Thursday, November 23, 2023

Autumn Statement Summarised

The 2023 Autumn Statement, delivered by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt on November 22, 2023, outlined a series of measures aimed at tackling inflation, boosting economic growth, and supporting households and businesses. Here's a summary of the key points along with their potential pros and cons:

Key Points:

  1. Tax Cuts for Working People: The income tax threshold will be increased to £17,000, and the National Insurance rate will be cut for earnings below £50,250.

Pros:

  • Increased disposable income for individuals, potentially boosting consumer spending.
  • Reduced tax burden for low- and middle-income earners.

Cons:

  • Limited impact on high-income earners, who may not see a significant benefit.
  • Potential for increased government borrowing.
  1. Support for Businesses: Full expensing for capital spending by businesses will be made permanent, encouraging investment and growth.

Pros:

  • Increased investment in plant and machinery, potentially boosting productivity and innovation.
  • Enhanced competitiveness for UK businesses.

Cons:

  • Potential for increased government borrowing.
  • Limited impact on businesses facing other challenges, such as supply chain disruptions.
  1. Measures to Reduce Inflation: The government will continue to support the Bank of England's efforts to control inflation, including through measures to reduce public spending.

Pros:

  • Potential to bring inflation under control, protecting household budgets and business operations.
  • Maintaining fiscal discipline and reducing government borrowing.

Cons:

  • Potential impact on essential public services and infrastructure investments.
  • Short-term economic pain as interest rates may rise further.

National Insurance (NI) Cut:

  • The NI rate will be cut from 12% to 10% for earnings below £50,250, effective from April 2024.

Pros:

  • This cut will provide an average annual saving of £330 for workers earning £30,000 per year.
  • It will increase take-home pay for low- and middle-income earners.

Cons:

  • The cut will have a limited impact on high-income earners.
  • It may not be sufficient to offset the impact of rising inflation and other costs of living.

Full Expensing for Capital Spending:

  • Full expensing for capital spending by businesses will be made permanent, allowing businesses to deduct the full cost of qualifying plant and machinery from their taxable profits in the year of purchase.

Pros:

  • This measure will encourage businesses to invest in new equipment and technology, which could boost productivity and innovation.
  • It will make the UK more competitive.

Cons:

  • The measure is likely to be expensive for the government, as it will reduce tax revenue.
  • It may not be effective in stimulating investment in all sectors of the economy.

Freezing of Alcohol Duties:

  • Alcohol duties will be frozen for a year, providing a small tax cut for alcohol producers and consumers.

Pros:

  • The freeze will provide some relief to the alcohol industry, which has been struggling with higher costs and supply chain disruptions.
  • It may also lead to lower prices for consumers.

Cons:

  • The freeze will have a limited impact on overall government revenue.
  • It may be seen as a regressive measure, as it benefits higher-income earners who are more likely to consume alcohol.

Additional Measures:

  • The government will invest £4.5 billion in British manufacturing to increase investment in eight sectors across the UK.
  • The government will provide £2.4 billion in funding for research and development to support innovation and growth.
  • The government will invest £1.5 billion in skills training to help people get into work and develop the skills they need to succeed in the 21st-century economy.

These measures are part of a broader government strategy to boost economic growth, improve productivity, and level up the economy across the UK. The success of this strategy will depend on a number of factors, including the global economic outlook, the government's ability to implement its plans effectively, and the response of businesses and individuals.

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Wednesday, November 22, 2023

Sid's Back!


 

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Autumn Statement Live

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Tuesday, November 21, 2023

"Unexpected Fiscal Headroom" - Michael Brown Nails It!

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Monday, November 20, 2023

Altman To Join Microsoft

Sam Altman, the recently ousted CEO of OpenAI, is joining Microsoft along with Greg Brockman another ex OpenAI board member.

This means that OpenAI's "plan" to ensure the market of AI remains "open" has just imploded rather spectacularly.

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Wednesday, November 15, 2023

Inflation Falls To 4.6%


 

The rate of inflation has fallen to 4.6% (expected rate 4.8%).

Primarily as a result of falling energy prices, monetary tightening and lower global commodity prices.

Producer input prices fell by 2.6% in the year to October (down further from -2.1% in September), and producer output (factory gate) prices fell by 0.6% (down from +0.2% in September).

Whilst the Bank of England won't be rushing to cut rates, it is clear that it won't be raising them either! 

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Thursday, November 02, 2023

Bank of England Holds Rates at 5.25%

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Wednesday, October 18, 2023

Inflation Flatlines at 6.7%

Inflation stays unchanged at 6.7% in September. 

This is slightly above the expectations of 6.6%. However, it is still below where the Bank of England thought it would be at 6.9%.

Next month the figure will fall significantly because of the fall in the price cap, and tightening credit conditions.

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Friday, October 06, 2023

Metro Bank Hits The Skids


 

Metro Bank was once the darling of the British banking sector. It was founded in 2010 and quickly gained a reputation for its innovative approach to customer service. The bank offered seven-day-a-week opening hours, a free dog biscuit with every account opening, and even a dog walking service.

Metro Bank's shares soared in the early years, and the bank was valued at over £2 billion at its peak. However, things started to go wrong in 2019. The bank was found to have overstated its asset values by £1 billion, and it was forced to raise emergency capital.

Metro Bank's shares have been in freefall ever since. They are now down over 90% from their peak, and the bank is worth less than £200 million.

So what went wrong?

There are a number of factors that have contributed to Metro Bank's downfall. One is that the bank grew too quickly. It opened hundreds of new branches in a short period of time, and it was unable to keep up with the regulatory requirements.

Another factor is that Metro Bank made a number of bad loans. The bank lent heavily to commercial property developers, and many of these loans have gone sour.

Finally, Metro Bank has been hit by a number of scandals. In 2019, the bank was fined £10 million by the Financial Conduct Authority for overstating its asset values. And in 2023, the bank was fined £2 million for failing to properly report suspicious transactions.

Metro Bank's story is a cautionary tale for other banks and financial institutions. It shows that it is important to grow at a sustainable pace and to make sound lending decisions. It also shows that banks need to have strong compliance and risk management systems in place.

Metro is currently seeking to shore up its balance sheet by £600M. It is unlikely to raise this money.

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Monday, October 02, 2023

Michael Lewis "FTX Was Not A Ponzi Scheme"

TWAT!

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Thursday, September 21, 2023

Bank of England Holds Rates at 5.25%

 

The MPC voted 5-4 to hold rates at this level.

The question is how long will the rate remain at this level, before the Bank starts to reduce it?

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Wednesday, September 20, 2023

Inflation Falls To 6.7%

With the much better than expected inflation figures some people are expecting that the Bank of England will not raise rates tomorrow.

That would require intelligence and flexibility from Bailey and the dullards on the MPC!

via GIPHY


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Friday, September 15, 2023

Discord at The ECB

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Thursday, September 14, 2023

Apple's Watch Series 9 - Go Woke Go Broke!

 Translating the hype :

1 Powered by coal

2 30% more microplastics by weight for your intake

3 Shipped by sea in oil powered container ships

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Wednesday, September 13, 2023

July GDP Falls 0.5%


 

The ONS estimates of July's GDP shows a fall of 0.5%.

However, as with all ONS figures, this should be taken with a very large pinch of salt. As I have noted many times before, as evidenced by fact, ONS figures are notoriously unreliable and are rotuinely revised upwards.

As such, using their figures to make economic decisions is as reliable as reading the entrails of a goat.

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