Rent Controls Are Back

 

Riddle me this, 

Riddle me that,

How can a tribunal set market rent?

Looks like rent controls are back! What could go wrong with a tribunal setting rents according to a so-called “market rate”. https://t.co/ExJrAAO5uw

— Sam Bowman (@s8mb) September 12, 2024

 For tenants to have more affordable rents, you need more homes to rent ie you need more landlords.

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Growth Flatlines in June

 

UK GDP Figures: September 2024 Update

Today, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released the latest figures for the UK's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), providing a snapshot of the nation's economic health. Here’s a detailed look at what the numbers reveal and what they mean for the UK economy.

 Key Highlights

1. Quarterly Growth: The UK GDP increased by 0.6% in Q2 2024 (April to June), following a 0.7% rise in Q1 2024. This marks a steady growth trajectory, indicating resilience in the economy despite global uncertainties.

2. Annual Comparison: Compared to the same quarter last year, GDP grew by 0.9%. This year-on-year growth reflects a gradual recovery and stabilization post-pandemic.

3. Sector Performance:
   - Services Sector: The services sector, a significant contributor to the UK economy, grew by 0.8% in Q2 2024. This growth was widespread across various sub-sectors, highlighting robust consumer demand and business activity.
   - Production and Construction: Both the production and construction sectors saw a slight decline of 0.1% each. These minor contractions were offset by the strong performance in services.

4. Monthly Figures: For June 2024, the GDP showed no growth, following a 0.4% increase in May 2024. This stagnation in June could be attributed to various factors, including market adjustments and external economic pressures.

Analysis and Implications

The steady quarterly growth of 0.6% is a positive sign, suggesting that the UK economy is on a stable recovery path. The services sector continues to be the backbone of this growth, driven by consumer spending and business services. However, the slight declines in production and construction sectors indicate areas that may need targeted policy support to boost performance.

The annual growth of 0.9% is modest but encouraging, showing that the economy is gradually gaining momentum. This growth is crucial as it reflects the economy's ability to expand and adapt in a post-pandemic world.

The lack of growth in June 2024, while not alarming, serves as a reminder of the ongoing challenges and the need for continuous monitoring and adaptive economic policies. Factors such as inflation, interest rates, and global economic conditions will play pivotal roles in shaping future GDP trends.

Looking Ahead

As we move forward, it will be essential to focus on sustaining the growth in the services sector while addressing the challenges in production and construction. Policymakers and businesses must work together to create an environment conducive to growth, innovation, and resilience.

The next set of GDP figures will be eagerly awaited, as they will provide further insights into the trajectory of the UK economy. For now, the current data offers a cautiously optimistic outlook, with steady growth and areas for improvement.

It should be noted:

1 The GDP figures per head are less encouraging 2023 shows a fall of -0.7%.

2 Labour's policy of talking down the economy and talking up tax rises will negative impact growth.

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GB Energy - The Fake Energy Company That Doesn't Produce Any Energy!

 

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The Circle of Life - Base Rates Down Mortgage Rates Up!

Riddle me this Batman:

The Bank of England base rate has gone down ⬇️.

Standard variable rates, against which all borrowers (except those on full term fixed rates) are tested, have gone UP ⬆️ across the board.

Buying activity is up, no doubt, but the amount you can borrow… pic.twitter.com/aIzwSKuU5y

— Moving Home with Charlie (@moving_charlie) September 5, 2024

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Labour Is Killing Economic Confidence and The Economy

 

Fears of an autumn tax raid and a radical strengthening of workers’ rights have triggered a collapse in confidence among business leaders. 

The Institute of Directors’ (IoD’s) economic confidence index plunged from a three-year high of +7 in July to -12 in August. The IoD, which is nicknamed the “bosses’ union”, represents 20,000 business leaders across the country, ranging from entrepreneurial small ventures to major corporations.

Anna Leach, chief economist at the IoD, said the slump in confidence among members was driven by “newsflow in recent weeks on employment rights and autumn tax rises”.

As confidence falls, so will investment and growth opportunities.

Business investment intentions for the year ahead dropped 14 points, the sharpest decline since the beginning of the pandemic lockdowns. Headcount expectations also dropped 14 points, from +24 to +10, the sharpest fall since the first pandemic lockdown.

Labour's much vaunted desire to grow the economy has been exposed as empty rhetoric!

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GB Energy - Fake Jobs for a Fake Company and You Can Work From Home

 

HIRING FOR GB ENERGY BEGINS 🤢

Labour's latest quango GB Energy has started hiring with 13 jobs being advertised all for £53,985 - that's £688,805 in taxpayer-funded salaries! 💷

Will GB Energy just be a taxpayer-funded jolly for bureaucrats? 🤔https://t.co/lQ7rvaAMHK

— TaxPayers' Alliance (@the_tpa) August 28, 2024

 

Taking the piss or what?

This is why energy bills will never come down!

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Mamod To Close After 88 Years Because of Anti Terror Rules

 

A model steam train firm has ceased production after 88 years because of anti-terror “red tape” banning a material used in its batteries.

Mamod, the British firm founded in 1936, has closed down production in its factory because of declining sales, spiralling costs and a ban on hexamine fuel tablets used to power the engines of its models.

Adrian Lockrey, 52, who owns Mamod, said he begged government counter-terrorism officials not to impose the blanket ban on hexamine but the prohibition came into force in February.

Mr Lockrey told the Mail: “It is red tape. Basically, we were doing £50,000 a month, every month, and then come February our sales dropped 50 per cent basically overnight.

“We ended up getting through to counter-terrorism in London and the woman just said, ‘well, you can’t sell it’.”

He added:

 “I said it was like me selling a torch without batteries. It was a really big kick. Apparently it’s been used to make bombs.

“We’ve been running on those hexamine tablets since 1975, before that it was methylated spirits – but then in the 70s someone burnt themselves on that so we went to this fuel tablet.”

I still have my meths powered steam roller from the early 70's.

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Inflation Rises To 2.2%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the cost of living, increased by 2.2% in the 12 months leading up to July 2024. This marks the first rise in inflation since December, and it slightly surpasses the Bank of England's target of 2%.

The underlying figures are encouraging:

-CPI (YoY): 2.2% vs. 2.3% exp. (prior 2.0%) 

-CPI (MoM): -0.2% vs. -0.1% exp. (prior 0.1%) 

-Core CPI (YoY): 3.3% vs. 3.4% exp. (prior 3.5%) 

-CPI Services (YoY): 5.2% vs. 5.5% exp. (prior 5.7%)

Key Factors

1. Energy Costs: The recent increase is largely attributed to gas and electricity prices, which fell by less than they did a year ago. As energy costs play a significant role in household budgets, this trend has contributed to the overall inflation rate.
2. Hotel Costs: Interestingly, hotel costs fell in July after strong growth in June, partially offsetting the impact of rising energy prices.
3. Historical Context: While prices are now rising faster across the UK compared to previous months, the current pace remains slower than during the challenging years of 2022 and 2023 when households faced higher energy and food bills.

The Road Ahead

The Bank of England anticipates further inflation increases this year before a subsequent decline. Keep an eye out for additional inflation figures, as well as employment and wages data, which will be released before the next rate-setting meeting in September.

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Nikkei Crashes By Over 12%

Japan's equity markets experienced a seismic shock today, with the Nikkei 225 index suffering its largest points drop in history. The plunge was triggered by a combination of factors, including concerns about the US economy and the yen carry trade.

The Crash:

Nikkei 225: The benchmark Nikkei 225 index plummeted 12.4% today, wiping out 27% of its value since its peak on July 11. This drastic decline puts the Nikkei into bear market territory.

Yen Carry Trade: The yen carry trade, a popular strategy where investors borrow in low-yielding yen to invest in higher-yielding assets elsewhere, has been under scrutiny. The recent appreciation of the Japanese yen (by 10% in the last three weeks) raised fears of large-scale unwinding, affecting global markets.

Stocks Hit the Hardest:

Several key stocks bore the brunt of the crash:
- Tokyo Electron: The chip-making equipment manufacturer tanked 8.4%, significantly impacting the Nikkei index.
- Fast Retailing (Uniqlo): The owner of Uniqlo saw a 4% decline.
- SoftBank Group:The technology investor lost 6.9%.
- TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company): In Taiwan, TSMC, the world's largest chip maker, dropped a staggering 9.8%.

Conclusion

Markets are pricing in a 60% chance of an emergency cut in rates by the Fed this week. Note: markets often get things wrong!

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Rates Cut To 5% - As Explained by "Two Lunches" Bailey

Governor Andrew Bailey explains today’s decision to cut interest rates to 5%. pic.twitter.com/QVpg8FSvcA

— Bank of England (@bankofengland) August 1, 2024

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Rates On Hold

The Monetary Policy Committee voted by a majority of 7-2 to maintain #BankRate at 5.25%.
Find out more: https://t.co/1nN6lt3Feu pic.twitter.com/QfcBpmvXyT

— Bank of England (@bankofengland) June 20, 2024

Under normal circumstances, rates would have fallen today. However, the Bank of England has chosen to do nothing lest it be accused of interfering in the election.

Another reason why Sunak was idiotic to call the election now!

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Inflation Hits 2%

 

In May CPI fell to 2%. Under normal circumstances we would expect the Bank of England to reduce rates tomorrow. However, because we are in the middle of an election, the Bank may well put off any change until after the election in order to avoid being caught up in a political row.

This of course makes Sunak's decision to call an election, before the rate cut, completely barking!

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Russian Bank Run Following US Sanctions

RUBLE IS COLLAPSING

⚡️⚡️⚡️ In St. Petersburg, Russia lines are forming at money changers after the news broke about the new US sanctions that caused the suspension of currency trading on the Moscow Exchange.

👉 The Ruble is going bust!! pic.twitter.com/Im8oLbx7n7

— Jason Jay Smart (@officejjsmart) June 12, 2024

The US has broadened its sanctions on Russia, including a fresh crackdown on banks dealing with sanctioned entities.

It expands a December programme to target foreign banks deemed to be aiding Russia's war effort in Ukraine.

The US also placed sanctions on the Moscow stock exchange, leading to it halt trading in dollars and euros.

It also moved to try to restrict Russia's use of technology, including chips and software.

US President Joe Biden signed an executive order in December that imposed sanctions on banks dealing with about 1,200 individuals and companies deemed to be helping Russia's war machine.

Those measures, which expose banks to the risk of being cut off from the US financial system, have now been expanded to about 4,500 entities.

The US will also target on gold-laundering.

Peter Harrell, a former White House senior director for international economics, told the Reuters news agency that the US "is shifting towards something that begins to look like an effort to set up a global financial embargo on Russia".

As part of this effort, the US Treasury announced that it would impose sanctions on parts of Russia's financial system, including the Moscow Exchange, which is one of Russia's main stock exchanges.

The stock exchange, which is Russia's largest foreign exchange market, said the sanctions had forced it to stop trading in dollars and euros.

The US also focused on technology. Chips and other technology made in the US have been found in downed Russian equipment on Ukraine battlefields, including drones, radios, missiles and armoured vehicles.

As a result of these sanctions announced yesterday, there has be a major run on Russian banks, a fall in the Russian stock exchange and a fall in the Ruble.

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NatWest Outage

 

NatWest suffered a severe system outage this morning both online and on their app for several hours.

It seems to be up and running now.

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Inflation Falls To 2.3%

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has stated that the UK inflation rate fell to 2.3% in the year to April 2024. This decline marks the lowest annual rate of price rises since July 2021 when it was at 2%. Here are the key points:

1. Energy Prices: The significant drop in inflation is primarily driven by cooling energy prices. Specifically, prices of electricity, gas, and other fuels fell by 27.1% in the year to April, which is the largest decrease since records began in 1989.

2. Core Inflation: Despite the overall decline, core inflation remains elevated. The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) rose by 3.8% in the 12 months to March 2024, unchanged from February. On a monthly basis, CPIH increased by 0.6% in March 2024, compared to a rise of 0.7% in March 2023.

3. Interest Rates: The drop in inflation could potentially bring the UK closer to the Bank of England's target of 2%. This development may impact interest rate decisions in the near future.

In summary, while overall inflation has eased due to energy price reductions, core inflation remains a concern. Keep an eye on how these figures evolve in the coming months! 

For more detailed information, you can refer to the official ONS report .

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