumulate in pension savings over their lifetime before having to pay extra tax (currently £1.07m) is to be abolished. The tax-free yearly allowance for pension pot will rise from £40,000 to £60,000.
 

4. Fuel and Alcohol: Fuel duty is frozen, and the 5p cut to fuel duty on petrol and diesel, due to end in April, is kept for another year. Alcohol taxes will rise in line with inflation from August, with new reliefs for beer, cider, and wine sold in pubs.
 

5. Energy Bills and Nuclear Power: Government subsidies limiting typical household energy bills to £2,500 a year are extended for three months, until the end of June. There is a commitment to invest £20bn over the next two decades on low-carbon energy projects, with a focus on carbon capture and storage.
 

6. Childcare and Universal Credit: 30 hours of free childcare for working parents in England is expanded to cover one and two-year-olds, to be rolled out in stages from April 2024. Families on universal credit will receive childcare support up front instead of in arrears, with the £646-a-month per child cap raised to £951.
 

7. Back to Work Plans: There are new plans for fitness-to-work testing regime to qualify for health-related benefits, a new voluntary employment scheme for disabled people in England and Wales called Universal Support, and tougher requirements to look for work and increased job support for lead child carers on universal credit.

8. Government Debt, Inflation, and Economic Growth: The Office for Budget Responsibility predicts the UK will avoid recession in 2023, but the economy will shrink by 0.2%. Growth of 1.8% is predicted for next year, with 2.5% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026.


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Tuesday, March 05, 2024

Virgin Media Gouging Its Customers Dry!


 

The hapless customers of Virgin Media have been receiving letters and emails advising them of the forthcoming April price gouge.

Prices will go up by an eye-watering 8.8%  being: February's 4.9% RPI plus an additional (unwarranted) 3.9%.

They saw you coming!

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Net Zero Boosts China's Economy

 

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